THE DEMOCRATIC BENEFITS OF CENTRALIZED INSTITUTIONS IN GHANA By JENNIFER C. BOYLAN A DISSERTATION PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA 2016 ⃝c 2016 Jennifer C. Boylan To Adventures. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS During my graduate school career, I received institutional, funding, academic and research support from a wide variety of organizations and individuals. First, I would like to thank the institutional support I received from the Department of Political Science and the Center for African Studies at the University of Florida (UF) for their formative roles in my graduate training, for inviting leading-edge scholars to present their research on campus, and for seeking out funding opportunities from which graduate students like myself have benefited. My doctoral education and research was funded by the David L. Boren Fellowship, UF Department of Political Science, UF Center for African Studies, UF Center for International Business Education & Research (CIBER), and the African Studies Center at Michigan State University. Through these opportunities I was able to complete over 16 months of research across 3 trips to Ghana. For my academic training, I would like to thank my dissertation advisor, Michael Bernhard, and my other committee members (Ben Smith, Staffan Lindberg, Brenda Chalfin and Badredine Arfi) for their encouraging, detailed, critical, and innovative remarks throughout the development and production of my dissertation project. I also need to thank my Akan-Twi teachers, particularly James Essegbey, Levi Ofoe, Patience Asare, Forster Asare Kena, and Emmanuel Kofi Amo Ofori, for over 4 years of language training. Many, many thanks to all those who assisted me in the completion of my research in Ghana. The following institutions were of particular help: Ghana Statistical Services, the Center for Democratic Development (Ghana-CDD), the Parliament of Ghana, the Electoral Commission (EC), the Ministry of Local Government and Rural Development (MLGRD), the M/M/DCE offices and staff in each of the six districts in which surveys were conducted, as well as the Members of Parliament, traditional leaders, assemblypersons, unit committee persons, and any other individuals who allowed me to interview them as part of this research. I would also like to thank the following individuals for their help in the completion of this project: my survey project manager JoJo Baiden, David Kombat, Patrick Adzovor, Juliana Ama Kplorfia, 4 Prof. E. Gyimah-Boadi, Franklin Oduro, James Adimah, George Kagya-Agyemang, Benedict Fiifi Appiah, Yaw Opoku, Edward Takyi, James Atikpo, Anthony Agboga, Godwin Keteku, Chester Fiagbe, George Atta Quainoo, and each of the other surveyor assistants. 5 TABLE OF CONTENTS page ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ................................... 4 LIST OF TABLES ...................................... 10 LIST OF FIGURES ..................................... 14 ABSTRACT ......................................... 17 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION ................................... 19 1.1 The Problem ................................... 20 1.2 The Proposed Solution: National and sub-National Competition ........ 21 1.3 Dominant Party Politics, Neopatrimonialism, and Ethnic Voting ........ 22 1.3.1 Elections and the Development of Dominant Party Politics ....... 22 1.3.2 Addressing Neopatrimonial Logics .................... 24 1.3.3 The Durability of Ethnic Voting ..................... 26 1.3.3.1 The rationality of voting ethnically .............. 27 1.3.3.2 But why is ethnic voting bad? ................. 29 1.4 How Effective National-Level Competition Develops in Divided Societies .... 30 1.4.1 Credible Oppositions ........................... 30 1.4.2 Majoritarian Electoral Systems ...................... 32 1.5 Taking the Effects of Institutionalized National and Sub-National Competition to Ghana ..................................... 33 1.5.1 Majoritarian Electoral Systems in Ghana ................. 33 1.5.2 Ghana's Centralized System of Local Government ............ 34 1.6 Competing Explanations ............................. 36 1.6.1 Democratization-via-Elections ...................... 36 1.6.2 Democratization-via-Economic Growth ................. 38 1.7 Outline of Chapters to Come .......................... 41 2 GHANA'S HISTORY OF CENTRALIZATION AND ETHNIC POLITICS ...... 45 2.1 The Argument .................................. 46 2.2 Pre-Colonial Ethnicity and Colonial Rule .................... 47 2.2.1 Ethnicity, Chiefs and Regional Identities ................. 47 2.2.2 The Educated Elite Response in the 1940's and 1950's ......... 49 2.3 Post-Colonial Centralization and the Ethnic Response ............. 51 2.3.1 CPP versus NLM in the Post-1951 Election Period ........... 