The London School of Economics and Political Science Power of the Masses Group Size, Attribution, and the Politics of Export Bans in Africa Daniel Nicolai Schulz A thesis submitted to the Department of International Development of the London School of Economics for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, London, November 2019 1 Declaration I certify that the thesis I have presented for examination for the PhD degree of the London School of Economics and Political Science is solely my own work other than where I have clearly indicated that it is the work of others (in which case the extent of any work carried out jointly by me and any other person is clearly identified in it). The copyright of this thesis rests with the author. Quotation from it is permitted, provided that full acknowledgement is made. This thesis may not be reproduced without my prior written consent. I warrant that this authorisation does not, to the best of my belief, infringe the rights of any third party. I declare that my thesis consists of 97,373 words. 2 Abstract This thesis sets out to answer the question why African governments aiming to industrialize their economies introduce export bans on some processable commodities and not on others. It makes the argument that policy-makers avoid imposing export bans on commodities produced by a large share of the population because bans create a context in which politically dangerous producer mobilization is very likely. Export bans severely reduce producer prices. Since these are imposed at the border, beyond producers’ usual field of vision, producers normally struggle to see the origin of these price distortions. Equally negatively affected by bans, raw commodity traders, however, have the knowledge, motivation, and capacity to inform producers about the ban and organize their protest against it, therefore making mass mobilization likely. Traders and producers react to high export taxes in similar ways, but protests do not tend to arise in reaction to low export taxes. In the latter case, traders are usually able to pass price distortions on to producers. They, therefore, have a lesser incentive to engage in the costly endeavour of setting up cross-group defence coalitions. Seeing how producer mobilization is less likely in reaction to the imposition of low export taxes, imposition, even on large groups, poses no significant risk to policy-makers. To test my argument against competing explanations, I employ a mixed-method design. First, I conduct a large-N analysis based on an original dataset covering all export bans and taxes employed in 36 African states in the last three decades. Holding a range of competing political and economic variables constant, the analysis finds robust support for the core hypothesis: the larger the share of the population producing a commodity, the less likely governments will impose export bans on them. As expected, this also holds for high but not for low export taxes. Second, based on eight months of fieldwork, my comparative analyses of six country-commodities in Ghana, Kenya, and Tanzania further substantiate these results and mechanisms. Overall, these findings provide new insights into the critical role politics play in industrial policy-making in Africa and show that African mass producer groups can overcome collective action problems to oppose policies adverse to their interests in certain circumstances. 3 Acknowledgements My first thanks must go to my supervisors Catherine Boone and Ken Shadlen. Their dedication and precision consistently pushed me to dig deeper, think further, and write sharper. I am truly grateful to them for going above and beyond by commenting rapidly and constructively on uncountable stages and versions of the thesis. Their work was and remains an inspiration for my thesis and future projects. I am grateful to the numerous other people who provided me with helpful feedback and advice throughout my time at LSE, particularly Elliott Green, Kate Meagher, James Putzel, Diana Weinhold, Joachim Wehner, Kai Spiekermann, Ryan Jablonski, David Keen, and Robert Wade. I also want to thank Tim Forsyth for giving me the opportunity to teach with him as well as Susan Hoult, Nina Craven, and the PhD Academy for their fantastic job at guiding us through the PhD. I would also like to thank the participants at workshops and conferences that commented on my drafts, and the reviewers and editors that provided feedback on those parts of the thesis that are in the process of publication. Particular appreciation is due to Andy Harris, Martha Johnson, Henry Thomson, Nicolas van de Walle, Jan Pierskalla, Jacob Hensing, and participants at the European WGAPE meeting, the DSA Annual Meetings, the APCG Online Colloquium, the ASA-UK Biennial Meeting and the