THE RAZUMKOV CENTRE NEWSLETTER No.24 (9 OCTOBER 2015) CONTENTS IT IS STILL POSSIBLE TO CORRECT MISTAKES IN THE BILL ON THE AMENDMENTS TO THE CONSTITUTION OF UKRAINE DOMESTIC POLICY................................1 Currently there is a problem of the possibility to amend the Constitution in the NATIONAL SECURITY conditions of the actual martial law as Article 157 of the Basic Law says that AND DEFENCE....................3 the Constitution should not be amended under the martial law. I think that the FOREIGN POLICY................5 Constitution should be touched only in quiet times. ECONOMY..........................5 There is no doubt that, in fact, there are the conditions of martial law in Ukraine — there is an ongoing war. However, we, the lawyers, should focus on official things. ENERGY...........................6 Officially, nobody announced martial law in our country, Although the president, SOCIAL POLICY...................6 given the situation, not only had the right but was obliged to introduce martial law. This should not have been done nationwide — just in several oblasts. SOCIOLOGY........................7 Although there are more than enough signs of war, it has not been officially THE RAZUMKOV announced. Respectively, if we have already started the process of constitutional CENTRE NEWS...................8 amendments, it should be completed. Even the left had the change of mind — they realised that they were involved in historic decisions. Some of them were no longer included into electoral lists for their “wrong” votes but they did their job, and they should be given their due. In the parliament of the first convocations, there was no economic component — commercialisation of the Verkhovna Rada started to take place towards the 1998 parliamentary election. Of course, when looking at the current parliament, one understands what mechanisms operate there. In the long run, we do not have a mixed parliamentary and presidential republic. Furthermore, we cannot talk about the prospect of a mixed parliamentary and presidential republic because we just have no real parties. All that we have is political projects. Now in the Verkhovna Rada we can see not parliamentary work but It is difficult to say whether there will be the resolving political and behind the scenes issues. amount of votes in the parliament needed for Let us bear in mind that there was this Coalition these amendments. I do not rule out that these 300 Agreement. What has been implemented of it? votes can be assembled with a variety of methods. Clearly, we cannot talk about the development However, in order for the society not to get a of parliamentarism. As long as the society final impression that someone wants to take over tolerates it, we are doomed. Indeed, the civil the power, this should not be done. The experts society is waking up, people want to be involved suggest — and the government see themselves — in the processes — the Euromaidan is a proof of that this bill should be revised. Now it is still possible to correct the mistakes, submit it to the it. However, civil society has failed to become a Constitutional Court again, and pre-vote it in this subject of relations; it has failed to get organised. session. Then — a final vote in February next year. Until the society comes to a conclusion that it is We still have time to conduct this process properly, necessary to create real parties, there will be no and introduce the necessary amendments to the result. bill. Full text Many questions arise to the state of modern parliamentarism. The first parliament actually adopted the decision and founded the state, The second one gave the Constitution. We Legal Research Consultant had to negotiate with the communists, and we of the Razumkov Centre succeeded. Viktor MUSIYAKA www.razumkov.org.ua 1 UKRAINIANS LOST CONFIDENCE IN THE AUTHORITIES AND INCREASINGLY RELY ONLY ON THEMSELVES Two thirds of Ukrainians believe that the country is However, almost half of the Ukrainians believe that developing in the wrong direction. New authorities with the country can overcome the problems in the long a new level of trust and hope for reform really caused term. We can also see that the changes that have begun some euphoria. However, all this was combined with the in the society continue. Unfortunately, these changes loss of Crimea and hostilities in Donbas. Therefore, there have not yet transferred to the authorities. However, we was no great euphoria. At the same time, Ukrainians are can see that the volunteer movement, broadly speaking, has not died out although euphoria has passed. People really very pessimistic and sceptical about the economic continue to do something; Ukrainians are beginning to situation, the pace of reforms, and the level of fighting rely more and more on themselves. I think that certain corruption. optimism is related precisely to this. Of course, having In general, the opinion