Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area Bushfire and Climate Change Research Project A research project to investigate the impact of climate change on bushfire risk to Tasmania’s wilderness areas and appropriate management and firefighting responses Dr Tony Press Final Report, December 2016 Press, AJ (Ed.) 2016 Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area Bushfire and Climate Change Research Project. Tasmanian Government, Hobart. © State of Tasmania 2016 Department of Premier and Cabinet Tasmanian Climate Change Office GPO Box 123, Hobart TAS 7001 Excerpts from this publication may be reproduced with appropriate acknowledgement, as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968. ISBN: 978 0 7246 5715 0 Date: December 2016 Contents CONTENTS List of Figures .................................................................................................................................. 7 List of Tables ................................................................................................................................... 7 Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................................ 8 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................ 9 1. INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................................... 27 1.1 History and role of fire in the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area (TWWHA) ... 27 1.1.1 History .......................................................................................................................... 27 1.1.2 Role of fire .................................................................................................................... 28 1.2 Tasmanian fires of January – March 2016 ........................................................................ 29 1.2.1 The scale of the fires in the TWWHA ........................................................................... 29 1.2.2 Early stages of response to TWWHA fires, January 2016 ............................................ 34 1.3 TWWHA Bushfire and Climate Change Research Project ................................................. 36 1.3.1 Research Project background....................................................................................... 36 1.3.2 Research Project Terms of Reference, objectives and outcomes ................................ 37 1.3.3 Related activities to the Research Project ................................................................... 37 1.4 Final Report purpose and structure .................................................................................. 38 1.4.1 Purpose ........................................................................................................................ 38 1.4.2 Structure ....................................................................................................................... 38 1.5 Research commissioned through the Research Project ................................................... 38 2. VALUES IN THE TWWHA ........................................................................................................... 40 2.1 Roles and responsibilities ................................................................................................. 40 2.2 The TWWHA and the World Heritage List criteria ............................................................ 41 2.3 Statement of Outstanding Universal Value (SOUV) .......................................................... 41 2.4 Fire and the TWWHA values ............................................................................................. 42 2.5 Overview of expected climate change impacts and consequences for bushfires in the TWWHA ........................................................................................................................................ 43 2.5.1 Future fire behaviour ................................................................................................... 43 2.5.2 Consequences of future fire regimes for natural values .............................................. 44 3. FIRE MANAGEMENT ARRANGEMENTS FOR THE TWWHA ....................................................... 48 3.1 Funding ............................................................................................................................. 48 3.2 Legislation and statutory plans ......................................................................................... 49 3.2.1 TWWHA Management Plan ......................................................................................... 49 Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area Bushfire and Climate Change Research Project Final Report 3 Contents 3.3 Fire policies and procedures of the Tasmania Parks and Wildlife Service ....................... 50 3.3.1 Tasmania Parks and Wildlife Service Fire Management Policy 2014 ........................... 50 3.3.2 Fire Planning Policy 2014 ............................................................................................. 50 3.3.3 Wildfire Response Procedures ..................................................................................... 52 3.3.4 Fire Duty Officer procedures ........................................................................................ 52 3.3.5 Other operational fire procedures ............................................................................... 52 3.3.6 Regional Strategic Fire Management Plans.................................................................. 52 3.3.7 Fire Action Plan ............................................................................................................ 53 3.3.8 Bushfire preparedness and response ........................................................................... 53 3.4 Evaluation of the effectiveness of fire management in the TWWHA............................... 54 3.5 Recommendations relating to fire management in the TWWHA .................................... 55 4. PREVENTION ............................................................................................................................. 56 4.1 Current operational practice ............................................................................................ 56 4.1.1 Prevention and mitigation strategies ........................................................................... 56 4.1.2 Bushfire Risk Assessment Model (BRAM): Risk mapping in the TWWHA .................... 57 4.1.3 Planned burning ........................................................................................................... 59 4.1.4 Campfire restrictions .................................................................................................... 60 4.2 Recent work and research ................................................................................................ 60 4.2.1 Planned burning ........................................................................................................... 60 4.2.2 Warra Long Term Ecological Research site .................................................................. 65 4.2.3 Modelling climate change impact on planned burning ............................................... 66 4.3 Areas for further work or research ................................................................................... 67 4.3.1 Aboriginal fire regimes ................................................................................................. 67 4.3.2 Bushfire risk modelling ................................................................................................. 67 4.3.3 Impacts from planned burning ..................................................................................... 68 4.3.4 Planned burning strategy for the TWWHA .................................................................. 71 4.3.5 Organic soil dryness field testing method .................................................................... 71 4.3.6 Managing fire-sensitive values in flammable landscapes ............................................ 72 4.3.7 Fire refugia prediction .................................................................................................. 72 4.3.8 Campfire and fuel stove risk ......................................................................................... 72 4.4 Recommendations relating to prevention of fire in the TWWHA .................................... 73 5. PREPAREDNESS ......................................................................................................................... 75 5.1 Current operational practice ............................................................................................ 75 Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area Bushfire and Climate Change Research Project Final Report 4 Contents 5.1.1 Capability ...................................................................................................................... 75 5.1.2 Fire Duty Officer ........................................................................................................... 75 5.1.3 Detection: flights, websites, public, fire towers ........................................................... 76 5.2 Recent work and research ................................................................................................ 77 5.2.1 Bushfire Operational Hazard Model (BOHM) .............................................................