TOMPKINS COUNTY PLANNING DEPARTMENT Solar Energy Generation Potential of Tompkins County Andrew Curthoys 5/15/2012 Table of Contents Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................................... 1 Overview of Solar Energy .............................................................................................................................. 3 Focus of This Report ...................................................................................................................................... 4 Solar Energy Trends ...................................................................................................................................... 4 United States ............................................................................................................................................. 4 Tompkins County ...................................................................................................................................... 5 Resource Assessment ................................................................................................................................... 6 Photovoltaic Basics ....................................................................................................................................... 8 PV Overview .............................................................................................................................................. 8 Inverters .................................................................................................................................................. 10 Current PV Materials ............................................................................................................................... 10 Future PV Materials ................................................................................................................................ 11 Module Efficiencies ................................................................................................................................. 12 Temperature Effects ............................................................................................................................... 13 Panel Degradation ................................................................................................................................... 14 PV Manufacturers ................................................................................................................................... 14 Solar Thermal Systems ................................................................................................................................ 20 Individual PV Systems ................................................................................................................................. 15 Location of Panels ................................................................................................................................... 15 Tilt Angle ................................................................................................................................................. 17 Shading .................................................................................................................................................... 18 Solar Easements ...................................................................................................................................... 20 Tompkins County Solar Performance ......................................................................................................... 20 Tompkins County PV Potential ................................................................................................................... 25 Commercial Potential.............................................................................................................................. 25 Industrial Potential .................................................................................................................................. 28 School Building Potential ........................................................................................................................ 30 Residential Potential ............................................................................................................................... 32 Number of Homes ............................................................................................................................... 32 Number of Homes with PV Potential .................................................................................................. 33 i PV Potential Calculations .................................................................................................................... 34 Urban Systems .................................................................................................................................... 34 Rural Systems ...................................................................................................................................... 34 Total Photovoltaic Potential ................................................................................................................... 35 Solar System Costs ...................................................................................................................................... 36 Module Prices ......................................................................................................................................... 36 Installed System Prices ............................................................................................................................ 37 Tompkins County System Prices ............................................................................................................. 38 Net Cost Breakdown ............................................................................................................................... 38 Net Metering ........................................................................................................................................... 39 PV Financial Programs and Incentives ........................................................................................................ 40 Traditional Financing Arrangements ....................................................................................................... 40 Alternative Financing Arrangements ...................................................................................................... 40 Third Party Ownership Models ........................................................................................................... 40 Property Tax Assessment Model ........................................................................................................ 41 Solar Renewable Energy Certificates .................................................................................................. 41 NYSERDA Renewable Portfolio Standard ................................................................................................ 41 NYSERDA Incentive ................................................................................................................................. 42 New York State Tax Credits ..................................................................................................................... 42 Federal Tax Credits .................................................................................................................................. 43 NYSERDA Clean Power Estimator ............................................................................................................... 43 Grid Parity of Solar PV ................................................................................................................................. 46 County Municipal Solar Installations .......................................................................................................... 47 Tompkins County Public Library .............................................................................................................. 47 Solar Liberty Lease Program ................................................................................................................... 49 Conclusions ................................................................................................................................................. 51 Appendix A: Image sources .......................................................................................................................... 1 Appendix B: Description of Variables Used by PVWatts ............................................................................... 1 DC Rating ................................................................................................................................................... 1 DC-to-AC Derate Factor ............................................................................................................................ 1 Appendix C: Aerial Views of the 10 Largest Commercial Buildings in the County ....................................... 1 Appendix D: Aerial Views of the 10 Largest Industrial Buildings in the County .......................................... 1 ii Appendix E: Aerial Views of the 10 Largest School Buildings in the County ................................................ 1 Appendix F: Solar Liberty System Specifications.........................................................................................