A blueprint for a climate-positive Tasmania A SUBMISSION TO THE REVIEW OF TASMANIA’S CLIMATE CHANGE ACT AND CLIMATE ACTION PLAN Prepared by the Tasmanian Policy Exchange at the University of Tasmania April 2021 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This submission has been prepared by the Tasmanian Policy Exchange (TPE) at the University of Tasmania. The TPE has been established to enable the University of Tasmania to make timely and informed contributions to key policy debates occurring in Tasmania thus making a positive contribution to the future of our state and its people. This submission provides a blueprint for climate action to maximise the long-term benefits for the Tasmanian community. The TPE is grateful to the many researchers and staff across the University who contributed their time and expertise to the preparation of this submission. CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS Kim Beasy – Lecturer in Curriculum and Pedagogy, Fay Johnston – Associate Professor, Public Health and College of Arts Law and Education, www.utas.edu.au/ Primary Care Theme, Menzies Institute for Medical profiles/staff/education/kim-beasy Research, www.utas.edu.au/profiles/staff/menzies/fay- johnston Nathan Bindoff – Professor of Physical Oceanography, IMAS, www.utas.edu.au/profiles/staff/imas/nathan-bindoff Phillipa McCormack – Lecturer in Administrative Law and Legal Research Methods, College of Arts, Law and David Bowman – Professor of Pyrogeography and Fire Education, www.utas.edu.au/profiles/staff/law/phillipa- Science, College of Science and Engineering, www.utas. mccormack edu.au/profiles/staff/biological-sciences/David-Bowman Jan McDonald – Professor of Environmental Law, College Sharon Campbell – PhD candidate in climate change of Arts, Law and Education, www.utas.edu.au/profiles/staff/ and health, Menzies Institute for Medical Research, law/jan-mcdonald https://menzies.utas.edu.au/about-us/our-people/person- details?id=1397 Gabi Mocatta – Research Fellow in Climate Change Communication (Climate Futures), College of Science and Richard Eccleston - Professor of Political Science and Engineering, www.utas.edu.au/profiles/staff/media/gabi- Director, Tasmanian Policy Exchange, www.utas.edu.au/ mocatta profiles/staff/social-sciences/richard-eccleston Caroline Mohammed – Professor of Agriculture and Kathy Evans – Associate Professor and Associate Head, Centre Leader (Agricultural Systems), Tasmanian Institute Research, Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture, www.utas. of Agriculture, www.utas.edu.au/profiles/staff/tia/Caroline- edu.au/profiles/staff/tia/kathy-evans Mohammed Evan Franklin - Associate Professor in Energy and Power Ben Parr - Climate Policy Analyst, Tasmanian Policy Systems, College of Sciences and Engineering, www.utas. Exchange edu.au/profiles/staff/engineering/evan-franklin Gretta Pecl – Professor of Marine Ecology and Director, Rebecca Harris – Senior Lecturer of Physical Geography Centre for Marine Socioecology and ARC Future Fellow, (Climatology), College of Science and Engineering, www. IMAS, www.utas.edu.au/profiles/staff/imas/Gretta-Pecl utas.edu.au/profiles/staff/ace-crc/rebecca-harris Corey Peterson - Associate Director Sustainability, Matthew Harrison - Associate Professor and Systems Infrastructure Services and Development Modelling Team Leader, Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture, www.utas.edu.au/profiles/staff/tia/matthew- Carmen Primo Perez – Adjunct Lecturer and Sustainability harrison Officer, www.utas.edu.au/profiles/staff/imas/carmen-primo Neil Holbrook – Professor of ocean and Climate Dynamics Tomas Remenyi – Research Delivery and Data Manager, and Head, Centre for Oceans and Cryosphere, College of IMAS, www.utas.edu.au/profiles/staff/imas/tomas-remenyi Science and Engineering, www.utas.edu.au/profiles/staff/ Nick Towle – Lecturer and Clinical Medical Education imas/neil-holbrook Advisor, College of Health and Medicine, www.utas.edu.au/ Sarah Hyslop - Project Manager, Tasmanian Policy profiles/staff/health/Nick-Towle Exchange Rob White - Distinguished Professor, College of Art, Law Lachlan Johnson – Policy Analyst, Tasmanian Policy and Education, www.utas.edu.au/profiles/staff/tiles/rob- Exchange white BLUEPRINT FOR A CLIMATE-POSITIVE TASMANIA - APRIL 2021 3 Executive Summary Climate Change is the greatest contemporary challenge facing humanity and demands a concerted and comprehensive response encompassing individual, community, business and government action. As the global economy recovers from the COVID-19 crisis • The development and implementation of detailed there have been unprecedented commitments to more adaptation plans to reduce the impacts of ambitious emissions reduction targets and investment unavoidable climate change on the Tasmanian in low-carbon technology and infrastructure