Cover Page The following handle holds various files of this Leiden University dissertation: http://hdl.handle.net/1887/69816 Author: Welch, J.P. Title: The Grotius Sanction: Deus Ex Machina. The legal, ethical, and strategic use of drones in transnational armed conflict and counterterrorism Issue Date: 2019-03-21 The Grotius Sanction: Deus Ex Machina. The legal, ethical, and strategic use of drones in transnational armed conflict and counterterrorism James Patrick Welch i ii The Grotius Sanction: Deus Ex Machina. The legal, ethical, and strategic use of drones in transnational armed conflict and counterterrorism. PROEFSCHRIFT ter verkrijging van de graad van Doctor aan de Universiteit Leiden, op gezag van Rector Magnificus prof. mr. C.J.J.M. Stolker, volgens besluit van het College voor Promoties te verdedigen op donderdag 21 maart 2019 klokke 13.45 uur door James Patrick Welch geboren te Dorchester Massachusetts (USA) in 1955 iii Promotor: Prof. dr. P.B. Cliteur Co-promotor: Dr. G. Molier Promotiecommissie: Prof. dr. A. Ellian Prof. dr. A.N. Guiora, (University of Utah, Salt Lake City, USA) Prof. dr. E.R. Muller Prof. dr. L.R. Blank, (Emory University, Atlanta, USA) Dr. B.R. Rijpkema iv Copyright information: The author hereby grants the Leiden Law School the right to display these contents for educational purposes The author assumes total responsibility for meeting the requirements set by United States Copyright Law for inclusion of any materials that are not the author’s creation or in the public domain. §Title 17 USC © Copyright 2018 by James Patrick Welch All rights reserved v Dedication “For he to-day that sheds his blood with me shall be my brother” --Shakespeare, Henry the V, 1598. To Liana, my best friend, my wife, for her infinite patience and support which kept me going through the good times and the bad. vi Table of Contents CHAPTER PAGE TITLE PAGE PROMOTOR AND PROMTION COMMITTEE ........................................................................ iv COPYRIGHT ..................................................................................................................................v DEDICATION .............................................................................................................................. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS .............................................................................................................. vii I. INTRODUCTION Introduction: Research Question and Purpose Statement ................................................................1 II. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK Theoretical Framework .................................................................................................................40 Methodological Analysis ...............................................................................................................40 Methodology applied in the Grotius Sanction ...............................................................................42 Theoretical Foundations.................................................................................................................50 Four Hypotheses ............................................................................................................................54 Approach to Research ....................................................................................................................58 The Challenges...............................................................................................................................61 Terrorism and The Clash of Consciousness...................................................................................64 Research Significance ....................................................................................................................66 III. FOR WHOM THE BELL TOLLS: COSTS AND CONSEQUENCES vii Targeting Imprecision ....................................................................................................................70 Boots on the Ground ......................................................................................................................78 The State’s Right to Self-defense ..................................................................................................80 Assassination, Treachery, and Perfidy? ........................................................................................82 Striking a Balance ..........................................................................................................................84 IV. LEGAL CONSIDERATIONS Rules, Regulations and Guidelines ..............................................................................................100 The Legal Framework ..................................................................................................................102 International Law .........................................................................................................................105 The Law of War and the Concept of Self-defense .......................................................................113 The UN Charter and the Use of Force .........................................................................................114 The Relationship between Article 51 and Article 2 (4) ...............................................................115 Armed Attack ...............................................................................................................................116 Article 2(4) versus Article 51: Between a Rock and a Hard Place ..............................................124 Self-defence against Non-state Actors.…… ................................................................................131 Preemption vs. Prevention ...........................................................................................................135 The ethical perspective: Walzer’s moral argument on Anticipatory Self-defense .....................144 V. TARGETED KILLING Targeted Killing ...........................................................................................................................153 The Legal, Moral, and Ethical Aspects of Targeted Killing ........................................................159 Target Discrimination ..................................................................................................................171 Personality and Signature Strikes ................................................................................................181 viii The CIA: Where It All Began: Where It Is Now .........................................................................189 Collateral “Damage” ....................................................................................................................197 VI. MILITARY AND STRATEGIC CONSIDERATIONS Nasty, Brutish and Short: A Return to Hobbes and Asymmetry .................................................216 How does the process behind the kill chain function? (outside the battlespace) .........................222 How does the process behind the kill chain function? (within the battlespace) .........................223 Find, Fix, Finish, Exploit, Analyze, and Disseminate (F3EAD) .................................................227 The Elephant and the Mouse: The advantages and disadvantages of asymmetry .......................230 VII. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Examination of the Four Hypotheses ...........................................................................................244 Specific Recommendations ..........................................................................................................251 Concluding Remarks ....................................................................................................................253 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................259 APPENDICES Appendix A: Glossary..................................................................................................................315 Appendix B: Theoretical Framework ..........................................................................................328 Appendix C: Legal Documentation ............................................................................................335 Appendix D: Treaties, Acts, and Conventions Against Terrorism ..............................................339 Appendix E: Google Earth Intelligence .......................................................................................342 Appendix F: Compsim Technology Comparison Chart ..............................................................346 Appendix G: Autonomy Matrix and Bandwidth Model ..............................................................347 ix Appendix H: CIA Drone Strikes and Minimum Civilian Casualties ...........................................348 Appendix I: Scale of Intent ..........................................................................................................349 Appendix J: Target Selection Process & The “Kill Chain” (AOR) .............................................350 Appendix K: Target Selection Process & The “Kill Chain” (Outside the AOR) ........................351 Appendix L: Image of Creech AFB Drone OPs ..........................................................................352 Appendix M: Ramstein Satellite Relay Station ...........................................................................353 Appendix N: Chabelly Drone Base Djibouti