SPECIAL REPORT 130 NO. MARCH 2021 © 2021 Observer Research Foundation. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, copied, archived, retained or transmitted through print, speech or electronic media without prior written approval from ORF. PERSPECTIVES ON THE ‘NEW NORMAL’ IN KASHMIR Ayjaz Wani ABSTRACT repealed Article 35A. The conversations with his report collates insights the respondents covered issues such as their from unstructured interviews livelihoods and the economy, the bureaucracy, with people in South and militancy in the region. The report is an Kashmir about their lives attempt to document some of the most crucial following the Constitutional impacts of the Constitutional amendments Tamendments of August 2019 that revoked which directly affect the everyday lives of the the special status of the erstwhile state of people in the Valley. Jammu and Kashmir under Article 370, and Attribution: Ayjaz Wani, “Perspectives on the ‘New Normal’ in Kashmir,” ORF Special Report No. 130, March 2021, Observer Research Foundation. INTRODUCTION amendments.3 The Declaration argued that the constitutional changes were “spitefully short sighted” n 5 August 2019, the government and “grossly unconstitutional”, and they have of India revoked the special changed the relationship between New Delhi and constitutional status of the state J&K.4 The Union government, for its part, defended of Jammu and Kashmir under the amendments and said they were made to ensure article 370 of the Constitution, better administration, good governance and faster and abrogated article 35A which had allowed the O economic development in the region. state to define who the ‘permanent residents’ of the state are and what rights and privileges are This special report is an attempt to gather attached to such residency. Since then, analysts lay perspectives in the Valley. Between May and have dissected the manifold ramifications of December 2020, the author engaged in face-to- the government’s decision. New Delhi took the face personal interviews with different groups of decision, according to some analysts, to alter people in the Kashmir Valley—farmers, business the institutional framework in accordance with and trading community, and the youth. The author future aspirations of the stakeholders of Jammu chose to speak to these communities to fill the gap and Kashmir.1 Other analyses cautioned that the in analyses that have been done on the region in the new structures will fuel the negative perceptions past 30 years. The interviews—which were in the of the people of the region towards the Union vernacular—were conducted either in public places government.2 like markets and colleges, or inside the homes of the respondents. They aimed to draw insights into the Indeed, statements from both “autonomists”— people’s expectations of the administrative structures spoken for by regional parties, and “centralists”— that were established after the constitutional changes. represented by New Delhi—have not helped The author then consulted secondary sources eliminate these negative perceptions. On 22 including government statements and data, as well August 2020, the autonomists, consisting of six as news reports, to provide context to the inferences regional political parties of Jammu and Kashmir drawn from the exercise. including the National Conference (NC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), issued the ‘Gupkar Declaration’ to demand for the restoration of Article 370 and Article 35A in the form that they took before the August 2019 3 FINDINGS AND ANALYSIS Administration The interviewees for this report agree that the COVID-19-induced lockdown was only a subset of A majority of the elderly people that this author the lengthy security “lockdown” in Kashmir that interviewed for this report see no distinction between a ended in February 2021. Both measures, in their the current administration and the Dogra one that view, have been used to make structural changes governed the region from 1846 to 1947.10 During in the bureaucracy in the region. A former Chief the Dogra period, Muslims were generally not Minister and current Member of Parliament has permitted to become officers in the state’s military pointed out that most of the high-ranking officers and were virtually unrepresented in the state’s civil in the J&K Police, government offices, and banks administration. The administration was largely are now Hindus, which was not the case before 5 representative of the Sikh and Hindu “martial” 5 August 2019. For example, Lieutenant Governor castes such as Dogras and Rajputs.11 Manoj Sinha’s 13-member secretariat does not have a single Muslim official.6 Most of the staff Economy in the offices of the director-general of police (DGP) and the Chief Justice of the High Court, Between August 2019 and July 2020, the economy as well as senior staff of the