TOWARDS FUTURE RESEARCH ON SPACE WEATHER. DRIVERS 2-7 July 2019, San Juan, Argentina http://www.iafe.uba.ar/freswed2019/ - Dynamic events determining space weather conditions - arge scale corona and solar wind models - !nterplanetary counterparts o" solar activity - #ools and simulations "or space weather "orecasting - Science with total solar eclipses - !nstrumentation with space weather applications Scienti$c %rgani&ing 'ommittee ocal %rgani&ing 'ommittee - Cristina Mandrini ('hair) - Carlos Francile (Chair) - Hebe Cremades (Chair) - Laura Balmaceda - Dipankar Banerjee - Jos+ Castr' - Peng Fei Chen - Germán Cristiani - Alisson Dal La$' - Fernando (ópe, - G*illermo Giménez de Castr' - Mar/elo López F*entes - Silvina Guidoni - Maria .*znetso-a - Natalia Nuñe, - Mar/elo López F*entes - Ri/ardo P'dest3 - Dalmiro Maia - Michael Marsh - Teresa Nie-es-Chinchilla - L*ciano Rodr1$*e, email: [email protected] FReSWeD 2019 Towards Future Research on Space Weather Drivers 2 { 7 July 2019, San Juan - Argentina Sponsors UNSJ { OAFA Universidad Nacional de San Juan { Observatorio Astr´onomicoF´elixAguilar UTN { FRM Universidad Tecnol´ogicaNacional Facultad Regional Mendoza IAFE Instituto de Astronom´ıay F´ısicadel Espacio ICATE Instituto de Ciencias Astron´omicasde la Tierra y del Espacio SeCiTI Secretar´ıade Ciencia, Tecnolog´ıae Innovaci´onde la provincia de San Juan SeCyT Secretar´ıade Ciencia y Tecnolog´ıae innovaci´onproductiva de la Naci´on SoHO Solar and Heliospheric Observatory SCOSTEP Scientific Committee on Solar-Terrestrial Physics CLAF Centro Latinoamericano de F´ısica COSPAR Committee on Space Research ICTP International Center for Theoretical Physics Sponsors AAA Asociaci´onArgentina de Astronom´ıa ANPCyT Agencia Nacional de Promoci´onCient´ıficay Tecnol´ogica ISWI International Space Weather Initiative NASA { CCMC National Aeronautics and Space Administration { Community Coordinated Modeling Center CONAE Comisi´onNacional de Actividades Espaciales CAsLeo Complejo Astron´omicoel Leoncito Organizing Committees Scientific Organizing Committee Cristina Mandrini (Chair) Hebe Cremades (Chair) Teresa Nieves Chinchilla Maria Kuznetsova Dipankar Banerjee Peng Fei Chen Alisson Dal Lago Guillermo Gim´enezde Castro Silvina Guidoni Marcelo L´opez Fuentes Dalmiro Maia Michael Marsh Luciano Rodr´ıguez Local Organizing Committee Carlos Francile (Chair) Laura Balmaceda Jos´eCastro Germ´anCristiani Fernando L´opez Marcelo L´opez Fuentes Natalia N´u~nez Ricardo Podest´a Sunday 7July Engineering Department Engineering Department Engineering Department Engineering Department 12:30 –14:00Lunch Break 10:45 – 11:15 Coffee Break Coffee 10:45 –11:15 15:30 – 16:00 Coffee Break 15:30 –16:00 Coffee School at Electromechanics School at Electromechanics School at Electromechanics School at Electromechanics Latin America Latin Schoolat Venue School at Venue 9:30 - 9:50Decker 9:00 – 9:30 Teriaca 9:00 –9:30 12:00 -12:20 Costa Saturday 6July 9:50 –10:10 Howard 12:20 –12:30 Closing 10:10 – 10:40 Tripathi 10:10–10:40 12:30- 12:40SW prog. NSF Hidalgo-Ramirez, Gulisano 13:10 –14:30Lunch Break 10:40 – 11:15 Coffee Break Coffee 10:40 –11:15 15:30 – 16:00 Coffee Break 15:30 –16:00 Coffee 11:15 – 12:00 3 contr. Golub, –12:00 3contr. 11:15 12:4013:10 - DiscussionSWx in Milligan Closing dinner Friday 5 July (Janvier, Cecere) (Janvier, 17:05 - 17:25 Bong 11:15 – 11:45 Dasso –11:45 11:15 17:45 – 18:05 Young 17:45 – 18:05 Molina, Perez-Alanis) 15:15 - 15:35 Zhukov 17:25 - 17:45Hudson 11:45 – 12:15 2 contr. –12:15 2contr. 11:45 14:30 – 15:15 3 contr. 14:30–15:15 3contr. 16:50 - 17:05 1 contr. 16:5017:051contr. - 16:30 - 16:50Klimchuk 9:30 –10:00 Richardson 12:15 - 12:35Georgoulis 16:00 –16:30 Chamberlin 12:35 –14:00Lunch Break 10:45 – 11:15 Coffee Break Coffee 10:45 –11:15 14:00 - 14:30 Collado-Vega 15:35 – 16:00 Coffee Break 15:35 –16:00 Coffee 10:00 – 10:45 3 contr. (Wu, (Wu, 10:00 –10:45 3contr. (Amerstorfer, Desai,Glocer) (Amerstorfer, 8:30 –9:30 SchoolVenue at Talk 19:00 –20:00 Outreach Esparza Vasquez 15:05 - 15:35 Mierla 16: 20 –16:50Klein 17:05 - 17:35 Linker Thursday 4 July 9:30 – 10:00 Habbal 10:00 –10:30 Green 17:50 - 18:10Brooks Webb, Sieyra, Lamy) Webb, 14:00 –14:20Gibson 11:15 – 12:30 5 contr. –12:30 5contr. 11:15 14:20 – 15:05 3 contr. 14:20–15:05 3contr. 17:35 – 17:50 1 contr. 17:35 –17:50 1contr. 10:30 –10:50 Veronig 16:00 –16:20Gonzalez (Talpeanu, Nitta, O'Kane) (Talpeanu, (Dissauer, Podladchikova, (Dissauer, 12:30 –14:00Lunch Break . 10:50 – 11:15 Coffee Break Coffee 10:50 –11:15 15:35 – 16:00 Coffee Break 15:35 –16:00 Coffee 8:30 –9:30 SchoolVenue at Talk 19:00 –20:00 Outreach 16:50 - 17:05 1 contr. Wijsen 16:50 - 17:05 1contr. Silva Break Break Casas) Musset Gesztelyi 17:20 -17:50 Guo 16:45 - 17:05 Raulin registrationvenue at 13:30 – 14:00 Nandi registration at venue 16:00 –16:30 Vilmer 13:00 – 13:30 Opening 16:30 – 16:45 1 contr. 