APSA Annual Meeting. I am indebted to my brilliant colleagues in Manchester at the Effective States and Inclusive Development Research Centre, above all Tim Kelsall, Sam Hickey, Julia Brunt, and Kunal Sen. Their belief in my work has allowed me to pursue my longstanding academic dream to measure many previously unmeasured political economy variables across much of the Global South in parallel to writing this thesis. I am very grateful for each person that I met during my fieldwork in Ghana, Kenya, Tanzania and beyond, who took the time to talk to me. By sharing their views, they shaped my way of thinking and set the basis for this thesis. I am indebted to the many people that have hosted me throughout these eight months, shared contacts with me, and made my fieldwork a beautiful experience that I will cherish for the rest of my life. In Ghana, particular appreciation is due to Abdul-Gafaru Abdulai, Maike and Silas Ewunto, the staff at the African Cashew Initiative and the African 4 Cashew Alliance, my friends Priscilla Addison, Manuel Sampson, Alexander Afram, as well as Maxwell Amponsah and my other wonderful flatmates at the Africa House. In Tanzania, I want to express a special thanks to Emmanuel S. Kigadye, Thabit Jacob, Michaela Collard, the staff at the ESRF, Hazel Gray, Dan Paget and the Fathers and fellow lodgers at the Passionist’s Fathers Guest House. Lastly, in Kenya, I am particularly indebted to the Mbates, Mara Köberle, Matt Tyce, Julia and Diego Hakspiel, Geoffrey Lugano, George Ndungu’u, Nasirudin Elias as well as members and staff at the British Institute in East Africa. This research project and the resulting thesis were a special time of my life and I would like to thank my friends who were part of this journey and the people I met on the way. Particularly the community of PhD students at LSE has been a constant source of solidarity and inspiration. I owe special thanks to Max Gallien, Jan Stuckatz, Carolin Dieterle, Allison Benson, Musa Kpaka, McDonald Lewanika, and Florian Weigand, who had to endure numerous conversations on my dissertation, helped me through more than one crisis, and were incredibly hospital in hosting me in between fieldwork stints. It was also a pleasure to learn from and walk the PhD journey with Guoer, Konstantinos, Michael and Kara as well as Benjamin, Portia, Camille, Yuezhou, Maria, Eduardo, Claudia, Hosna, Isaac, and Liz in other cohorts. Lastly, the fellows in the department have always been a great source of inspiration and advice for me, particularly Eyob Gebremariam, Florian Schäfer, and, most importantly, Pritish Behuria, a friend and advisor inside and outside of academia. I dedicate this thesis to those who have suffered me the longest – my family. I cannot thank my parents enough for their unconditional love, unwavering faith in me, always standing by my side, and never losing interest in my stories. I am particularly grateful to my brother, Johannes, who has been my role model in academia and beyond. His testing of and guidance through the sometimes rough and uncertain waters of academe have made my PhD journey so much more enjoyable. And I could not agree more with him when he says that the last four years have felt as if we were walking this path together. My greatest debt of gratitude is owed to my partner in life, Alexandra. Thank you for your love, your friendship, your kindness, for tolerating my terrible working hours (and the many bad jokes), supporting my long travels, and always being there when I needed you. I could not have written this thesis without you. 5 Table of Contents Declaration ...................................................... 2 Abstract ........................................................... 3 Acknowledgements ......................................... 4 Table of Contents ............................................ 6 List of Figures ............................................... 11 List of Tables ................................................ 13 List of Abbreviations .................................... 14 Chapter 1. Introduction ....................................................................................... 20 Chapter 2. Literature Review, Export Ban Patterns, and Commodity ‘Bannability’ ......................................................................................................... 28 2.1. A Short Review of the Literature on Export Restrictions .......................... 28 2.2. Introducing the Export Prohibition and Taxation in Africa Dataset .......... 31 2.3. Export Bans in Africa: Trends and Patterns ............................................... 33 2.4. Export Bans and Economic Feasibility: Narrowing the Scope .................. 42 Chapter 3. Theoretical Argument and Alternative Explanations ..................