is very low on all the reforms. the power leverage, it is much easier to make any changes. However, if the authorities do not want to do For example, on a scale of 1 to 10, most reforms were this, the citizen probably can but it will take much more rated below 3. Only the reform of the law enforcement time and effort. system was rated higher — the average score is 3.56. The national security and defence reform — 3.36; Full text promoting Ukraine in the world — 4.24. So even these more successful reforms are rated very low. On the former school scale of 1 to 5, it is around two and a half. Director of Sociological Service The rest is just two. So, indeed, the reforms are rated of the Razumkov Centre pretty badly. Andriy BYCHENKO EARLY PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION WILL ONLY HINDER MODERNISATION OF THE COUNTRY In Ukraine, certain political parties, and financial inside the country to demand early election. The and industrial groups are trying to provoke early motivation of old and new players is clear. parliamentary election. Firstly, there are attempts to reincarnate the Party of Ukraine does not need early parliamentary election Regions and its political heirs. now. Now it is a special stage in the life of the state when 2 it is necessary to focus on the issues of modernisation. Secondly, business groups that are not represented When we speak of reform, we should understand that in the government are coming into the political arena. someone has to take political responsibility and do not They want to get in locally and beyond. Someone is what is pleasant for voters but what the country needs. unhappy about the policy of deoligarchisation and wants to get his position back. That is why political projects If we find ourselves in the state of an election are quickly appearing now, designed only to access campaign, and we are already partly in it (local election power. They are not representatives of the people. They is coming), we will see the work of the Verkhovna are only called parties but, in fact, they are technical Rada paralysed. Before an election, politicians resort projects. If parliamentary election was held under these to populism and big promises. They may ignore their circumstances, imagine the result. A bunch of varied obligations stated in the coalition agreement in the sake opposition to the parties that have taken responsibility of rankings and likes of voters. Such situation leads and are loosing the ranking because of unpopular to the fact that the work of the parliament becomes decisions will appear. This election would have formed a ineffective. Now efficiency is needed more than ever. destructive balance of power. The package of laws on the entry into force of the Full text EU Association Agreement requires coordinated and synchronised work of the Parliament and the Cabinet of Ministers. If we unbalance the connection between legislative and executive branches of the government Deputy Director, Director again, we will go back. It is unclear where we will start of Political and Legal Programmes of again. the Razumkov Centre Yuriy YAKYMENKO It is political ambitions that are pushing the forces IN THE DECISION TO POSTPONE THE “ELECTION” IN THE SO CALLED LPR AND DPR, RUSSIAN POSITION IS CLEARLY VISIBLE The decision to postpone the “election” in the LPR Of course, the fact that the “election” on 18 October and DPR is not an independent decision of the militants and 1 November will not be held will make it possible but the decision of Russia indicating what they should to hold another election provided for by the Minsk and should not do at the moment. This tactical move is Agreement, according to the plan of resolving the another delay to make Ukraine fulfil the requirements of conflict in Eastern Ukraine. So this can be considered the enemy. These requirements of the militants (which, a certain condition to take further steps for Ukraine by the way, do not cancel the “election” but postpone to regain control over the occupied areas of Donbas. it) were announced on 6 October. Among them, there However, in fact, there is no guarantee that these steps is special status of part of Donbas, prevention of will be taken and give results. So, there are conditions the prosecution of the militants, and amendments but no guarantee of the result. to the Constitution of Ukraine after consulting the Full text representatives of the DPR and LPR. Here, the Russian position is clearly visible, which thus seeks to fully Deputy Director, Director of Political implement its goals under the guise of the alleged and Legal Programmes of the Razumkov Centre implementation of the Minsk Agreements. Yuriy YAKYMENKO www.razumkov.org.ua 2 National Security and Defence UKRAINE IS ABLE TO PRODUCE ONLY A SMALL NUMBER OF WEAPONS INDEPENDENTLY Protective and defensive weapons which the assistance — in particular, as one of the indicators, for U.S.