Evaluation of Comprehensive GHG Emissions Reduction Programs Outside of Washington – Final Report October 21, 2013 Prepared for: State of Washington Climate Legislative and Executive Workgroup (CLEW) Prepared by: i | P a g e Final Task 2 Report Table of Contents List of Tables .............................................................................................................................................. iv List of Figures ............................................................................................................................................ vii Acronyms .................................................................................................................................................. viii 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 1 2 Summary Findings ............................................................................................................................. 4 3 Policy Screening and Evaluation Process Overview ..................................................................... 11 4 Cap and Trade .................................................................................................................................. 15 4.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 16 4.2 Literature Review of Washington Potential ............................................................................... 18 4.2.1 WCI Economic Modeling Team Analysis ............................................................................ 19 4.2.2 ECONorthwest Analysis ....................................................................................................... 21 4.2.3 Beacon Hill Institute Analysis............................................................................................... 24 4.3 Quantification ............................................................................................................................ 26 4.3.1 Methodology ......................................................................................................................... 27 4.3.2 Assumptions, Exclusions, and Data Sources ........................................................................ 28 4.3.3 Results ................................................................................................................................... 30 4.4 Implementation History ............................................................................................................. 33 5 Carbon Tax ....................................................................................................................................... 41 5.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 43 5.2 Literature Review of Washington Potential ............................................................................... 45 5.3 Quantification ............................................................................................................................ 49 5.3.1 Methodology ......................................................................................................................... 49 5.3.2 Assumptions, Exclusions, and Data Sources ........................................................................ 51 5.3.3 Results ................................................................................................................................... 52 5.4 Implementation History ............................................................................................................. 55 6 Reducing Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) ...................................................................................... 59 6.1 Pricing Strategy to Reduce VMT – MBUF and PAYD .............................................................. 62 6.2 Investments in Public Transit Infrastructure ............................................................................. 66 6.3 Literature Review of Washington Potential ............................................................................... 70 i | P a g e Final Task 2 Report 7 Low Carbon Fuel Standard ............................................................................................................. 73 7.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 75 7.2 Literature Review of Washington Potential ............................................................................... 77 7.3 Quantification ............................................................................................................................ 83 7.3.1 Methodology ......................................................................................................................... 83 7.3.2 Assumptions, Exclusions, and Data Sources ........................................................................ 87 7.3.3 Results ................................................................................................................................... 88 7.4 Implementation History ............................................................................................................. 93 8 Zero Emissions Vehicle Goal ........................................................................................................... 96 8.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 97 8.2 Literature Review of Washington Potential ............................................................................... 99 8.3 Quantification .......................................................................................................................... 101 8.3.1 Methodology ....................................................................................................................... 102 8.3.2 Assumptions, Exclusions, and Data Sources ...................................................................... 104 8.3.3 Results ................................................................................................................................. 105 8.4 Implementation History ........................................................................................................... 107 9 Renewable Fuel Standard and Supporting Policies .................................................................... 110 9.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 111 9.2 Literature Review of Washington Potential ............................................................................. 112 9.3 Quantification .......................................................................................................................... 115 9.3.1 Methodology ....................................................................................................................... 115 9.3.2 Assumptions, Exclusions, and Data Sources ...................................................................... 117 9.3.3 Results ................................................................................................................................. 118 9.4 Implementation History ........................................................................................................... 118 9.4.1 Renewable Fuels Standards ................................................................................................. 118 9.4.2 AFV Purchase and Fueling Infrastructure Support Incentives ............................................ 121 10 Shore Power .................................................................................................................................... 123 10.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 124 10.2 Literature Review of Washington Potential ............................................................................. 125 11 Public Benefit Fund (PBF) ............................................................................................................ 129 11.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 130 11.2 Literature Review of Washington Potential ............................................................................. 132 11.2.1 Clean Energy Business and Economic Development ..................................................... 133 ii | P a g e Final Task 2 Report 11.2.2 Energy Efficiency and Renewable Development Support for Natural Gas Utilities and Electric Utilities Not Covered by I-937 ........................................................................................... 134 11.2.3 Climate Change-Driven Energy Conservation through Consideration for the Cost of Carbon 135 11.3 Quantification .......................................................................................................................... 136 11.3.1 Methodology ................................................................................................................... 137 11.3.2 Assumptions, Exclusions, and Data Sources .................................................................