Post-Communism or Post-Colonialism? Soviet Imperial Legacies and Regime Diversity in East Europe and the Former USSR Jessica Fortin Department of Political Science McGill University, Montreal July 31 2008 A thesis submitted to McGill University in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. © Jessica Fortin 2008 Library and Archives Bibliotheque et 1*1 Canada Archives Canada Published Heritage Direction du Branch Patrimoine de I'edition 395 Wellington Street 395, rue Wellington OttawaONK1A0N4 OttawaONK1A0N4 Canada Canada Your file Votre reference ISBN: 978-0-494-53492-2 Our file Notre reference ISBN: 978-0-494-53492-2 NOTICE: AVIS: The author has granted a non­ L'auteur a accorde une licence non exclusive exclusive license allowing Library and permettant a la Bibliotheque et Archives Archives Canada to reproduce, Canada de reproduire, publier, archiver, publish, archive, preserve, conserve, sauvegarder, conserver, transmettre au public communicate to the public by par telecommunication ou par I'lnternet, prefer, telecommunication or on the Internet, distribuer et vendre des theses partout dans le loan, distribute and sell theses monde, a des fins commerciales ou autres, sur worldwide, for commercial or non­ support microforme, papier, electronique et/ou commercial purposes, in microform, autres formats. paper, electronic and/or any other formats. The author retains copyright L'auteur conserve la propriete du droit d'auteur ownership and moral rights in this et des droits moraux qui protege cette these. Ni thesis. Neither the thesis nor la these ni des extraits substantiels de celle-ci substantial extracts from it may be ne doivent etre imprimes ou autrement printed or otherwise reproduced reproduits sans son autorisation. without the author's permission. In compliance with the Canadian Conformement a la loi canadienne sur la Privacy Act some supporting forms protection de la vie privee, quelques may have been removed from this formulaires secondaires ont ete enleves de thesis. cette these. While these forms may be included Bien que ces formulaires aient inclus dans in the document page count, their la pagination, il n'y aura aucun contenu removal does not represent any loss manquant. of content from the thesis. •*• Canada Abstract While post-communist countries share a common past, the variability of outcomes in both democracy and economic reform is very large in the region. Only a few countries have become Western-type democracies in Eastern and Central Europe and the Baltic. By contrast, the norm is clearly not democracy for other Soviet successor states: regimes range from semi-autocratic to downright repressive. In my doctoral dissertation, I attribute this variation to differences in the infrastructural capacity of the state. Using both quantitative and qualitative analyses within 21 post-communist countries, I argue that for democracy to flourish, the state must first possess the means necessary to maintain law and order, to protect the rights of citizens, in other words, to insure the maintenance and delivery of essential public goods. The results show that on the one hand, the links between a strong state that has been able to apply a definitive set of rules, and democratic institutions are clear. On the other hand, where state capacity was more limited after independence was gained, democracy was a less likely outcome. By trying to recentralize power to compensate for the state's administrative limitations, executive authorities also had a parallel tendency to build vertical structures of authority and to suppress liberties and freedoms. In turn, I explore the sources of infrastructural state capacity at the onset of independence. Soviet rule did not leave uniform traces on societies: there were important variations in ruling patterns from Eastern Europe to Central Asia. Therefore this dissertation explores how the shape of colonial ties shared by each entity with the former metropolitan center had direct implications on the administrative capacity of the successor states. In short, the coupling of heavy state engineering with low levels of state penetration and high levels of exploitation were least conducive to the construction of robust state structures. Resume A ce jour, les pays post-communistes presenters de considerables differences en termes de democratie et de reformes economiques, ce, malgre un passe commun. En fait, seulement quelques pays d'Europe Centrale et de l'Est ainsi que les republiques Baltes, ont acquis le statut de democraties. Pour les autres anciennes republiques Sovietiques, la norme est toute autre. La plupart d'entre elles affichent des regimes soit semi-democratiques, ou tout simplement autoritaires. Dans le but d'expliquer cette difference, je fais