March 2011 | Frontier Economics, Atkins, ITS 1 Appendix 7 – Railway Thriassio – Kiato in Greece 7.1 Introduction 7.1.1 Project overview This evaluation presents the results of the ex post cost-benefit analysis for the construction of a new double-track standard-gauge railway between Thriasio and Kiato in Greece. The line has replaced a former single track metric line passing through a number of urban areas, including Megara and Korinthos. The improvements (funded by 4 applications for cohesion funding) form part of longer term proposals to upgrade the Piraeus – Athens – Patra line. Three of the sub-projects related to the section of track running from Thriasio to Korinthos. An additional funding application was made for the section of track between Korinthos and Kiato. Details of each funding application are shown below in Table 1. Table 1. Details of Funding Applications Total C.F Date of Project Ref. Description (€’000s) (€’000s) Decision Thriasio – Korinthos Project name: Construction of new 94.09.65.010 Thriasio-Pedio-Elefsis-Corinth 120,000 60,000 23/07/99 (A) railway line (Phase A) Project name: Construction of 1994GR16 Thriasio-Elefsina-Corinth section 165,000 82,500 22/03/01 CPT110 (B) (Phase B) 2003GR16 New Railway Track Thriasio– 92,000 46,000 15/12/03 CPT001 (C) Elefsina–Korinthos (Phase C) Korinthos - Kiato 2000GR16CPT New Railway Korinthos-Kiato 99,800 49,900 29/12/00 003 (D) *The extension of the modern line from Kiato to Patra will not be assisted by the EU Cohesion Fund. Technical information supporting all applications is provided in a feasibility study (TRADEMCO on behalf of ERGOSE) dated 20th November 2000. This study provides a combined analysis of the forecast costs and benefits for improvements along the entire Thriasio-Patras railway, including a section not yet opened Appendix 7 – Railway Thriassio – Kiato in Greece 2 Frontier Economics, Atkins, ITS | March 2011 between Kiato and Patras. However, it does not include a sequential economic analysis for each section of the route. As such this ex post evaluation also considers the cumulative impacts of the four projects and attempts to qualify the differences caused by a shorter route being constructed compared to forecast. Location The 220km-long rail line linking Athens to Patra forms part of the European TEN-T network, which runs parallel to the Priority Motorway Axis 7 (Igoumenitsa/Patras-Athens–Sofia-Budapest). Athens is situated on Rail Priority Axis 22 (Athens-Sofia-Budapest-Vienna-Prague-Nuremburg/Dresden). Patras is on rail priority axis 29 (Ionian/Adriatic international corridor). An overview of the project is shown below in Figure 1. Figure 1. Project Location and Overview Source: Openstreetmap.org Description The new fully grade-separated 112km1 double-track railway replacement line follows a more direct alignment, bypassing a number of urban areas between 1 91km Thriasio-Korinthos + 21km Korinthos-Kiato Appendix 7 – Railway Thriassio – Kiato in Greece March 2011 | Frontier Economics, Atkins, ITS 3 Thraisio and Korinthos. The line is no longer disrupted by the presence of a large number of level crossings that characterised the old line, which has now been discontinued. The new alignment, following the main highway, has resulted in new stations being less centrally located than their predecessors. Figure 2 below shows the old and new track alignments passing through Megara, and highlights some of the above features. Figure 3 gives a visual comparison of the old and new tracks. Figure 2. Old and New Rail Alignment through Megara Source: Openstreetmap.org Appendix 7 – Railway Thriassio – Kiato in Greece 4 Frontier Economics, Atkins, ITS | March 2011 Figure 3. Old Metric Line (left) and New Standard Gauge double line (right) Source: Site Photographs The first three sub sections relate to the Thriasio-Korinthos section which opened in September 2005. In addition to the new station in Korinthos, four new stations became operational at this time, namely; Nea Peramor, Megara, Kinetta and Agioi Theodori. Three additional new stations were incorporated from July 2006 being; Ano Liosia, Aspropyrgos and Magoula. The line terminated in Athens until June 2007 when it was extended to Piraeus including the three intermediate stops at Lefka, Rentis and Rouf. The fourth sub-project relates to the section between Korinthos-Kiato, this became operational in July 2007. The new line, including more than 5km of tunnels, is a modern double-track standard gauge railway, and is compatible with the wider rail network in northern and central Greece. The top speed on the improved line is 160km/h. The old line consisted of outdated infrastructure with the general line speed of 90km/h falling to 25km/h in places. The initial assessment considered that the project would a vital intervention to prevent the decline of the railway, and to allow the line to be compatible with the remainder of the standard gauge rail network in central and northern Greece. 