HUGO Assessing the economic and political environmentvision in New Zealand Confidential to March 3 2017 HUGO members Elevating Jacinda Page 2 Jacinda Ardern’s almost certain elevation to deputy leader of the Labour Party next week is giving the party a sustained burst of positive media coverage. In fact, it may be a rare case where media pressure was the catalyst for the change. Andrew Little didn’t see Annette King’s resignation coming. Does it matter that personal charm rather than policy impact is Ardern’s strongest suit to date? Maori seat arithmetic Page 2 To gain a fourth term without having to work with NZ First, National needs 47%-plus from the party vote and a Maori Party showing better than the two seats in Parliament it achieved in 2014. How do the portents for the seven Maori seats look now that the Mana and Maori parties have done a deal? Shane Jones and NZ First Page 3 Shane Jones has told so many people that he intends to stand for NZ First in Whangarei at this year’s election that it has seemed to be a fait accompli. However, it’s not yet a done deal. Peters and Jones have yet to meet face-to-face. That needs to happen in the next few weeks but it may not be plain sailing. Labour’s feint to Peters Page 2 The timing of Winston Peters’s nomination to be the second of two Opposition MPs on the sensitive Intelligence and Security Committee, replacing David Shearer, suggests Andrew Little has used the Greens’ poor showing in the Mt Albert by-election to demonstrate who’s in charge. Trump’s trade agenda becomes clearer Page 4 The Trump administration is fleshing out its ‘economic nationalist’ agenda with a detailed document on trade policy, which includes putting US law ahead of WTO trade agreement rules. Media plays Page 6 Sky TV and Vodafone are keeping their options open about a judicial review of the Commerce Commission’s rejection of their proposed merger. Focus is now turning to the NZME/Fairfax merger application, which is due for a decision on March 15. Fairfax has reiterated its intention to undertake a major down-sizing if the merger is declined, irrespective of the potential for appeal. RMA reforms Page 8 The select committee considering the Resource Legislation Amendment Bill, amending the RMA and other environmental law, has finished its deliberations. While Nick Smith expected it to emerge publicly earlier this week, at publication time, the massive Bill was still undergoing scrutiny at Parliament’s Tables Office. Text finalised March 3 Contact: [email protected]. No responsibility is accepted for acts or omissions by clients as a result of items herein. © The Hugo Group 2017 HUGOvision March 3 2017 POLITICS AND POLICY How powerful a new weapon is about her Mt Albert win, there was no National Party candidate in the race and turnout was low. Jacinda Ardern for Labour? Ardern’s tally was less than National’s Melissa Lee Annette King succumbed to logic after what appears scored in 2014, when she lost to David Shearer. to have been a series of phone calls following the David Clark is likely to replace King as health Mt Albert by-election and resigned on Wednesday. spokesperson – he worked on health issues when he The logic was simple: Jacinda Ardern (and Michael was at Treasury – and logically his trade portfolio Wood last year) had shown Labour could make should return to David Parker who already inroads into the National vote in Auckland, but has Foreign Affairs. Who might get Economic a party whose leader, deputy leader and finance Development is more open. Megan Woods? Iain spokesperson all came from Wellington was at a Lees-Galloway? disadvantage if it wanted to capitalise on that. Labour is achieving little cut-through in Greens underperform in Mt Albert the Auckland business community, where a There has been little media comment about the very presumption appears to reign that National will poor showing from Greens candidate, Julie-Anne return to govt somehow. This week’s Roy Morgan Genter, in the Mt Albert by-election. The affluent, poll, putting National at 48% and Labour at 26% gentrifying electorate should have been rich pickings certainly justifies that for the meantime, although for the Greens, but Ms Genter only managed about the same poll shows a big spike in concern about 11% of the vote, even when there was no National housing (graphic, p3). But Labour is putting a huge candidate standing. Labour is reading this as effort into Auckland and is convinced there is a ‘soft’ confirmation of the argument that when Labour middle class National vote available to it, based is seen as credible, Green voters switch back to on the showings from Ardern and