FUTURES ANALYSIS FOR THE NORTH EAST, NORTH WEST, SOUTH EAST AND SOUTH WEST MARINE PLAN AREAS MMO1127: Futures analysis for the north east, north west, south east and south west marine plan areas June 2017 Report prepared by: ABPmer, ICF Project funded by: Marine Management Organisation Version Author Note 0.1 S F Walmsley First draft 0.2 S F Walmsley Amendments 1 S C Hull Approved © Marine Management Organisation 2017 You may use and re-use the information featured on this website (not including logos) free of charge in any format or medium, under the terms of the Open Government Licence. Visit www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government- licence/ to view the licence or write to: Information Policy Team The National Archives Kew London TW9 4DU Email: [email protected] Information about this publication and further copies are available from: Marine Management Organisation Lancaster House Hampshire Court Newcastle upon Tyne NE4 7YH Tel: 0300 123 1032 Email: [email protected] Website: www.gov.uk/mmo If referencing this document, please cite it as: MMO1127. Futures analysis for the north east, north west, south east and south west marine plan areas, June 2017 This works uses, with thanks, information from the Celtic Seas partnership project. Celtic Seas Partnership is an EC LIFE+ project delivered with the contribution of the LIFE financial instrument of the European Community. Project number: LIFE011 ENV/UK/000392. Executive Summary Purpose and scope of study ABPmer, supported by ICF, was commissioned by the Marine Management Organisation (MMO) to conduct a review of past trends and current drivers and develop future projections for selected industry sectors that are active in the north east, north west, south east and south west marine plan areas. The MMO is responsible for the development of marine plans in English waters in accordance with the provisions of the Marine & Coastal Access Act (MCAA) 2009. The objective is to contribute to the achievement of sustainable development in the marine area by enabling strategic management of marine activities, achieving integration of different objectives, managing conflicts and complementarities and taking account of how ecosystems function. This will contribute towards the UK vision of clean, healthy, safe, productive and biologically-diverse oceans and seas. Marine plans are being prepared on a regional basis. The first two marine plans — East Inshore and Offshore Marine Plans — were published in April 2014. The MMO launched a public consultation on the draft South Marine Plan in November 2016. Work to develop marine plans for the north east, north west, south east and south west commenced in July 2016. This study is will inform iteration two of the marine planning process and feed into the development of draft marine plans and policies. The scope of the report covers the following sectors which align with Marine Policy Statement (MPS) activities: Aquaculture Carbon capture and storage (CCS) Defence Energy production: Nuclear Energy production: Offshore electricity networks Energy production: Oil and gas Energy production: Wave and tidal energy Energy production: Wind energy Fisheries Marine aggregates Ports, shipping, dredging and disposal Surface water / wastewater management Telecommunication cables Tourism and recreation. Methodology Relevant evidence was collected and collated to inform the analysis. This has involved reviewing existing published information and consulting relevant national and regional sector stakeholders. Information on the spatial distribution, intensity and economic value of each sector in the north east, north west, south east and south west marine plan areas over the last 10–20 years was summarised. A PESTLE (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal and Environmental) analysis was then undertaken to identify key changes that could affect the sectors in the future. The information on drivers and trends was used to develop projections of potential future change in the scale and location of each sector in each of the four marine plan regions over the next 6 and 20 years. These projections were constructed under three different scenarios to seek and identify possible alternative outcomes that could occur depending on the importance of particular drivers over time. Building on the work of the Celtic Seas Partnership Future Trends project (ABPMer, 2016), the three future scenarios considered were: Business As Usual (BAU) Nature At Work (N@W) Local Stewardship (LS). Business as Usual (BAU) – continuation of current policies This scenario reflects the anticipated evolution of sectors over the next 20 years, assuming that there will be no significant change in people’s attitudes and priorities and no major changes in technology or economics. As such, the scenario describes a continuation of recent trends and current drivers and expectations. Nature at Work (N@W) – maximising ecosystem services This is an environmentally-focused future scenario, in which there is an increasing understanding of the importance of ecosystem services, especially in the face of climate change. Society values nature for what it provides or does and accepts the need to create multifunctional landscapes to maintain ecosystem services and quality of life. Local Stewardship (LS) – local decision-making and differentiation Under this scenario, society is making a conscious effort to reduce the intensity of economic activity and levels of consumption and people want to manage resources for the future. There are fewer imports but also fewer exports and less consumption generally. Economic growth is slow but the economy is stable. Political power has been devolved and things are increasingly done at a regional or local level. Projected change across sectors Projections have been developed for each sector for the period 2017 to 2036 for each of the four marine plan regions for each scenario. These projections are presented as plots of the potential change in activity volume over time with activity volumes expressed in units relevant to that activity. For example, future demand for aggregates is expressed in tonnes of aggregate, future energy production in terms of megawatts (MW) of installed capacity etc. The plots are accompanied by maps that seek to indicate where projected increases in activity volume might occur. For some sectors, the resource requirements to support the activity are well defined and therefore the maps can be fairly precise in identifying where future activity is likely to occur, for example, areas for future marine aggregate extraction. For other sectors, the resource requirements may be less specific or clear and therefore there is less certainty where future activity might be accommodated, for example, offshore aquaculture. The plots and maps are supported by narrative that describes the possible changes in activity volume and location over the next 6 and 20 years. Consideration is also given to the potential trade-offs that might need to be made between sectors or between sectors and the natural environment within each region and within the different scenarios. All three scenarios project growth in the output and economic value of most sectors over the next 20 years. However, some sectors are expected to decline, for example oil and gas production is expected to decline in volume terms as resources become depleted. Combined projections for the north east, north west, south east and south west marine plan areas This sub-section summarises the sectoral projections for the north east, north west, south east and south west marine plan areas as a whole. The unweighted average percentage change in activity levels across the four marine plan areas between 2017 and 2036 for each sector under each of the three scenarios (BAU, N@W and LS) is shown in Figure 1. It has not been possible to estimate the percentage change in growth in the surface water management sector given the uncertainties regarding the future trends and qualitative nature of the predictions. It has also not been possible to present the sectoral projections in absolute terms because the information is not available to present activity levels for each sector in one common unit. The percentage changes in activity levels therefore only provide an indication of relative rates of change and do not provide information on the sector’s contribution to overall growth. Under BAU, the greatest average percentage growth between 2017 and 2036 is predicted to occur in the wave and tidal and aquaculture sectors, although from relatively low starting points. There is also predicted to be significant growth in offshore electricity network distribution cables . Sectors which will show moderate levels of growth in percentage terms under BAU are defence nuclear , wind energy , marine aggregates and the ports, shipping, dredging and disposal sectors. There is anticipated to be little growth in the tourism and recreation sector , although it will remain one of the most valuable sectors economically, and no growth (0%) in the CCS or telecommunications cables sectors under BAU. The fisheries sector is anticipated to see a marginal decline in growth over the 20 year period under BAU and the oil and gas sector will experience a significant decline as oil and gas reserves are depleted . Figure 1: Unweighted average percentage change across sectors between 2017 and 2036 under three scenarios For N@W, generally higher levels of growth are projected compared to BAU, particularly for