JRC horizon scanning on dual-use civil and military research G. Bordin, M. Hristova and E. Luque-Perez 2020 EUR 30301 EN This publication is a Science for Policy report by the Joint Research Centre (JRC), the European Commission’s science and knowledge service. It aims to provide evidence-based scientific support to the European policymaking process. The scientific output expressed does not imply a policy position of the European Commission. Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use that might be made of this publication. For information on the methodology and quality underlying the data used in this publication for which the source is neither Eurostat nor other Commission services, users should contact the referenced source. The designations employed and the presentation of material on the maps do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Contact information Name: Guy Bordin, Mayya Hristova and Encarnación Luque-Perez Address: Rue du Champ de Mars 21, 1049 Brussels, Belgium Email: [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected] EU Science Hub https://ec.europa.eu/jrc JRC120638 EUR 30301 EN PDF ISBN 978-92-76-20775-7 ISSN 1831-9424 doi:10.2760/47988 Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2020 © European Union, 2020 The reuse policy of the European Commission is implemented by the Commission Decision 2011/833/EU of 12 December 2011 on the reuse of Commission documents (OJ L 330, 14.12.2011, p. 39). Except otherwise noted, the reuse of this document is authorised under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). This means that reuse is allowed provided appropriate credit is given and any changes are indicated. For any use or reproduction of photos or other material that is not owned by the EU, permission must be sought directly from the copyright holders. All content © European Union, 2020, except: Cover page, source: E. Luque-Perez. How to cite this report: Bordin, G., Hristova, M., Luque-Perez, E., JRC horizon scanning on dual-use civil and military research, EUR 30301 EN, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, 2020, ISBN 978-92-76-20775-7, doi:10.2760/47988, JRC120638. 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 3 2 Methodology ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 4 3 Results .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 6 3.1 The 14 common issues .............................................................................................................................................................................. 6 3.1.1 Issue: ‘Energy + climate research’ ...................................................................................................................................... 6 3.1.2 Issue: ‘Private companies in sensitive R&D’.................................................................................................................. 6 3.1.3 Issue: ‘CRISPR and genetic manipulations’ .................................................................................................................... 6 3.1.4 Issue: ‘Space technologies’ ...................................................................................................................................................... 7 3.1.5 Issue: ‘Artificial intelligence in decision support’........................................................................................................ 7 3.1.6 Issue: ‘Enhancing humans’ ....................................................................................................................................................... 8 3.1.7 Issue: ‘Brain imaging and stimulation’ (including brain–computer interfaces)....................................... 8 3.1.8 Issue: ‘Synthetic biology’ ........................................................................................................................................................... 9 3.1.9 Issue: ‘Data poisoning’ ................................................................................................................................................................ 9 3.1.10 Issue: ‘Liquid security’ ................................................................................................................................................................. 9 3.1.11 Issue: ‘New sensitive raw materials’.................................................................................................................................. 9 3.1.12 Issue ‘Dual-use in social sciences and art’ ................................................................................................................. 10 3.1.13 Issue: ‘Small/portable nuclear reactors’ ....................................................................................................................... 10 3.1.14 Issue: ‘Multifunctional materials’ ...................................................................................................................................... 10 3.2 Mapping of issues ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 11 4 Description of selected issues ........................................................................................................................................................................ 12 4.1 Multifunctional/advanced materials ............................................................................................................................................... 12 4.2 Data poisoning ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 13 4.3 Space technologies .................................................................................................................................................................................... 13 4.4 CRISPR and genetic manipulations .................................................................................................................................................. 14 4.5 Artificial intelligence in decision support ..................................................................................................................................... 15 4.6 Enhancing humans .................................................................................................................................................................................... 17 4.7 Synthetic biology......................................................................................................................................................................................... 18 5 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 20 References .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 21 Annex: List of items used for the horizon scanning exercise ............................................................................................................. 26 i Abstract This report presents the results of a horizon scanning exercise, carried out by the Joint Research Centre (JRC), aiming to identify ‘emerging’ issues displaying potential for dual-use research and further applications, namely the use of civilian research outcomes for defence purposes and vice versa. The exercise allowed 14 issues to be identified, 7 of which have been further commented on: 6 were perceived as having a very high level of relevance for dual-use applications in the short to medium term (between now and circa 10 years), and 1 was assessed as emerging in the longer term. Four issues out of these seven fall entirely or partially within the realm of biology: ‘Multifunctional materials’, ‘CRISPR and genetic manipulations’, ‘Enhancing humans’ and ‘Synthetic biology’. All together, these thematic issues, which are actually interrelated, show that the manipulation of the living, including that of human bodies, with all its aspects – positive and negative, bright and dark, defensive and offensive – is expected to increase in time and impact. Other issues identified belong, broadly speaking, to space, artificial intelligence and data poisoning. 1 Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank Maciej Krzysztofowicz from Unit I.2 ‘Foresight, Modelling,