MONTHLY September 2018 MONTHLY August 2018 The publication prepared exclusively for PERN S.A. Date of publication in the public domain: 17th September 2018. CONTENTS 3 14 29 RUSSIAN SPY RUSSIA LOSES RUSSIA’S S-300 IN SYRIA: IN ESTONIAN ARMY “OIL LEADERSHIP” SHOIGU VERSUS ISRAEL RUSSIAN SPY IN KREMLIN’S TOP SECRET 3 ESTONIAN ARMY INFORMATION ABOUT RUSSIAN 18 MERCENARIES RUSSIA’S OIL MANEUVER 4 COSTLY FOR LUKASHENKO? TRUMP’S “HAWK” RICK PERRY THREATENS RUSSIA WITH NEW EN ROUTE FROM SYRIA: 20 SANCTIONS SPECULATIONS AROUND 6 ABKHAZIAN PM’S DEATH MOSCOW TO PREPARE SERBIAN 21 INTRIGUE “BLINDING” THE USA: RUSSIAN 7 BOMBERS NEAR ALASKA OPEC REJECTS TRUMP’S CALL, 23 RUSSIA TO WAIT UNTIL NOVEMBER PUTIN SURPRISES JAPAN: 9 A TRICK IN VLADIVOSTOK PUTIN’S FAVORITE INVOLVED 24 IN FRAUD SCANDAL REGIONAL ELECTIONS: THE PENSION REFORM HAS RUSSIANS DISSATISFIED WITH 10 WEAKENED THE RULING PARTY PUTIN’S REGIME: KREMLIN’S 26 WORST RATINGS IN FIVE YEARS 12 PURGE IN DONETSK KREMLIN’S FIGHT FOR REGIONS: 13 GAZPROM’S “BLACK THURSDAY” 27 NEW GOVERNOR ELECTED RUSSIA LOSES “OIL LEADERSHIP” RUSSIA’S S-300 IN SYRIA: SHOIGU 14 29 VERSUS ISRAEL ADYROV’S OIL VICTORY 16 K TATARSTAN’S TATNEFT SETS 30 AMBITIOUS GOALS RUSSIAN OIL PRODUCERS 17 HAVE REASONS TO BE SATISFIED www.warsawinstitute.org 2 SOURCE: MIL.EE 5 September 2018 RUSSIAN SPY IN ESTONIAN ARMY The Estonian authorities have recently announced that they had arrested two people suspected of spying for Russia. The detainees – father and son, Russians with Estonian passports – worked for the GRU, Russia’s main military intelligence agency. Such is yet another case of revealing Russian spying activity by the Estonian counterintelligence services; however, it is the first time that an army officer has been arrested and accused of state treason. And the fact that it was possible to disclose some information seems to confirm that any personal contacts – also from the period of the Soviet occupation – may be dangerous from the state’s point of view. Thanks to them, the Russian services manage to recruit their agents, even after many years. n September 5, Estonia’s officials Moreover, Estonian officials disclosed the Oinformed that they had arrested two names of suspects: they are Russian-Estonian men suspected of spying for Russia. The citizens: Deniss Metsavas, born in 1980, and decision on their arrest was issued by the state his father, Pjotr Volin, born in 1953. Metsavas prosecutor’s office. Both men were suspected just finished his active service in the Estonian of passing Estonian state secrets and other Defense Forces (EDF); he was due to take up classified information to the GRU offices, as a position in the Kaitseliit volunteer defense informed during a joint press conference of league. He served in the army since 1998. In the prosecutor’s office, the Estonian Internal his career, he worked as an artillery officer Security Service (KaPo) and Commander of as well as he held a position in the General the Armed Forces. Staff. In 2014, he was advanced to the rank of www.warsawinstitute.org 3 major. He allegedly came into contact with the turned out that Russian intelligence services GRU structures through his father – during do not hesitate to use family connections. the Soviet occupation of Estonia, Volin served Metsavas was 11 years old when Estonia in the KGB frontier guard department. So it regained independence. He had attended is very likely that the Russian services used Estonian school before starting his career in some contacts from that period to recruit both military structures. In addition, the Estonian officers. Both officers worked for GRU for media presented him in the positive light: the last five years and they were paid for all as an example of patriotism and attachment information transferred. of an ethnic Russian to his Estonian homeland. And, first, the case hit the image Such state treason clearly depicts how of the army as well as puts into question its dangerous the Soviet past of Estonian citizens counterintelligence security. Secondly, it might appear to be. After 1991, Volin, as may be harmful for the entire community of a former KGB frontier guard, had no chance Russians living in Estonia – especially from to obtain a position that would allow him the point of view of Estonia’s security interests. to have access to any state secrets. But it 9 September 2018 RUSSIA’S OIL MANEUVER COSTLY FOR LUKASHENKO? Moscow has recently threatened Minsk with limiting Russian oil supplies while the Belarusian authorities are able to buy raw material on preferential terms, process it in their own refineries as well as to export – as revenues of this market constitute one of the most important sources of funding to the state budget. But the Russians argue that the current mechanism cannot be profitable from an economic point of