A Conceptual Framework to improve the design of sustainable off-grid microgrid systems for remote communities in developing countries By: ABHI CHATTERJEE A thesis Submitted to Victoria University of Wellington in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Engineering. Victoria University of Wellington 2019 This thesis is dedicated to “Maa – Baba.” & “Our planet Earth” for a Sustainable Future Abstract From job creation to economic development, from security concerns to the full empowerment of women, energy lies at the heart of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) - agreed to by the world’s leaders in September 2015 as part of the 2030 Agenda. In the words of former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, “Energy is the golden thread that connects economic growth, increased social equity, and an environment that allows the world to thrive." Approximately 1 billion people in the world today have no access to electricity, and the issues are dominating in the remote communities of the developing countries. Decentralized systems have existed over a couple of decades to provide electricity provisions in the off-grid communities devoid of the necessary energy services. The literature, however, suggests that off-grid systems have failed in delivering the tasks set forth to curb the electricity crisis. The crisis has resulted in communities primarily residing in the remote/islanded areas having lower social and economic status compared to the urban areas with centralized grid connectivity. A further review of the literature points to a lack of a detailed standard framework for cross-sectional evaluation of sustainability and reliability of the off-grid systems, which results in non-uniformity of the universal electricity access. Given this, the main objective of the thesis is to establish a conceptual framework to improve the design of remote off-grid microgrid systems through a Techno-Economic Assessment (TEA) approach, by implementing a mixed-research approach. The research strategy adopted to advance knowledge and for achieving the objective of the research follows the Technology and Policy Assessment (TPA) approach, developed by the UK Energy Research Centre (UKREC). The research evaluation design involves formative evaluations where questionnaires designed for investigating failure cases of remote microgrids are introduced, and a conceptual framework is developed, based on the lessons learned. The conceptual framework comprising of modules incorporates essential features of improving the TEA of the remote microgrids and emphasizes on features like stakeholder assessments, sustainability aspects, energy management, and improving energy efficiency as well as overall system autonomy of the rural off-grid systems. Furthermore, following the TPA approach, the conceptual framework has been verified by involving a focus group. IEEE- Sustainable Energy Systems for Developing Communities (SESDC) was involved in the research verification process. The proposed conceptual framework was validated by incorporating a quantitative analysis to situate the research findings. The research findings in the thesis contribute extensively to the body of knowledge by establishing a standard framework indicating the importance of energy-efficient approaches towards scaling up sustainable remote microgrids for solving energy crisis issues. As it were, the practical contribution of the thesis is critical in identifying and characterizing the dimensions of the Sustainable Developing Goal 7 for “affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all” and its impact on the other SDGs, thereby enabling progress towards the target 2030 of the United Nations. List of Publications 1. Chatterjee, D. Burmester, A. Brent, and R. Rayudu, “Research Insights and Knowledge Headways for Developing Remote, Off- Grid Microgrids in Developing Countries,” Energies, vol. 12, no. 10, p. 2008, May 2019. 2. A. Chatterjee, A. Brent, R. Rayudu, and P. Verma, “Microgrids for rural schools: An energy-education accord to curb societal challenges for sustainable rural developments,” Int. J. Renew. Energy Dev., vol. 8, no. 3, p. 231, Oct. 2019. 3. A. Chatterjee and R. Rayudu, “Techno-economic analysis of hybrid renewable energy system for rural electrification in India,” in 2017 IEEE Innovative Smart Grid Technologies - Asia: Smart Grid for Smart Community, ISGT-Asia 2017, 2018. 4. A. Chatterjee, A. Brent, and R. Rayudu, “Distributed Generation for Electrification of Rural Primary School and Health Centre: An Indian Perspective,” in International Conference on Innovative Smart Grid Technologies, ISGT Asia 2018, 2018. 5. A. Chatterjee, D. Burmester, A. Brent, and R. Rayudu, “Defining a remote village typology to improve the technical standard for off-grid electrification system design,” in 2018 Australasian Universities Power Engineering Conference (AUPEC), 2018, pp. 1–5. Acknowledgement “Arise, awake, and stop not till the goal is reached”- Swami Vivekananda A statement that always encouraged me to desire for the best and to be hopeful when in doubts, during “my journey of Ph.D.” For the journey of my Ph.D., special gratitude goes out to my Ph.D. supervisors (Prof Alan Brent, Associate Prof Ramesh Rayudu and Dr. Daniel Burmester) “who kept a sense of humour when I had lost mine,” and for their selfless time and care that kept me going. I thank colleagues from my research group (SPRES and Sustainable Energy Systems), officemates of AM 409, the wider ECS community at VUW, and the Victoria Doctoral Scholarship for their support that enabled me to pursue my research and complete this thesis. I am grateful to all my teachers for being an essential part of my entire academic journey. I specially mention the IEEE Working Group on Sustainable Energy Systems for Developing Community (WGSESDC) for all the insightful discussions during my research. I am also grateful to my friends (in NZ and back home in India) and my family for their constant encouragement and support. Last but not least, I wish to thank my parents, who were the pillars of my success, and without whom my journey of Ph.D. would never have happened. Thank you for believing in me, for all your prayers and for being patient with me when I was annoying. Thank you all for all the encouragement and support! . Contents Chapter 1 Introduction ........................................................................... 1 1.1 Research Rationale............................................................................................... 3 1.2 Research Objective ............................................................................................. 14 1.3 Research Strategy............................................................................................... 16 Chapter 2 Analysis of Previous Research ......................................... 19 2.1 Research Methodology ...................................................................................... 20 2.2 Evaluation of microgrids in rural communities .............................................. 22 2.3 Research analysis based on the CAARLS attributes........................................ 31 2.4 Evaluation of Existing Frameworks ................................................................. 39 2.5 Chapter Summary and Knowledge Headways ............................................... 50 Chapter 3 Development of the Conceptual Framework .................. 54 3.1 Defining “Conceptual Framework” ................................................................. 55 3.2 Strategy for Constructing the Conceptual Framework ................................... 55 3.3 Conceptual Framework for the design of sustainable microgrids ................. 58 Module 1: Project Preparatory Analysis ................................................... 62 Module 2: Project Baseline Analysis ......................................................... 72 Module 2a: Retrospective Cohort Analysis (RCA)................................... 81 Module 3: Prospective Analysis ................................................................ 82 Module 4: Implementation and Monitoring Analysis ............................. 92 3.4 Chapter Summary ............................................................................................. 93 Chapter 4 Verification of the Conceptual Framework ..................... 95 4.1 Selection of the Focus Group ............................................................................ 96 4.2 Phases of the Verification Process .................................................................... 99 Verification Phase I: ................................................................................. 102 Verification Phase II: ................................................................................ 106 Verification Phase III: ............................................................................... 109 Verification Phase IV: ............................................................................... 112 4.3 Chapter Summary ........................................................................................... 115 Chapter 5 Quantitative Validation ................................................... 117 5.1 Location Description and Resource Assessment ........................................... 119 5.2 Load Classification for the Remote Community Electrification ................... 122 5.3 Parametric Selections for System Modelling ................................................. 123 5.4 Scenario 1: TEA Based