Wood in this Labour. They also see the relatively low vote as year’s by-elections. The argument is that National evidence that Labour has not suffered any damage as has lost its advantage in Auckland since John Key’s a consequence of the Willie Jackson decision. departure. While no one in Labour will say that Little has yet to get on top of English, adding a telegenic And Little courts Peters young Auckland-based woman to the leadership The decision by Andrew Little to nominate Winston team should be a plus. Peters to the Intelligence and Security Committee However, we suggest a couple of caveats on this to replace David Shearer puts the Greens in their theory. Firstly, it’s by no means clear that Ardern’s place as far as Labour is concerned, which is that if sudden elevation was planned. King appears to push comes to shove after the election, Labour would have taken advice from trusted colleagues, but not govern with NZ First. This ought to worry National. told Little she was contemplating resignation as the media clamour for change rose. There is also the Maori seat arithmetic fact that Ardern has achieved little in Parliament Two public opinion polls published in the last other than to become a bit of a star in Auckland. fortnight suggest the govt’s preferred option of Conservative by upbringing and conventional in her governing with the ongoing assistance of minor policy instincts, she will be tested if, for example, parties remains realistic for the time being. she were to become more popular than low-ranking Little, or to be pushed to the leadership if Labour Colmar Brunton’s OneNews poll taken between Feb loses in September. Finally, for all the back-slapping 11 and 15 gave National 46%, at the lower end of the range it needs to achieve to govern without NZ First, 2014 results Electorate Mana+Maori Labour Lab + Green Sitting MP M = Challenger Maori Party Te Tai Tokerau 11,548 9712 * Kelvin Davis (L) Hone Harawira (Mana) Tamaki-Makaurau 8695 7533 10,669 Peeni Henare (L) Unknown (M) Hauraki-Waikato 7612 12,191 * Nanaia Mahuta (L) Unknown (M) Waiariki 15,208 5837 * Te Uruora Flavell (M) Unknown (L) Te Tai Hauauru 8475 8089 11,093 Adrian Rurawhe (L) Howie Tamati (M) Ikaroa-Rawhiti 8928 9753 11,867 Meka Whaitiri (L) Marama Fox (M) Te Tai Tonga 6887 8445 11,618 Rino Tirikatene (L) Unknown (M) 2 *= no Green Winnable pre-greens Winnable HUGOvision March 3 2017 POLITICS AND POLICY while the more volatile Roy Morgan poll, fixed at Feb to help Labour’s Greg O’Connor against Peter 12, gave National 48%, a commanding position from Dunne. which to form a govt, assuming ACT, United Future And while senior National Party figures believe the and the Maori Party all win seats on Sept 23. Maori Party could win three electorate seats and The Maori electorate equation has potential to will try to help make that happen, that may be less deliver more than just the Waiariki electorate, now help than it looks unless the Maori Party were to that the Maori and Mana parties have reached poll above 2% on the party vote. If it were to hold an accommodation giving the Maori Party no at 2014’s 1.3% party vote, winning three electorate opposition from Mana in six of the seven Maori seats. seats would create overhang seats, complicating the Based on a simple analysis that combines votes parliamentary arithmetic. cast for the Mana and Maori electorate candidates At this stage, our expectation is that Labour and the in the 2014 election, three seats are potentially Maori Party would be unlikely to work together. Bad winnable by the Maori Party: Waiariki, which the blood between the two is intense. Andrew Little’s Maori Party already holds, Tamaki-Makaurau and claim the Maori Party was not operating to “kaupapa Te Tai Hauauru, as long as the substantial Green Maori” angered many Maori, irrespective of political Party vote in the latter two electorates is ignored. allegiance. Is that assumption reasonable? Tamaki-Makaurau, where the Maori Party had hoped to pitch Willie Shane Jones and NZ First – not yet a done Jackson before he defected to Labour, is difficult. deal The Maori Party is back to square one on candidate Despite the widespread expectation that former selection, mulling, among others, former TVNZ Labour Minister Shane Jones will emerge as the NZ journalist Shane Taurima, who is talented but is not First candidate for Whangarei, not to mention heir well-known. Te Tai Hauauru is a realistic bet, where apparent to Winston Peters, the deal is not yet done. former rugby league star Howie Tamati is judged to Jones’s role as a Pacific fisheries ambassador ends in have a reasonable shot at ousting Adrian Rurawhe.