Social and Economic Conditions in East Timor Jon Pedersen and Marie Arneberg Editors International Conflict Resolution Program School of International and Public Affairs Columbia University, New York, USA David L. Phillips Project Director Fafo Institute of Applied Social Science Oslo, Norway International Conflict Resolution Program The International Conflict Resolution Program (ICRP) is an interdisciplinary research program in conflict analysis, prevention and resolution at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA). Program components include research, education and fieldwork. Bridging theory and practice, field projects test conflict resolution theories in conflict settings to develop innovative methods of conflict resolution. The International Conflict Resolution Program draws upon the vast resources of Columbia University. Established in 1946, SIPA offers a Masters of International Affairs, and a Masters of Public Policy and Administration. ICRP benefits from the participation of the broad Columbia University community. Fafo Institute For Applied Social Science Fafo Institute for Applied Social Science is an independent non-profit research institute based in Oslo, Norway. The institute was established by the Norwegian Confederation of Trade Unions in 1982, but has since 1993 been an independent foundation. Fafo’s mission is to produce research of strategic significance for policy planning and for empowering actors in the processes of change and development. The Centre for International Studies is engaged in applied research in countries undergoing major structural changes and nation-building processes. The Centre performs quantitative studies on social and economic conditions of households; poverty and living conditions; population studies; studies of the labor market, work life and industrial development issues; research on conflict resolution. Technical assistance and institution-building are integral parts of the research efforts. Contents PREFACE .....................................................................................................................................................V SUMMARY................................................................................................................................................VII MAP OF EAST TIMOR............................................................................................................................ IX ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS.....................................................................................................X PART I: NARRATIVE ................................................................................................................................ 1 SECTION I: A NATURAL RESOURCE BASED ECONOMY ............................................................. 1 1. NATURAL RESOURCES AND RESOURCE MANAGEMENT ....................................................... 3 SUMMARY................................................................................................................................................... 3 1.1 NATURAL RESOURCES .......................................................................................................................... 3 1.2 RESOURCE DESTRUCTION AND POLLUTION ........................................................................................ 19 1.3 ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL RESOURCE POLICY ............................................................................. 20 2. PRODUCTION....................................................................................................................................... 23 SUMMARY................................................................................................................................................. 23 2.1 THE AGGREGATE PICTURE.................................................................................................................. 24 2.2 AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT UNDER INDONESIAN RULE................................................................ 26 2.3 RESOURCE BASE, AGRO-ECOLOGICAL ZONES.................................................................................... 28 2.4 LAND .................................................................................................................................................. 29 2.5 TECHNOLOGY AND INPUT IN PRODUCTION.......................................................................................... 32 2.6 PRODUCTS........................................................................................................................................... 33 2.7 AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS................................................................................................................... 35 2.8 NON-AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION.................................................................................................... 38 2.8.5 A POLICY FOR GROWTH................................................................................................................... 41 3. TRADE AND FINANCE ....................................................................................................................... 42 SUMMARY................................................................................................................................................. 42 3.1 IMPORTS.............................................................................................................................................. 42 3.2 EXPORTS ............................................................................................................................................. 42 3.3 INTERNAL DISTRIBUTION.................................................................................................................... 43 3.4 RICE DISTRIBUTION ............................................................................................................................ 43 3.5 FINANCE ............................................................................................................................................. 46 SECTION II: POPULATION AND HUMAN RESOURCES............................................................... 49 4. POPULATION ....................................................................................................................................... 51 SUMMARY................................................................................................................................................. 51 i 4.1 POPULATION SIZE AND HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT........................................................................... 52 4.2 GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION........................................................................................................... 53 4.3 MIGRATION......................................................................................................................................... 54 4.4 POPULATION STRUCTURE ................................................................................................................... 55 4.5 HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS ......................................................................................................... 56 4.6 FERTILITY ........................................................................................................................................... 56 4.7 MORTALITY ........................................................................................................................................ 61 4.8 POPULATION GROWTH AND PROJECTIONS .......................................................................................... 64 5. HEALTH AND NUTRITION ............................................................................................................... 68 SUMMARY................................................................................................................................................. 68 5.1 NUTRITION AND FOOD SECURITY ....................................................................................................... 69 5.2 PREVALENT INFECTIOUS DISEASES..................................................................................................... 70 5.3 PREVALENT NON-INFECTIOUS DISEASES ............................................................................................ 73 5.4 REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH..................................................................................................................... 74 5.5 INFANT AND CHILD HEALTH ............................................................................................................... 76 5.7 HEALTH CARE RESOURCES................................................................................................................. 79 6. EDUCATION AND HUMAN CAPITAL............................................................................................. 83 SUMMARY................................................................................................................................................. 83 6.1 BRIEF HISTORY................................................................................................................................... 84 6.2 DIAGNOSIS AND POTENTIAL OF EDUCATION SUPPLY.......................................................................... 85 6.3 HUMAN CAPITAL, EDUCATION AND THE LABOR MARKET.................................................................. 99 7. POVERTY ...........................................................................................................................................