51 2.3.2 The Post-Independence CPP Regime .................. 56 2.3.3 The NLC and the 1966 Coup ...................... 57 2.3.4 Busia and the Progress Party (PP) ................... 59 2.3.5 Acheampong, the NRC and SMC-I .................... 62 6 2.3.6 Akuffo and the SMC-II .......................... 64 2.3.7 Rawlings-I and Limann .......................... 66 2.3.8 Rawlings-II ................................ 69 2.4 Ethnic Voting in the Fourth Republic ...................... 72 2.5 Discussion .................................... 74 3 GHANA'S CENTRALIZED SYSTEM OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT & THE POWER OF THE DISTRICT CHIEF EXECUTIVE ....................... 76 3.1 An Overview of Ghana's System of Local Government ............. 77 3.2 District Assembly Authority & Revenue Sources ................ 82 3.2.1 District Assembly Authority ....................... 83 3.2.2 District Assembly Revenue ........................ 86 3.3 The Relationship Between MPs and DCEs ................... 89 3.4 Discussion .................................... 92 4 ECOLOGICAL INFERENCE .............................. 95 4.1 The Application of Ecological Inference Tools to Ghana ............ 97 4.2 Ethnic Voting in Ghana ............................. 101 4.3 The Model .................................... 103 4.4 Data ....................................... 106 4.5 Results ...................................... 109 4.5.1 Method of Bounds ............................ 109 4.5.2 Multinomial-Dirichlet Models ...................... 110 4.5.2.1 Core political party supporters ................. 110 4.5.2.2 Peripheral political party supporters .............. 111 4.5.2.3 Unincorporated groups with mixed voting patterns ...... 115 4.6 Presidential Kingmakers ............................. 116 4.7 Discussion .................................... 119 5 THE INSTITUTIONALIZATION OF LOCAL-LEVEL COMPETITION IN GHANA . 155 5.1 Hypotheses .................................... 157 5.2 Model Overview ................................. 160 5.2.1 Dependent Variable and Primary Independent Variable ......... 160 5.2.2 Controlling for Structural Conditions Impacting MP-DCE Relationships 161 5.2.3 Controlling for Structural Conditions Impacting Local Politics ..... 162 5.3 Results ...................................... 164 5.3.1 2000 Elections .............................. 165 5.3.2 2000 Presidential Runoff Elections .................... 166 5.3.3 2004 Elections .............................. 166 5.3.4 2008 Elections .............................. 167 5.3.5 2008 Presidential Runoff Elections .................... 168 5.3.6 2012 Elections .............................. 169 5.4 Alternative Explanations ............................. 170 5.5 Discussion .................................... 174 7 6 SURVEY ANALYSIS OF INDIVIDUALS' VOTES ................... 191 6.1 General Conclusions from Chapter 6 ....................... 193 6.2 The Survey .................................... 195 6.3 The District Pairs ................................ 197 6.3.1 NPP Strongholds: Bosome Freho & Birim South ............ 197 6.3.2 NDC Strongholds: Adaklu Anyigbe & Ketu South ........... 198 6.3.3 Mfantsiman & Asikuma Odoben Brakwa ................ 199 6.4 Qualitative Explanation of District-Level Politics ................ 199 6.4.1 Bosome Freho .............................. 199 6.4.2 Birim South ............................... 201 6.4.3 Adaklu Anyigbe .............................. 203 6.4.4 Ketu South ................................ 205 6.4.5 Mfantsiman ................................ 208 6.4.6 Asikuma Odoben Brakwa ........................ 210 6.5 Survey Analysis: Political Knowledge and Behavior ............... 212 6.5.1 Biggest Reasons for Your Vote and Votes in the Community ...... 213 6.5.1.1 Overall results ......................... 213 6.5.1.2 Within district pairs ...................... 215 6.5.1.3 District-by-district analysis ................... 216 6.5.2 Identifying NDC and NPP Ideologies ................... 217 6.5.2.1 The NDC ideology ....................... 218 6.5.2.2 The NPP ideology ....................... 219 6.5.2.3 Within district pairs ...................... 220 6.5.2.4 District-by-district analysis ................... 222 6.6 Discussion .................................... 224 7 PREDICTING RESPONDENTS' VOTES AND SWING-VOTING .......... 261 7.1 Predicting Votes ................................. 263 7.1.1 2004 Presidential and Parliamentary Elections .............. 265 7.1.2 2008 Presidential and Parliamentary Elections .............. 268 7.1.3 2012 Presidential and Parliamentary Elections .............. 271 7.2 Who Are The Swing Voters? .......................... 273 7.2.1 Demographic Trends ........................... 273 7.2.2 Logit Models