to support community and environment. economic growth and help address the worsening climate crisis. As of April 2021, more than 110 countries, • The promotion of innovation and investment in low accounting for more than 85 percent of global economic and zero-carbon technology, products and practices output, have made net-zero pledges. to underpin future economic growth and to further reduce emissions in Tasmania and beyond. Much of the attention focuses on international agreements and national emissions targets but there Despite the clear costs and risks of global warming, being is also growing recognition that state and regional a leader on climate action also provides opportunities governments have a critical role to play in promoting given the accelerating global transition to low-carbon climate action. Indeed, some of the most significant technologies and processes. Tasmania has the potential initiatives aimed at reducing emissions and preparing to capitalise on its climate-positive status to attract for the impacts of climate change have been at the investment, industries and people seeking to contribute subnational level. to a more sustainable low-carbon world. The current review of Tasmania Climate Change Act This submission has been informed by the research and the associated Climate Action Plan is timely given and analysis of experts from a range of academic this critical juncture in global climate action provides disciplines across the University of Tasmania who share a Tasmania with an important opportunity to consolidate commitment to practical, evidence-based climate action and capitalise on its world-leading carbon emissions in the long-term interests of all Tasmanians. profile and renewable electricity assets. The aims of the submission However, Tasmania cannot be complacent. This Reflecting the guidance provided in the Tasmanian submission argues that Tasmania’s climate action Government’s opportunities paper on Developing a strategy must include more ambitious sectoral emissions Climate Change Action Plan for Tasmania and the reduction targets and comprehensive, sector-specific discussion paper prepared for the Independent Review of climate adaptation strategies to build our reputation as the Climate Change Act, this submission has two broad a resilient, competitive and prosperous climate-positive aims: economy. • To present the most recent scientific evidence on the A commitment to a ‘climate positive’ Tasmania will not likely climate challenge facing Tasmania. only ensure that Tasmanians are making an important contribution to addressing climate change but a more • Inform the development of the next Tasmanian systematic focus on adaptation will also help reduce the Climate Change Act and the associated Climate impacts of unavoidable climate change on the Tasmania’s Action Plan to ensure that Tasmania attains climate- and communities and environment. positive status and can continue to credibly claim to be an international leader on climate action. Specifically, a ‘climate-positive’ approach to climate action involves: More specifically, and reflecting a climate-positive strategy described above, the submission argues that • A commitment to maintain the net negative Tasmania should adopt legislated sectoral emissions emissions profile Tasmania first achieved in 2016 over targets to deliver a 50% reduction in gross emissions by the medium to long term to ensure that Tasmania 2030, from 2005 levels, for the transport, energy, industry, is making a sustainable, long-term contribution to agriculture, and waste sectors. reducing atmospheric CO2. 4 BLUEPRINT FOR A CLIMATE-POSITIVE TASMANIA - APRIL 2021 Tasmania’s sectoral emissions and 2030 targets (kt CO2-e) (data source: State and Territory Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2020. Detailed analysis is provided in Part 2) 2018 % reduction Sector* 2005 emissions 2030 target emissions on 2018 Energy 1960 2245 980 56% Transport 1852 1587 926 42% Industrial 1531 1719 766 55% processes Agriculture 2281 2294 1141 50% Waste 405 354 203 43% These targets are consistent with international best resilience and reduce climate impacts in Tasmania practice and would drive innovation and emissions are presented in part 4 and the submission concludes reduction across the entire Tasmanian economy while with a summary of recommendations which should be reducing dependence on land use credits, thereby considered during the development and implementation maintaining a climate-positive emissions profile over of Tasmania’s next Climate Change Act and Action Plan. time. The analysis of specific targets is presented in Part 2 of the submission and evidence-based strategies for Climate action is challenging and requires a committed, reducing sectoral emissions are described in Part 3. collective response that promotes individual,