16:30 –16:45 1contr. Wednesday 3 July 11:15 –12:00 School & 11:15 10:00 –10:45School & 14:00 – 14:30 Van Driel- 14:00 –14:30 Van Palacios, Yang, Buitrago- Yang, Palacios, 15:30 – 16:00 Coffee Break 15:30 –16:00 Coffee 12:00 –13:00 School Lunch 19:00 – 20:00 Outreach Talk 19:00 –20:00 Outreach 10:45 – 11:15 School Coffee SchoolCoffee 10:45 –11:15 17:05 – 17:20 1 contr. Valle Valle 17:05 –17:20 1contr. 17:50 - 18:05 1 contr. Berger 17:50 - 18:051contr. 14:30 – 15:30 4 contr. (Linan, 14:30 –15:30 4contr. Venue Observation Tuesday 2 July Welcome reception Welcome 11:00 –20:30 Eclipse 11:00 9:00 – 11:00 Registration at 9:00 –11:00 Venue Monday 1July University Residence 9:00 – 11:00 Registration at 9:00 –11:00 16:00 –18:00 Registration at 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00 10:30 11:00 11:30 12:00 12:30 13:00 13:30 14:00 14:30 15:00 15:30 16:00 16:30 17:00 17:30 18:00 18:30 19:00 19:30 20:30 Session 1 Space Weather: An Approach from the Solar Inte- rior to the Lower Solar Atmosphere FReSWeD 2019 Towards Future Research on Space Weather Drivers Forecasting Long-term Space Weather: A Dynamo Modeling Per- spective D. Nandi Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Kolkata Abstract. The Sun's magnetic cycle governs its radiation levels, particle flux output and the frequency of solar magnetic storms. Collectively these phenomena create space weather which impacts space- and ground-based technologies and drives Earths atmospheric dynamics. This has created the need to develop numerical model-based forecasting of solar activity. Successfully addressing this goal necessitates an understanding of the physics that governs high Reynolds number turbulent plasmas in the Suns interior, and building predictive dynamo models based on this understanding. This has remained an outstanding challenge for the community. In this talk, I will discuss the advances we have made in understanding the physics of solar cycle predictability over the last decade and present a physical model-based forecast for sunspot Cycle 25. Invited talk E-mail: [email protected] 1 2 - 7 July 2019 { San Juan, Argentina FReSWeD 2019 Towards Future Research on Space Weather Drivers Active Region Evolution and Dynamic Events L. van Driel-Gesztelyi UCL, MSSL, RH5 6NT, UK Observatoire de Paris, LESIA, France Konkoly Observatory, Budapest, Hungary Abstract. Solar activity is powered by free energy stored in magnetic fields and driven by evolving conditions. The strongest magnetic fields and highest amounts of free magnetic energy are present in solar active regions. Throughout their evolution, from their emergence through their decay, active regions are centres of magnetic activity, with the level and type of activity phenomena being dependent on the evolutionary stage of the active region. I will make an overview of typical dynamic events, which characterise specific evolutionary stages of active regions and also review how the magnetic evolution of active regions is reflected in the evolu- tion of plasma parameters, coronal plasma composition and flows, which are also magnetically driven. Invited talk E-mail: [email protected] 2 2 - 7 July 2019 { San Juan, Argentina FReSWeD 2019 Towards Future Research on Space Weather Drivers Time Variations of the Non-potential and Volume-threading Mag- netic Helicities L. Linan1, E. Pariat1, K. Moraitis1, G. Valori2, J. Leake3 1LESIA, Observatoire de Paris, Universit´ePSL, CNRS, Sorbonne Universit´e,Univ. Paris Diderot, Sorbonne Paris Cit´e,Meudon, France 2Mullard Space Science Laboratory, University College London, Holmbury St. Mary, Dorking, UK 3NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, USA Abstract. Relative magnetic helicity is a gauge invariant quantity suitable for the study of the magnetic helicity content of heliospheric plasmas. Relative magnetic helicity can be decomposed uniquely into two gauge invariant quantities, the magnetic helicity of the non- potential component of the field, and a complementary volume-threading helicity. Recent analysis of numerical experiments simulating the generation of solar eruptions have shown that the ratio of the non-potential helicity to the total relative helicity is a clear marker of the eruptivity of the magnetic system, and that the high value of that quantity could be a sufficient condition for the onset of the instability generating the eruptions. This study introduces the first analytical examination of the time variations of these non-potential and volume-threading helicities. The validity of the analytical formulas derived are confirmed with analysis of three- dimensional (3D) magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) simulations of solar coronal dynamics.