Union Territory’s of Kashmir lost INR 400,000 million and more than chief secretary, are non-Muslims.7 Similarly, 100,000 jobs—mostly in the sectors of handicraft, b, 12 the 10-member governing body and board of tourism, and information technology. In September directors of the J&K Bank has only two Kashmiri 2020, the Lieutenant Governor (LG) announced a Muslims.8 In May 2018, out of nine members of INR 1,3500-million economic stimulus package for the governing body and the board of directors, tourism and other sectors that have been hardest five including the chair were Muslims.9 hit by the economic fallout amidst both the security lockdown, and the COVID-19 pandemic.13 Under the package, the government waived 50 percent of electricity and water bills for hoteliers and tourism businesses. The LG also announced a credit of INR 200,000 at 7 percent interest to those working in the handicraft and handloom sector.14 a At the time of writing this report, 4G services have been restored and security bunkers that were put up in Srinagar have been pulled down. b Tourism alone contributes 7 percent of Kashmir’s GDP. 4 In November 2020, the LG announced the formulation of a plan to make Kashmir a “preferred tourist destination”. The announcement was made during a virtual In 2020, despite the high demand for apple, 80 inauguration of the Comprehensive Mansar percent of production was ruined by substandard Rejuvenation and Development Plan worth INR fungicides and pesticides, and many farmers were 17 1980 million, which aims to make the Mansar pushed to indebtedness. The farmers in Kashmir lake in Jammu an important tourist destination. who were interviewed for this report, accused the government of colluding with pesticide companies.18 Another sector that has been severely hit by Following the outcry, the government established the cascading impacts of the security lockdown two state-of-the-art pesticide testing labs in north and COVID-19 is horticulture—the second most and south Kashmir.19 important sector of Kashmir’s economy on which more than 1.5 million families are dependent. With the economy reeling under the twin impacts Within this sector is the apple industry, which of the Constitutional amendments and the lockdown, produces 2.2 million metric tonnes of produce the educated youth numbering 250,000 have found 20 every year worth INR 80 billion15 and contributes it more difficult to seek gainful employment. eight percent of J&K’s GDP. In 2019, threats from According to the Centre for Monitoring Indian militants, and the government’s military response, Economy (CMIE), the unemployment rate in delayed the harvest for over a month during peak October 2020 in the new UT of Jammu and Kashmir 21 harvest season. Hundreds of farmers were forced was at 16.2 percent—the second worst across India. to either sell their produce at throwaway prices It quickly grew to 21.9 percent by January 2021, or leave them to rot. By March 2020, when the making J&K India’s highest-ranked region in terms c, 22 nationwide lockdown was enforced as a response of unemployment. In response, the Jammu and to the initial onslaught of COVID-19, more than Kashmir government on 10 July 2020, advertised three million cartons of apples lying in cold 8,575 class-4 posts to be filled through the J&K storage did not get any buyers.16 State Selection Board (JKSSB). After 17 days, some 323,690 jobseekers had responded.23 In January 2021, LG Sinha announced the INR 284000-million Industrial Development Package-2021, aimed at creating 450,000 new jobs and attract INR 20,0000 million in investments over the next 17 years.24 c Compared to the national average unemployment rate, which is at 6.7 percent. 5 The number of stone-pelting incidents and strikes have also drastically come down after 5 August 2019, as have protests at encounter sites.29 According to While high levels of unemployment have official data, Kashmir witnessed only 255 stone- been an enduring problem in the region, the pelting incidents in 202030 as compared to 1,999 educated youth interviewed for this report are of in 2019, 1,458 in 2018, and 1,412 in 2017.31 Many the view that the situation has worsened after the of the interviewees for this report noted that mass Constitutional amendments. They shared their participation in ‘quasi-violence’ including stone- fears of not being able to go outside Kashmir for pelting has decreased substantially, as compared to work because of what they perceive is the growing pre-August 2019. They said they felt safer, especially prejudice against Muslims, which is not helped for their children. A reason for the decline in quasi- by what they view as loud anti-Kashmiri rhetoric violent incidents is that state forces, especially Army 25 being broadcast in national television. officials, have been reaching out to the people to Militancy attempt to redress their grievances.