volume 8 volume 8 number 4 number 4 December 2005 Economic Bulletin Economic Bulletin December 2005 E C O N O M I C December B U L L E T I N 2 0 0 5 B a n k o f A l b a n i a PB Bank of Albania Bank of Albania volume 8 volume 8 number 4 number 4 December 2005 Economic Bulletin Economic Bulletin December 2005 If you use data from this publication, you are requested to cite the source. Published by : Bank of Albania, Sheshi “Skënderbej”, No.1, Tirana, Albania Tel : 355-4-222230; 235568; 235569; Fax : 355-4-223558 E-mail: [email protected] www.bankofalbania.org Printed by: Printing House of Bank of Albania Printed in: 600 copies 2 Bank of Albania Bank of Albania volume 8 volume 8 number 4 number 4 December 2005 Economic Bulletin Economic Bulletin December 2005 C O N T E N T S Monetary policy report on second semester of 2005, January 2006 7 I. Governor’s speech 7 II. World economy 0 III. Albanian economy over the second semester 2 IV Monetary policy and monetary indicators 29 V Albanian economy in 2006 9 External sector developments of the Albanian economy during the nine-month period of 2005 44 I. Current account 44 II. Capital and financial account 47 Assessment of the financial situation of the Albanian banking system for the third quarter of 2005 49 Speech by Ardian Fullani, the Governor of the Bank of Albania At the ceremony dedicated to the launch of the “Autumn 2005” issue of the legal journal “Law in transition, on-line”, published by EBRD. “Rogner” hotel, Tirana, October 8, 2005 5 Greeting Speech by Ardian Fullani, the Governor of the Bank of Albania At the 5th anniversary ceremony of the National Commercial Bank privatization. Sheraton Hotel, Tirana, October 8, 2005 55 Greeting Speech by Ardian Fullani, the Governor of the Bank of Albania In the “Business – Bank Communication Day“, organized by the Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Tirana, in cooperation with the Albanian Banking Association. Hotel Tirana Internacional, Tirana, October 20, 2005 6 Speech by Ardian Fullani, the Governor of the Bank of Albania The Southeastern Financial Forum, the Second Edition. Romania, November 8-, 2005 62 Greeting speech by Ardian Fullani, the Governor of the Bank of Albania At the Open Forum “Preconditions for Inflation Targeting in Albania”. Tirana, December -2, 2005 67 Farewell Speech by Ardian Fullani, the Governor of the Bank of Albania At the Open Forum “Preconditions for Inflation Targeting in Albania”. Tirana, December -2, 2005 70 Speech by Ardian Fullani, the Governor of the Bank of Albania At the Euro Mediterranean Conference on Micro Credit. Rome 5th-6th December 2005 7 Speech by Ardian Fullani, the Governor of the Bank of Albania At the press conference organized in the context of the Financial Sector Assessment Program. Tirana International Hotel, 5 December 2005 77 A survey on time series of deposits, loans and net foreign assets of the Bank of Albania 80 Important elements of the International Financial Reporting Standards 00 Bank of Albania news during october - december 2005 2 Legal events during October - December 2005 2 Bank of Albania management, December , 2005 29 List of all entities licensed by the Bank of Albania 130 Banks and branches of foreign banks 0 Non-bank institutions Financial institutions not licensed by the Bank of Albania to conduct of their activities according to the Supervisory Council decision No. 26, dated 29.0.2000 “On exemption of some institutions from applying the provisions of law No.865, dated 02.07.998 “On banking law in the Republic of Albania” 5 Foreign exchange bureaus 6 Unions of savings and credit associations 4 Representative offices of foreign banks 4 2 Bank of Albania Bank of Albania volume 8 volume 8 number 4 number 4 December 2005 Economic Bulletin Economic Bulletin December 2005 T A B L E S Monetary policy report on second semester of 2005 Table Some main economic indicators (annual change in percentage) 0 Table 2 World oil demand and supply (in million bpd) Table Agricultural production forecasts by sectors, in percentage 4 Table 4 Industry performance over third quarter of 2005 (in percentage) 4 Table 5 Main indicators of the electrical energy balance sheet (in GWh) 5 Table 6 Labour market indicators (in thousand people). 