Behavioural Adaptation of Skiers and Snowboarders in the US Northeast to Climate Variability and Change by Kathryn‐Anne Vivian A thesis presented to the University of Waterloo in fulfillment of the thesis requirement for the degree of Master of Environmental Studies in Geography ‐ Tourism Policy and Planning Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, 2011 ©Kathryn‐Anne Vivian 2011 Author’s Declaration I hereby declare that I am the sole author of this thesis. This is a true copy of the thesis, including any required final revisions, as accepted by my examiners. I understand that my thesis may be made electronically available to the public. ii Abstract Climate change has been referred to as the ‘greatest challenge to the sustainability of the global tourism industry in the 21st century’ (UNWTO‐UNEP‐ WMO, 2008). As a result, climate change is one of the most widely discussed environmental and sustainable development topics today. The winter tourism industry has been repeatedly identified as being vulnerable to climate change. The implications for winter tourism include a lack of snow in winter sport destinations, increased snowmaking and operational costs, shorter winter sports season, decreased visitation, and the potential for a loss of ski area operations. The intent of this study was to understand the adaptive behaviours of skiers/snowboarders taken in response to climate conditions. More specifically the objectives of this research were: to examine how skiers/snowboarders have responded to changing snow conditions in the past as well as how they may react in the future, to understand the role of substitution (time, place, activity) within specific behavioural responses to both past and future snow conditions, and to examine the extent to which activity commitment and place loyalty influence climate‐induced behavioural change. Skier/snowboarder surveys were distributed at seven resorts in the New England states of Vermont and New Hampshire during the winter months of February and March 2010. A total of 572 surveys was collected and analyzed. The research findings revealed that skiers and snowboarders in New England are very loyal to their preferred winter resorts and are extremely loyal to the New England region. Only a small percentage of respondents said that they would travel outside New England to find better snow conditions. The level of a skier’s/snowboarder’s involvement in the sport, as well as their level of destination loyalty were also found to be important determinants of substitution behaviors. As climate change causes more significant changes to the mountain landscape and snow conditions, understanding how different tourist segments react to climate change and related environmental change is important for various iii tourism stakeholders: ski resort managers, nearby communities and also states that are dependent on this winter tourism revenue. iv Acknowledgements There are a number of people who have played an integral role in the completion of this thesis. First I would like to thank my supervisor Dan Scott whose knowledge on this topic was invaluable and whose guidance throughout this process was extremely helpful. I would like to thank the SSHRC for providing the research/travel funds necessary to complete this project. I would also like to thank the ski resorts in New England (Loon, Wildcat, Cranmore, Jay Peak, Smugglers Notch, Mad River Glen and Suicide Six) for allowing me to survey their guests, and to the hundreds of skiers/snowboarders who took the time to complete my survey. Finally, I would like to thank my family for their unconditional love and support while completing my thesis. v Table of Contents Author’s Declaration ..............................................................................................................ii Abstract..................................................................................................................................... iii Acknowledgements................................................................................................................. v List of Figures........................................................................................................................viii List of Tables ............................................................................................................................ix Chapter 1: Introduction.........................................................................................................1 1.1 Research Goal and Objectives ............................................................................................... 3 1.2 Study Area.................................................................................................................................... 3 1.3 Outline of the Thesis................................................................................................................. 6 Chapter 2: Literature Review ..............................................................................................7 2.1 Climate Change........................................................................................................................... 7 2.2 Climate Change and Tourism................................................................................................. 8 2.2.1 Implications of Climate Change on Tourism Flows and Seasonality.......................... 11 2.2.2 Implications of Climate Change on Destination Choice.................................................... 13 2.3 Tourist/Recreation Behaviour ...........................................................................................14 2.3.1 Motivation............................................................................................................................................ 15 2.3.2 Substitutability................................................................................................................................... 15 2.3.3 Destination Loyalty .......................................................................................................................... 17 2.3.4 Activity Involvement ....................................................................................................................... 18 2.4 Climate Change and Winter Sports Tourism..................................................................19 2.4.1 Implications of Climate Change for Skiing Supply.............................................................. 20 2.4.2 Climate Change Adaptation in the Ski Industry................................................................... 27 2.4.3 Implications of Climate Change for Skiing Demand........................................................... 34 2.5 Conclusion..................................................................................................................................39 Chapter 3: Research Methods........................................................................................... 40 3.1 Data Collection .........................................................................................................................40 3.1.1 Study Area............................................................................................................................................ 40 3.1.2 Survey Design ..................................................................................................................................... 42 3.1.3 Pre‐Testing .......................................................................................................................................... 44 3.1.4 Survey Implementation.................................................................................................................. 44 3.2 Data Analyses............................................................................................................................45 3.3 Research Challenges and Limitations...............................................................................47 4.0 Results............................................................................................................................... 50 4.1 Skier/Snowboarder Demographics ..................................................................................50 4.2 Trip Characteristics ................................................................................................................51 4.3 Skier/Snowboarder Motivations........................................................................................54 4.4 Factors Influencing Destination Choice ...........................................................................58 4.5 Weather Preferences..............................................................................................................59 4.6 Factors Affecting Participation Levels..............................................................................61 4.6.1 The ‘Backyard Snow Effect’ .......................................................................................................... 63 4.6.2 Climate Scenarios.............................................................................................................................. 63 4.6.3 Influence of Climate on Use of Recreational Properties................................................... 70 4.6.4 Activity Involvement and its Impact on Participation ...................................................... 71 vi 4.6.5 Destination Loyalty and its Impact on Resort Substitution............................................ 75