7.1.2 Context Socio-economic context Table 2 presents summary data showing Greece‟s economic position compared to the EU as a whole over the period 2000-2009. The GDP per capita of Greece is presently 88% of the EU average. Growth in GDP has been particularly strong over the previous decade growing by 37% in real terms compared to 16% for the EU as a whole between 2000 and 2010. Despite this substantial growth, it is worth considering this against a backdrop of more recent trends where year-on year-growth in GDP has declined from a peak of 4.5% in 2006 to -2.3% in 2009 and -4.6% in 2010 (Business Monitor International, Q3 2010). This economic Appendix 7 – Railway Thriassio – Kiato in Greece March 2011 | Frontier Economics, Atkins, ITS 5 decline is important in the process of ex post evaluation as it will result in lower than expected travel demand when compared to ex ante forecasts. The overall mode share of rail in Greece is generally low. Moreover, in recent years the mode share of rail and bus passenger travel in Greece has fallen considerably, against a background trend of increasing passenger travel as a whole and of increasing car ownership. The project appraisal noted that the poor state of the rail network in Greece was one of the main problems with the nation‟s transport sector. In particular, the different gauge in the Peloponnese compared to the rest of Greece necessitated interchanges. Large sections of the track had low-capacity lines and safety issues. In addition a large part of the network did not have modern electrical signalling, and there was a requirement for a large number of staff increasing operating costs. It was noted that the Hellenic Railways Organisation‟s (OSEs) total revenue only accounted for 51% of the total operating costs, and consequently the rail network was operating at a loss. Over the past decade there has been significant investment in the modernisation of both the rail and highway networks within Greece. However, recent data shows that the overall financial position of the railway has not improved. In 2008, OSE reported losses of €937m on revenues of €174m. During the same period the subsidiary operating trains on the network reported a turnover of €108m against costs of €312m2. From 2000 to 2009 the companies staffing costs increased by 50 percent even though personnel decreased by 30 percent. With regards to the financial status of the railway, OSE‟s 2009 annual report notes that a reorganisation of the Greek railways is proposed for 2010. This will attempt to address the profitability of the network through: a rationalisation of personnel necessary for the operation of the OSE network; a review of the OSE network to minimise the loss from parts of the network with low demand; and, managing the real objectives of investments both in terms of feasibility and in terms of economic profitability. 2 Source: Hellenic Railways Organisation S.A, Annual Financial Statements 2009 Appendix 7 – Railway Thriassio – Kiato in Greece March 2011 | Frontier Economics, Atkins, ITS 7 Table 2. Details of Funding Applications 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 GDP/capita (market prices, €) European Union (27 countries) 19100 19800 20500 20700 21700 22500 23700 25000 25100 23600 Greece 12600 13400 14300 15600 16700 p 17500 p 18800 p 20200 p 21000 p 20700 p Real GDP/capita growth (% p.a.) European Union (27 countries) 3.9 2 1.3 1.3 2.5 2 3.2 3 0.5 -4.2 Greece 4.5 4.2 3.4 5.9 4.4p 2.3p 4.5p 4.3p 1.3p -2.3p Model Split of Passenger Transport (%) Greece Rail 2.2e 1.9e 1.9e 1.6e 1.6e 1.7e 1.6e 1.6e 1.3e - Car 72.8e 74.3e 75.1e 76.4e 77.5e 78.3e 79.2e 79.9e 80.8e - Bus 25.1e 23.8e 23.0e 22.1e 20.9e 20.0e 19.2e 18.5e 17.9e - Rail (mpkm) 1,583 1,783 1,836 1,574 1,668 1,854 1,811 1,954 2,003 - Cars (per 1000 people) - - 331 348 368 388 409 429 - - Notes: e = estimate, p = preliminary, - = no data available Source: Eurostat http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home & The World Bank http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IS.RRS.PASG.KM (accessed 27nd September 2010) Appendix 7 – Railway Thriassio – Kiato in Greece March 2011 | Frontier Economics, Atkins, ITS 9 Strategic policy context The old line between Thriasio and Kiato had poor geometric features, an old infrastructure, different gauge from the rest of Greece, and a lack of modern telecommunications and signalling. The line also passed through a number of built up areas and contained a number of level crossings in these locations.