THE HORN OF AFRICA: HISTORICAL PATTERNS OF CONFLICT AND STRATEGIC CONSIDERATIONS Michael Milan Ferguson NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL Monterey, California THESIS THE HORN OF AFRICA: HISTORICAL PATTERNS OF CONFLICT AND STRATEGIC CONSIDERATIONS by Michael Milan Ferguson Seotember 1978 Thesis Advisor: B. M. Schutz Approved for public release; distribution unlimited T185069 Unclassified SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CAGE (Whmn Dmlm Enlmd) READ INSTRUCTIONS REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE BEFORE COMPLETING FORM REPORT NUMBER 2. GOVT ACCESSION NO 3. RECIPIENT'S CATALOG NUMBER 4. TITLE ('•rid Subtlllo) S. TYPE OF REPORT a PERIOD COVERED The Horn of Africa: Historical Patterns Master's Thesis; of Conflict and Strategic Considerations Se ptember 197? «. PERFORMING ORG. REPORT NUMBER 7. AUTHOR'*; S CONTRACT OR GRANT NUMBER'^ Michael Milan Ferguson 9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND A00RE5S 10. PROGRAM ELEMENT, PROJECT TASK AREA 4 WORK UNIT NUMBERS Naval Postgraduate School Monterey, CA 93940 II. CONTROLLING OFFICE NAME AND AOORESS 12. REPORT DATE Naval Postgraduate School SqptQTiher 1978 Monterey, CA 93940 13. NUMBER OF PAGES 156 14. MONITORING AGENCY NAME 4. AOORESS'// dlllmtmnt Irom Controlling Olllcm) 15. SECURITY CLASS, (ol ihi. riport) Naval Postgraduate School Unclassified Monterey, CA 93940 I So. DECLASSIFI CATION/ DOWN GRADING SCHEDULE 16. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT (ol thl. Report; Approved for public release; distribution unlimited 17. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT (ol tho mbmlrmel mnlmrmd In Block 30, II dlllmtmnt tram Report; 18. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 19. KEY WORDS (Conllnum on rowormo tldm II nmcmmmmrr and Identity by block numbor) 20. ABSTRACT (Contlnum an rmvmtmm lid* It nmemmmmrr mnd Identity by block mtmbme) There have been few attempts to combine the historical social, and political variables which make up the regional system that is the Horn of Africa. This work presents an encapsulated analysis that attemptsto provide a "complete picture" of the attitudes, events and external intrusions which contribute to the situation as it exists today. The Horn of Africa is viewed from four per- spectives: (1) internal aspects, (2) regional linkages, (3) r DD ,5 \Tn 1473 EDITION Or 1 MOV SS IS OBSOLETE Unclassified S/N 0102-014-6601 | SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE (Wnmn Dmlm Sntmrmd) . Unclassified ueumTv cl »i»i*iC»tion o» this nocrinw r>.<« tntmt+d external influences, and (4) an historical interpretation. These four viewpoints are integrated to form strategic con- siderations and conclusions regarding the region and the potential areas of conflict or cooperation between the involved actors during the next decade. The Horn of Africa has, does, and will in the future play an active and crucial political role, not only in Africa, but in the international system. This research is an attempt to provide policy makers with a perspective in planning for that future DD 1473 Unclassified 1 QV*tJan 73 S/N 0102-014-6601 2secumTY clami»ication or this p*oer»»«« o«»« *»»..•*) Approved for public release; distribution unlimited The Horn of Africa: Historical Patterns of Conflict and Strategic Considerations by Michael Milan Ferguson Captain, United States Army B.S., The University of the State of New York, 1976 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN NATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL September 1978 I ABSTRACT There have been few attempts to combine the historical social, and political variables which make up the regional system that is the Horn of Africa. This work presents an encapsulated analysis that attempts to provide a "complete picture" of the attitudes, events and external intrusions which contribute to the situation as it exists today. The Horn of Africa is viewed from four perspectives: (1) internal aspects, (2) regional linkages, (3) external influences, and (4) an historical interpretation. These four viewpoints are integrated to form strategic con- siderations and conclusions regarding the region and the potential areas of conflict or cooperation between the involved actors during the next decade. The Horn of Africa has , does , and will in the future play an active and crucial political role , not only in Africa, but in the international system. This research is an attempt to provide policy makers with a perspective in planning for that future. TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION 9' A. SURVEY OF THE LITERATURE 11 B. OBJECTIVES OF THE RESEARCH 15 C. METHODOLOGY AND ORGANIZATION 15 II. THE REGION, ITS PEOPLE, AND EARLY HISTORY 13 A. THE REGION 13 B. THE PEOPLE 21 C. EARLY HISTORY 24 1. In the Beginning 24 2. I 'fat to the Gragn - The Moslem Assaults 30 3. Pagans, Popes, and Princes 36 4. Three Kings - Tewdoros, Johannes and Menelik 3 9 III. THE MODERN BACKDROP 53 A. POLITICAL GEOGRAPHY 53 B . THE ITALIAN IMPACT 57 1. Ethiopia 57 2. Eritrea 66 3. Somalia 68 IV. NATIONLESS STATES AND STATELESS NATIONS 7 ^ A. ETHIOPIA 75 1. An International Actor 75 2. The First Coup 78 3. The Revolution 31 M- . Enter the Soviet Union 82 B. SOMALIA 35 1. Irridentism 85 2. The Soviet Entry and the 1969 Coup 87 3. The Drought 92 4. A Soviet Client State? 