Cambridgeshire & Peterborough Joint Strategic Needs Assessment Core dataset, 2019 Version: July2019 Page 1 of 205 CONTENTS CONTENTS ......................................................................................................................................................... 2 Using this document .................................................................................................................................. 5 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................... 6 1.1 Health Profile summary for Peterborough, Cambridgeshire and the districts ............................... 21 2. GEOGRAPHY AND DEMOGRAPHY ........................................................................................................... 25 2.1 Cambridgeshire and Peterborough – geography and main administrative boundaries ................. 25 2.2 Demography, housing growth and land use.................................................................................... 25 Population estimates ............................................................................................................................... 26 Population data for NHS Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Clinical Commissioning Group (CCG) ...... 31 Population forecasts: background to short, medium and long term forecasts to 2036 ......................... 33 Population forecasts: CCC Research Group and ONS long term forecasts to 2036 ................................ 35 Population forecasts: CCC Research Group and ONS short and medium term forecasts to 2026 ......... 40 Population forecasts: CCC Research Group and ONS by age group - short and medium term forecasts to 2026 ..................................................................................................................................................... 42 Population change and house building ................................................................................................... 46 Population density ................................................................................................................................... 48 Fertility, components of population change, national insurance number registrations and ethnicity .. 49 2.3 Other Populations............................................................................................................................ 55 Armed Forces Population ........................................................................................................................ 55 Prison Population .................................................................................................................................... 57 Homeless Population ............................................................................................................................... 58 3. RELATIVE DEPRIVATION AND WIDER DETERMINANTS OF HEALTH ........................................................ 62 3.1 Relative deprivation......................................................................................................................... 62 3.2 Socio-economic factors and wider determinants influencing health and wellbeing ...................... 71 Child poverty ........................................................................................................................................... 71 Child development and educational attainment .................................................................................... 73 Employment, worklessness, income and benefits .................................................................................. 77 4. LIFESTYLES, RISK FACTORS AND HEALTH AND WELLBEING ..................................................................... 86 4.1 Excess weight ................................................................................................................................... 86 Children ................................................................................................................................................... 86 Adults ....................................................................................................................................................... 87 4.2 Physical activity................................................................................................................................ 90 Children ................................................................................................................................................... 90 Adults ....................................................................................................................................................... 91 4.3 Smoking ........................................................................................................................................... 93 Smoking prevalence in children............................................................................................................... 93 Smoking prevalence in adults .................................................................................................................. 94 Page 2 of 205 Smoking cessation ................................................................................................................................... 95 4.4 Alcohol use ...................................................................................................................................... 96 Children ................................................................................................................................................... 96 Adults ....................................................................................................................................................... 96 4.5 Drug use ........................................................................................................................................... 99 Children ................................................................................................................................................... 99 Adults ..................................................................................................................................................... 100 4.6 Sexual health ................................................................................................................................. 102 4.7 Under 18 conceptions and births .................................................................................................. 105 4.8 Falls and hip fracture ..................................................................................................................... 106 5. SCREENING, VACCINATION AND IMMUNISATION ................................................................................ 109 5.1 Children ......................................................................................................................................... 109 5.2 Adult screening .............................................................................................................................. 110 5.3 Influenza ........................................................................................................................................ 111 6. LEVELS OF ILLNESS AND HEALTH AND SOCIAL CARE SERVICES ............................................................. 112 6.1 Cardiovascular conditions (coronary heart disease, high blood pressure and stroke) ................. 112 Prevalence and modelled estimates ..................................................................................................... 112 6.2 Respiratory conditions (asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) ............................. 117 Prevalence ............................................................................................................................................. 117 6.3 Long term and high dependency conditions (cancer and diabetes) ............................................. 120 Prevalence ............................................................................................................................................. 120 6.4 Mental health (psychoses, depression, dementia and learning disability) ................................... 123 Prevalence ............................................................................................................................................. 123 Self-harm ............................................................................................................................................... 128 Suicide and injury of undetermined intent ........................................................................................... 129 Estimated behavioural and mental health related prevalence for selected disorders - Children and Young People ......................................................................................................................................... 130 6.5 NHS hospital services ..................................................................................................................... 135 Inpatient hospital admissions ................................................................................................................ 135 Accident and emergency attendances .................................................................................................. 147 6.6 Social care services .......................................................................................................................