6 Table 7 Main fiscal indicators (in percentage to GDP) 7 Table 8 Annual growth rates of main fiscal indicators (in percentage) 8 Table 9 Main indicators (progressive data – in billion lek) 8 Table 0 Composition of current expenditures (in billion lek – progressive data) 9 Table Main balance of payments items by quarters (in million euro) 20 Table 2 Balance of payments according to quarters 2 Table Annual inflation (in percentage) 2 Table 4 Annual inflation of “Foodstuffs and non-alcoholic beverages” (within the country and abroad) and the contribution of this group to total inflation 24 Table 5 Annual inflation rate and contribution of “Rent, water, fuels, energy” to total inflation 25 Table 6 Annual inflation of partner countries and exchange rate spread (in percentage) 28 Table 7 Partner countries’ inflation and exchange rate annual change (in percentage) 29 Table 8 Realization of quantitative objectives of the Bank of Albania 0 Table 9 Monetary indicators performance in July-November (in billion lek) 2 Table 20 Performance of essential indicators Table 2 Outstanding credit indicators in percentage to the total Table 22 Credit by the economy sectors (in percentage to total) 4 Table 2 New credit indicators (percentage to total) 4 Table 24 Interest rates performance (in percentage point) 7 Table 25 Lek deposit interest rates (in percentage points) 8 Table 26 Lek credit interest rates (in percentage point) 8 Table 27 Main macroeconomic indicators 40 External sector developments of the Albanian economy during the nine-month period of 2005 Table Balance of Payments (in millions of EUR) 48 A survey on time series of deposits, loans and net foreign assets of the bank of albania Table New credit (in billions of lek) 89 Table 2 Credit to economy 92 4 Bank of Albania Bank of Albania 5 volume 8 volume 8 number 4 number 4 December 2005 Economic Bulletin Economic Bulletin December 2005 C H A R T S Monetary policy report on second semester of 2005 Chart Crude oil prices (in American dollars per barrel) Chart 2 USD/Euro exchange rate 2 Chart Annual sales change by quarters (in percentage) 2 Chart 4 Economy sales performance during Q ’0 – Q ’05 Chart 5 Sectors contribution to the economy sales (in percentage) Chart 6 Quarterly sales change in “Trade, hotels and restaurants” (in percentage) Chart 7 Annual growth rates of sales in construction (in percentage) 5 Chart 8 Construction costing index 5 Chart 9 Transport investments in years* according to resources (in billion leks) 6 Chart 0 The unemployed number over three last years (in thousand people) 7 Chart Monthly budget deficit for 2005 (in billion lek) 9 Chart 2 Foreign trade balance sheet (in million euro) 2 Chart Services according to quarters (in million euro) 2 Chart 4 Income by quarters (in million euro) 22 Chart 5 Transfers according to quarters (in million euro) 22 Chart 6 Annual inflation (in percentage) 24 Chart 7 Contribution of main groups to annual inflation (in percentage point) 24 Chart 8 Annual inflation of four main groups of the CPI basket (in percentage) 2 5 Chart 9 Annual growth of budget expenditures (on the right) and annual inflation (on the left) 26 Chart 20 Annual changes of money supply and of currency outside banks to M 27 Chart 2 Annual nominal lek/euro exchange rate spread, imported inflation (left axis) and the country’s inflation (right axis) 27 Chart 22 Annual inflation of “Foodstuffs and non-alcoholic beverages” in Italy and Greece (left axis) and Albania (right axis) 28 Chart 2 Annual change of production and consumer price index (in percentage) 28 Chart 24 Performance of monetary conditions in economy 29 Chart 25 The 2-month treasury bills yield 29 Chart 26 Annual monetary aggregate rates Chart 27 Currency outside banks to M2 and real interest rate (on the right) Chart 28 Ratio of foreign currency deposits to lek deposits 2 Chart 29 Contribution of money demand constituents Chart 0 Annual credit growth by currencies and in total 4 Chart Banking system net foreign assets level 5 Chart 2 Cumulative performance of budget deficit financing (in billion lek) 6 Chart Daily lending to interbank market and liquidity level (in billion lek) 6 Chart 4 Key interest rate and response of interbank market interests 7 Chart 5 Interest rate performance (in percentage) 7 Chart 6 Average weighted interests of credits in foreign currency 8 Chart 7 Lek exchange rate performance and NEER 9 Chart 8 Exchange rate performance of the lek and the NEER (on the right) 9 A survey on time series of deposits, loans and net foreign assets of the bank of albania Chart Broad money constituents (in percentage) Period: December 99 – June 2005 8 Chart 2 Residents’ demand deposits in lek (in millions of leks) Period: December 992 – June 2005 8 Chart Ratio of DD/ M (in percentage) Period: December 99 – June 2005 84 Chart 4 Residents’ time deposits in ALL (in millions of leks) Period: December 992 – June 2005 85 Chart 5 Residents’ foreign currency deposits (in millions of leks) Period: December 992 – June 2005 87 Chart 6 Credit to economy by sectors (in millions of leks) Period: December 992 – June 2005 88 Chart 7 Credit quality (in percentage) Period: December 200 – June 2005 90 4 Bank of Albania Bank of Albania 5 volume 8 volume 8 number 4 number 4 December 2005 Economic Bulletin