Southern California Earthquake Center 2008 Annual Meeting S C E C an NSF+USGS center Proceedings and Abstracts, Volume XVIII September 6-11, 2008 SCEC ORGANIZATION SCEC ADVISORY COUNCIL Center Director, Tom Jordan Mary Lou Zoback, Chair, Risk Management Solutions Deputy Director, Greg Beroza Gail Atkinson, Carlton University AssocIate Director for Administration, John McRaney Lloyd Cluff, Pacific Gas and Electric Associate Director for Communication, Education, John Filson, Scientist Emeritus, U.S. Geological Survey and Outreach, Mark Benthien Jeffery Freymueller, University of Alaska Associate Director for Information Technology, Phil Maechling Patti Guatteri, Swiss Reinsurance Project Planning Coordinator, Tran Huynh Anne Meltzer, Lehigh University Research Contracts and Grants Coordinator, Denis Mileti, California Seismic Safety Commission Karen Young Kate Miller, University of Texas at El Paso Project Specialist, Shelly Werner Jack Moehle, Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Education Programs Manager, Bob de Groot Center Digital Products Manager, John Marquis John Rudnicki, Northwestern University Research Programmers, Maria Liukis, David Meyers, Scott Callaghan, Kevin Milner Systems Programmer, John Yu SCEC PLANNING COMMITTEE Chair, Greg Beroza Seismology, Egill Hauksson, Jamie Steidl SCEC BOARD OF DIRECTORS Tectonic Geodesy, Jessica Murray, Rowena Lohman Earthquake Geology, Mike Oskin, James Dolan Tom Jordan, Chair, USC Unified Structural Representation, John Shaw, Jeroen Lisa Grant-Ludwig, Vice-Chair, UCI Tromp Peter Bird, UCLA Fault and Rupture Mechanics, Judith Chester, Ruth David Bowman, CSUF Harris Emily Brodsky, UCSC Crustal Deformation Modeling, Liz Hearn, Tom Parsons Jim Brune, UNR Lithospheric Architecture and Dynamics, Paul Davis, Ralph Archuleta, UCSB Gene Humphreys Steve Day, SDSU Earthquake Forecasting and Predictability, Terry Tullis, Bernard Minster James Dieterich, UCR Ground Motion Prediction, Robert Graves, Steve Day Bill Ellsworth, USGS Menlo Seismic Hazard and Risk Analysis, Paul Somerville, Yuri Fialko, UCSD Nicolas Luco Tom Herring, MIT Southern San Andreas Fault Evaluation, Ken Hudnut Susan Hough, USGS Pasadena Working Group on California Earthquake Nadia Lapusta, CalTech Probabilities, Ned Field Jim Rice, Harvard Collaboratory for the tudy of Earthquake Predictability, Tom Jordan, Danijel Schorlemmer Paul Segall, Stanford Extreme Ground Motion, Tom Hanks Bruce Shaw, Columbia Petascale Cyberfacility for Physics-Based Seismic Rob Wesson, USGS Golden Hazard Analysis, Phil Maechling ii | Southern California Earthquake Center Table of Contents SCEC ANNUAL MEETING PROGRAM ................................................................................................1 Meeting at a Glance ........................................................................................................................1 Workshop Descriptions and Agendas........................................................................................3 SCEC Annual Meeting Sessions.................................................................................................12 STATE OF SCEC, 2008........................................................................................................................15 REPORT OF THE ADVISORY COUNCIL...........................................................................................24 SCEC COMMUNICATION, EDUCATION, AND OUTREACH ...........................................................30 DRAFT 2009 SCIENCE PLAN .............................................................................................................41 I. Introduction ................................................................................................................................41 II. Guidelines for Proposal Submission....................................................................................41 III. SCEC Organization.................................................................................................................42 IV. Proposal Categories................................................................................................................43 V. Evaluation Process and Criteria............................................................................................44 VI. Coordination of Research Between SCEC and USGS-EHRP ........................................45 VII. SCEC3 Science Priority Objectives ....................................................................................46 VII-A. Disciplinary Activities .....................................................................................................48 1. Seismology........................................................................................................................48 2. Tectonic Geodesy ............................................................................................................49 3. Earthquake Geology.......................................................................................................50 VII-B. Interdisciplinary Focus Areas.........................................................................................51 1. Unified Structural Representation (USR)...................................................................51 2. Fault and Rupture Mechanics (FARM) ......................................................................52 3. Crustal Deformation Modeling (CDM)......................................................................52 4. Lithospheric Architecture and Dynamics (LAD) .....................................................53 5. Earthquake Forecasting and Predictability (EFP) ....................................................54 6. Ground Motion Prediction (GMP) ..............................................................................54 7. Seismic Hazard and Risk Analysis (SHRA) ..............................................................55 VIII. Special Projects and Initiatives..........................................................................................56 IX. SCEC Communication, Education, and Outreach...........................................................60 Appendix: SCEC3 Long-Term Research Goals.......................................................................61 Basic Research Problems....................................................................................................61 1. Earthquake Source Physics ...........................................................................................62 2. Fault System Dynamics .................................................................................................62 3. Earthquake Forecasting and Predictability ...............................................................63 4. Ground Motion Prediction............................................................................................64 SCEC ANNUAL MEETING ABSTRACTS ..........................................................................................65 Plenary Presentations...................................................................................................................65 Group 1. Poster Abstracts............................................................................................................69 Communication, Education, and Outreach (CEO) ......................................................69 Community Modeling Environment (CME); ................................................................77 Petascale Cyberfacility for Physics-Based Seismic Hazard Analysis (PetaSHA) ..77 Seismic Hazard and Risk Analysis (SHRA) ..................................................................81 ShakeOut...............................................................................................................................90 Ground Motion Prediction (GMP) ..................................................................................95 2008 SCEC Annual Meeting | iii Table of Contents Extreme Ground Motion (ExGM)..................................................................................103 Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) .........................109 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP).......................113 Earthquake Forecasting and Predictability (EFP) ......................................................115 Crustal Deformation Modeling (CDM) ........................................................................122 Lithospheric Architecture and Dynamics (LAD) .......................................................133 Group 2. Poster Abstracts..........................................................................................................142 Unified Structural Representation (USR).....................................................................142 Tectonic Geodesy ..............................................................................................................147 Earthquake Geology .........................................................................................................154 Southern San Andreas Fault Evaluation (SoSAFE)....................................................161 Fault Rupture and Mechanics (FARM) ........................................................................171 Seismology..........................................................................................................................197 MEETING PARTICIPANTS ................................................................................................................214