94 5. The Exodus 95 C. ERITREA 93 1. Colony to Independence 93 2. The Emperor Takes Charge 101 3. Rebellion in the North 102 V. MUSICAL CHAIRS ON THE HORN: THE NATIONAL INTERESTS 10 7 A. THE UNITED STATES 108 B. THE SOVIET UNION 110 1. Counter U.S. Influence 111 2. Projection of Power 111 3. Ideological Commitment 121 C. CUBA 124 D. CHINA 125 E. FRANCE AND DJIBOUTI 128 F. THE AFRICAN STATES 130 G. THE MIDDLE EAST AND THE PERSIAN GULF 13 2 VI. CONCLUSIONS -136 APPENDIX A - SOLOMONID LEGEND 142 BIBLIOGRAPHY 14 4 INITIAL DISTRIBUTION LIST 154 LIST OF MAPS 1. The Horn of Africa - PHYSICAL FEATURES 20 2. The Horn of Africa - LINGUISTIC GROUPS 23 3. Ethiopia and Somalia - IN THE NINETEENTH CENTURY 48 4. The Horn of Africa - POLITICAL GEOGRAPHY 5 5 5. The Indian Ocean - NAVAL AND AIR FACILITIES 113 , ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Although I realize that acknowledgements tend to make trivial true appreciation, I can think of no other way to express the deep gratitude I feel to those who contributed toward the completion of this effort. Professors Jiri Valenta, Stephen Jurika and Ronald Sherwin of the National Security Affairs Department, Naval Postgraduate School read parts of this manuscript and provided helpful comments and moral support. I am particularly grateful to Professors John Amos and Ralph Magnus who read the final draft. From the outset the continual encouragement and assist- ance of Professor Barry Schutz, my thesis advisor, who sacrificed much of his time and energies during a difficult year ensured that I "got it all done." My debt to him is great No acknowledgement would be complete without commenting on the enormous contribution made by my wife Denise . She did not read or comment on anything herein, but without her support and consideration in all matters I would accomplish nothing. Sheer numbers and in some cases considerations for the personal safety of those Africans whom I was privileged to know during my stay in Ethiopia preclude my mentioning them all. However, it is with deep respect and a profound sense of loss that I dedicate this work to Captain Eyasu Zego Infantry, Ethiopian Army, an Eritrean, who died for his country near Harar in May 197 7. 8 I. INTRODUCTION Geography is the force which has caused international concern with the Horn of Africa. Because of their location, the countries which make up the Horn are involved in the political realities of the Middle East, the Indian Ocean, (including the Persian Gulf), and, of course, Africa. Oil from Iran to Israel and Europe, and the renewed flow of commerce between East Africa, Asia, and the Gulf must pass near the Somali coast, through the Straits of the Bab-el-Mandib , and along the coast of Ethiopia and Eritrea en route to the Suez Canal. Naturally, the ability to monitor the traffic and to conduct military operations against targets on the sea lanes from coastal ports and airfields on the Horn has occupied the minds of many strategists. Not surprisingly, these capabilities have been the genesis of much of the external involvement in the area. Of equal, if not greater, importance is the significance of the Horn as a "spring-board" into central and southern Africa, the oil rich Arabian Pen- insula and the sensitive areas of Sudan and Egypt. The events of 1977 have resulted in a need to reevaluate critically long standing notions about the Horn. The con- tinuing conflict between the two principal regional actors (Ethiopia and Somalia) and the impending escalation of events in Eritrea have impacted not only on United States policy . , and strategies in the region, but have resulted in grave concern in bordering states where the United States has vital interests The complete renversement of the Ethiopians and Somalis and the introduction of Soviet and Cuban military forces and hardware has attracted the interests of the Arab and African Worlds. This introduction of additional actors and the con- comitant conflict between previously clear interests and strategies creates a situation of potential great danger for stability in a region contiguous with the already super- critical Middle East. Most studies relative to the Horn, its actors and their relationships with the rest of the world tend to fall into three categories -- pure history, social anthropology, and political science. This statement is probably true of studies done on any region or state and of itself is unremarkable yet a closer examination of the work on the Horn reveals a major shortcoming. The fact is that although a good many excellent books have been written about each of these aspects with regard to the Horn, there have been few attempts to weave together all three aspects in order to obtain a complete picture.