view; moreover, maintaining the existing state of matters may be a consequence of changes in the taxation of the oil sector in Russia. Nonetheless, it may be noticed that Moscow’s recent announcement correspond to a series of decisions that cooled the diplomatic relations between both countries – as evidenced by appointing Mikhail Babich new ambassador of Russia to Belarus – against the will of President Lukashenko. Thus, it does not come as a surprise that the Kremlin is already tired by his regime and has intention of introducing some changes to Belarus’s political system so as to perceive the state not in terms of an ally but rather of a vassal that does not need any financial support from Moscow. In addition, Russia fears that time is not on its side as Belarus intends to construct its own nuclear power plant, which will potentially result in reducing the state’s dependence on Russian energy resources. elarus and Russia are still negotiating Russian oil products to Minsk while Russia’s Bthe volume of raw materials supplies Energy Minister Alexander Novak assessed in 2019. Moscow has already announced that providing a country’s neighbour with that it might be possible to limit supplies of petroleum products in hitherto quantities www.warsawinstitute.org 4 SOURCE: KREMLIN.RU could not be justified from an economic point of a “hidden subsidy for Belarus’s economy.” of view as they could be also re-exported According to his estimations, only in the first through the territory of Belarus. As for Minsk, half of this year, Russia lost as much as 10 it reacted as one could have expected: on billion roubles – interestingly, the state noted September 3, chairman of the Belarusian the same loss also in 2017. state petrochemical concern Belneftekhim, Andrey Rybakou, said that any possible lack However, this situation is now expected to of raw material would impede the work of change as Russia is planning to introduce the local refineries and would negatively affect so-called tax maneuver in its oil sector. And their competitiveness on the market as well as the point is that Russia intends to abolish it would constitute a blatant violation of any any oil tariffs by 2025 as well as to increase rules of the Eurasian Economic Union. mining taxes. Belarus, which has hitherto purchased duty-free oil from its neighbour, However, Moscow claims that it has no will lose its important privilege and have intention to subsidize the Belarusian economy to pay the same amount as other foreign in such an “unclear” way; moreover, the recipients. And the price will only rocket due Kremlin said that Minsk has been paying to the planned tax maneuver. But Moscow low prices for Russian fuels while selling its states the matter in a clear way: Belarus may own petroleum products abroad, thanks to launch negotiations provided that Russia is which the state budget gets some considerable offered certain money compensation. Sazanov revenues. According to some information believes that any steps undertaken by Russia by the Belarusian media, Russia intends to – contrary to the Belarusian point of view limit supply of its petroleum products to – are not incompatible with the agreement Belarus to a quantity that would correspond on the Eurasian Economic Union as the tax to the country’s internal needs, starting from maneuver is Russia’s internal matter and does the fourth quarter of 2018. Director of the not violate any international arrangements. Tax and Customs Policy Department at the Russian Ministry of Finance Alexey Sazanov Belarus’s Finance Ministry has already said he envisaged the possibility of a drastic estimated that the state budget revenues in reduction from 2 million tons to no more 2019-2024 would significantly drop as than 100-300 thousand tons per year. He also a result of the so-called tax maneuver. That criticized that “nobody even noticed” when is why Minsk has no intention of letting the Minsk was offered support in the form of mater go – on September 4, the country’s customs preferences, which constituted a kind Foreign Minister expressed his hope that the www.warsawinstitute.org 5 upcoming meeting of heads of states and any duties due to its membership within government representatives would make it the Eurasian Economic Union. Its current possible to remove any existing discrepancies. price is on average two times lower than On September 5, the Kremlin confirmed Gazprom’s regular export fee. Following the that Vladimir Putin would pay a visit to the full launching of the nuclear power plant in Belarusian city of Mogilev on October 11-12. the Belarusian city of Astravyets, Belarus may It seems certain that one of the topics to be reduce the amount of gas purchased from discussed will concern the issue of Russian Russia even by 18.5 percent – interestingly, gas exports to Belarus.