appel au concept de capacite etatique, qui refere a 1'infrastructure de l'appareil d'etat. A l'aide d'analyses quantitatives ainsi que qualitatives menees dans 21 pays post-communistes, cette dissertation verifie l'hypothese suivante : un Etat doit etre en mesure de maintenir la loi et l'ordre, de proteger les droits des citoyens, en d'autres mots de garantir Pallocation d'une certaine classe de biens publics, pour qu'un regime democratique puisse y apparaitre et persister. Les resultats des analyses menees etablissent la presence d'une robuste association entre, d'un cote des institutions democratiques, et de l'autre, un certain niveau de capacite etatique. Dans les Etats ou cette capacite etait limitee au moment de l'independance, une conclusion democratique etait moins probable. En tentant de re-centraliser les pouvoirs de l'Etat pour compenser certaines faiblesses administratives, plusieurs gouvernements ont eu tendance a construire des structures d'autorite verticales et a ainsi limiter les liberies des citoyens. En retour, cette dissertation explore egalement les conditions qui peuvent expliquer les differents niveaux de capacite etatiques observes au moment de la chute du commuhisme. En particulier, je cherche a demontrer que l'Union Sovietique n'a pas utilise les memes methodes pour gouverner toutes ses colonies : d'importantes variations existent entre les colonies informelles d'Europe Centrale et de l'Est et celles d'Asie Centrale. Certaines pratiques comme 1'exploitation economiques, de larges bouleversements administratifs, combinees a un faible encadrement de la part de l'autorite coloniale, ont produit les structures etatiques les moins robustes. in Contents Acknowledgements vi List of Abbreviations and Acronyms vii 1. Introduction 1 The State and Regime Outcomes 3 The State as an Important Player in Democratization 21 The Rise of the Modern State 29 Methodology . ; 33 A Roadmap 38 2. Operationalizing and Measuring State Capacity.... 40 Differentiating Scope from Capacity 41 Measuring State Capacity 43 State Capacity Ranking and Index Construction 57 Conclusion 71 3. Connecting State Capacity and Regime Type.... 72 Cross Sectional Analyses 74 Discussion and Conclusion 98 4. Colonial Legacies and State Capacity.... 104 The Soviet Union as a Colonial Empire 106 Three Dimensions of Colonial Rule 115 How Colonialism informs State Capacity..... 757 Discussion and Conclusion 168 5. Belarus: Missed Opportunity in a Strong-Weak State 173 Starting Conditions Bequeathed to a Preferred Colony 174 Is Belarus a Strong State? 180 A Measured Transition to Authoritarianism 188 Conclusion 198 IV 6. Georgia, the Re-emergence of a Broken State ; 200 Preferential Status of a Non-Slavic Colony 201 The Case of Georgia as a Weak State 211 Neither Authoritarianism nor Democracy 216 Conclusion 225 7. Kazakhstan: A Predatory Regime in a Weak State 228 Soviet Colonialism in Kazakhstan 229 Independent Kazakhstan as a Weak State 238 Resurgence of Pre-Soviet Identities or Standard Post-Soviet Networking? 245 Conclusion • 252 8. Successful Decolonization in Hungary 254 Military Occupation and Informal Empire in Eastern Europe 255 A Post-Communist Strong State 266 Smooth Transition to Democracy : 272 Conclusion 279 9. Conclusions 282 Bibliography 295 v Acknowledgements This project could not have been completed without the sympathy and understanding of friends, colleagues and family. My advisor, Juliet Johnson, deserves the first and most important credit. Her wise and critical counsel played a vital role in the evolution of this project, much more than I could ever put in words and do justice to her dedication. I could not have asked for better and more committed guidance. This whole experience was very humbling. I am grateful to the colleagues and other generous individuals who have read parts of the manuscript, among which, Rudolph Mark, Christopher Harrison and John Goldner. In addition Stuart Soroka and Mikhail Pryadilnikov provided me with thoughtful advice despite their tight schedules. I would also like to thank T.V. Paul in whose seminar this project was born. This project benefited from generous financing from various institutions; the Max Stern Fellowship, the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, the Luneburg Regional Business Fellowship, and the Deutscher Akademischer Austausch Dienst. I am especially indebted to Professor Ferdinand Miiller-Rommel at the Center for the Study of Democracy at the Leuphana University of Luneburg. I am one of the very lucky scholars who have benefited from his generosity. Axel, thank you for your exemplary patience as I became engulfed in this project, this means the world to me. I will make it up to you when your turn comes. Maman et papa; j'en ai mis du