TERRORISM THREAT & MITIGATION REPORT 2019 2/ 53 TERRORISM THREAT & MITIGATION REPORT 2019 3/ 53 01/ TERRORISM THREAT & MITIGATION REPORT 2019 4/ 53 POOL RE’S RESPONSE TO THE EVOLVING THREATS OF TERRORISM I am pleased to present this year’s the tools and information it needs to Terrorism Threat & Mitigation Report, evaluate, price, manage and mitigate our fourth to date. Since 2016, and terrorism risk to a degree hitherto the creation of our Terrorism Research unseen in this country. We expect and Analysis Centre (TRAC), we have as a result to see further increases produced an annual report examining in the amount of risk Members are the terrorism risk landscape globally prepared to take, while simultaneously and in the UK. This 2019 edition, continuing to diversify the UK’s Julian Enoizi however, marks an exciting turning financial exposure through the growing Chief Executive Officer point not only for the company’s involvement of the global reinsurance / Pool Re flagship risk report, but also for TRAC and capital markets. We are also and Pool Re’s broader terrorism risk committed to continuing to unite analysis expertise. commercial, academic and political Julian Enoizi has been CEO of Pool engagement in understanding and Re for six years. Previously he was The publication accompanies the bridging protection and information CEO of ProSight at Lloyd’s. Julian launch of Pool Re Solutions, a new gaps, building on our success held senior executive roles with in-house centre of excellence within in relation to Non-Damage Business AIG Europe and Chubb Insurance Pool Re which will streamline and Interruption (NDBI) and cyber terrorism. Company of Europe based in amplify our emphasis over the past London, Paris and Brussels. Julian five years on risk awareness, risk As the analysis in this report is a graduate of the Universities modelling, and risk management. demonstrates, terrorist groups of Birmingham and Limoges, France. As the terrorism threat continues to have shown themselves to be He holds an LLB (Hons) degree in change and become more complex, highly adaptable and innovative. Law and French Law and a Diplôme there has emerged a corresponding The contemporary terrorist threat is D’Etudes Juridiques Françaises. He need for Pool Re to support its more diffuse and complicated than is a qualified lawyer and practised in Members with an equally dynamic ever before, and radically different London, Milan and Brussels before set of underwriting tools, technical from the IRA threat Pool Re was embarking on his insurance career. services, training, and insight, to created in response to. The threat support the traditional provision of of ‘spectacular’, 9/11-style attacks reinsurance cover. remains a tangible risk. However, contemporary Islamist and, Solutions represents a significant increasingly, right-wing extremists development in Pool Re’s offering to aim to cause mass casualties, the UK’s terrorism risk market, since attacking unprotected targets it has been designed to provide and rather than focusing on hardened stimulate the insurance industry with commercial or government targets. TERRORISM THREAT & MITIGATION REPORT 2019 5/ 53 THE THREE PILLARS OF POOL RE SOLUTIONS Horizon scanning and investing in the can do to protect themselves and techniques by building pathways We are very grateful for the research necessary to understand extended this year to agreeing to which link government agencies, contributions made by our guest the parameters of evolving or finance a unique information exchange academia, risk professionals and the writers, who bring a different emerging threats is a responsibility platform run by the Metropolitan insurance industry. Indeed, the latest perspective and experience to the we take seriously, as is increasing the Police, to allow the industry to CONTEST report recognises Pool Re challenges of delivering enduring commercial viability of risks which are benefit from the expertise of the and the insurance industry’s potential counter-terrorism strategies. I very difficult to insure, and future-proofing UK’s counter-terrorism agencies. to shape Insureds’ behaviour and much hope you enjoy the articles UK businesses with the protection improve safety, security and resilience. written by Conrad Prince (former they need. The Solutions platform is RISK MODELLING Director General of Operations at designed to enable Pool Re and its The Risk Modelling division will This recognition is at the heart of our GCHQ), Alexander Babuta (National Members to more effectively and continue to create and build terrorism flagship risk mitigation product, the Security Research Fellow at RUSI), holistically address some of the modelling tools and techniques that Vulnerability Self-Assessment Tool Andrew Silke (Professor of Terrorism market’s persistent challenges, can underpin better pricing and (VSAT). It allows businesses to at Cranfield University) and Jerry such as the problematic low greater deployment of capacity or conduct a detailed security audit to Smith (Senior Partner at CHC Global). take-up of cover by SMEs. capital into terrorism (re)insurance. The UK Government and internationally new paradigm these models represent recognised standards, and trigger It has never been so important for RISK AWARENESS was demonstrated in February this premium discounts, which from Pool Re and its public and private Pool Re’s Risk Awareness division will year, when they were a decisive factor the beginning of 2020 will be rising partners to understand terrorism; build on our current in-house expertise behind Pool Re’s placement of an to 7.5%. In addition, we are also now what drives it, how it manifests now and established reputation as a historic £75 million Insurance Linked delivering terrorism risk management and may manifest in the future; and thought leader in the field by providing Security. The models are being training courses for Member how we can together build lasting analysis, intelligence and expertise on developed in partnership with Company risk engineers. These resilience against a threat which all aspects of the terrorism threat to academia, insurance modelling courses, which are amongst the first above all seeks to destabilise and our private and public stakeholders. experts and government agencies, of their kind, are training risk engineers divide. In that spirit, I trust you will Our strong partnerships with and are a result of Pool Re’s ability to and claims handlers to improve find this report informative. academia, government agencies and bring together such diverse expertise. national terrorism risk literacy and specialist think tanks will inform our integrate terrorism within broader Julian Enoizi regular reporting and workshops, property risk management practice. Chief Executive Officer whilst also supporting our actuarial RISK MANAGEMENT These and other initiatives will Finally, the newly established Risk not only reduce the underlying and modelling capabilities. Our Management division will be working commitment to raising the level of terrorism risk the UK faces, but to become the key facilitator of mitigate and reduce effects of attacks awareness and understanding of terrorism risk management information terrorism risk and what businesses that do occur. TERRORISM THREAT & MITIGATION REPORT 2019 6/ 53 02/ TERRORISM THREAT & MITIGATION REPORT 2019 7/ 53 ENDURING AND THE THREAT LANDSCAPE MULTIFARIOUS IN THE UK REMAINS VERY THREATS COMPLEX AND INCREASINGLY Reflecting on the last 12 months, it attacks, targeting crowded places Daesh’s forces in Syria and Iraq may would superficially appear that the and iconic targets. Moreover, it is have been seriously degraded, and threat posed by Islamist extremism continually evolving and increasingly with it the group’s ability to directly UNPREDICTABLE peaked during 2017 and that the difficult to predict. These threat actors command and sponsor attacks in followers of Daesh have dispersed to – be they Islamist extremists, Right Western Europe, but its capabilities other ungoverned spaces and failed Wing terrorists (RWT), Left Wing and ability to inspire violence endure. states across the globe. While largely terrorists (LWT) or Violent Dissident The threat of Islamist extremists true that Daesh is adopting a Republicans (VDR) – employ a wide acting alone remains acute, as transnational, affiliated model, the threat array of methodologies, ranging from evidenced by the police and MI5 Ed Butler posed to the UK by Islamist extremism the unsophisticated (knives and undertaking 700 live investigations Chief Resilience Officer remains as high as ever. Of concern is vehicles as weapons) to more at any one time and the interdiction / Pool Re the threat posed by committed Daesh complex attacks involving Improvised of one major late-stage attack plot fighters who may return to the UK with Explosive Devices (IEDs) and firearms. on average every four weeks. Ed Butler, CBE DSO, is Pool Re’s battle honed-skills and the intent to use Increased VDR actions have the Chief Resilience Officer and leads them in attacks, as well as by unknown potential to provoke a response from The defeat of the so-called its Risk Awareness Team. He is lone actors acting independently of any Loyalist paramilitaries, who still exist Caliphate will not have changed the responsible for developing the direction from ‘Daesh central’. The but have almost exclusively been views of core Daesh followers, as company’s capacity and capability threat posed by Al Qaeda (AQ), in focused on criminal activities in