Sonmez, Goktug (2017) The interplay between international and domestic factors in Turkey’s grand strategy-making : activism, disappointment, and readjustment. PhD Thesis. SOAS, University of London. http://eprints.soas.ac.uk/id/eprint/24333 Copyright © and Moral Rights for this PhD Thesis are retained by the author and/or other copyright owners. A copy can be downloaded for personal non‐commercial research or study, without prior permission or charge. This PhD Thesis cannot be reproduced or quoted extensively from without first obtaining permission in writing from the copyright holder/s. The content must not be changed in any way or sold commercially in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders. When referring to this PhD Thesis, full bibliographic details including the author, title, awarding institution and date of the PhD Thesis must be given e.g. AUTHOR (year of submission) "Full PhD Thesis title", name of the School or Department, PhD PhD Thesis, pagination. The Interplay between International and Domestic Factors in Turkey’s Grand Strategy-Making: Activism, Disappointment, and Readjustment Goktug Sonmez 540054 Thesis submitted for the degree of PhD 2016 Department of Politics and International Studies SOAS, University of London ABSTRACT With the end of the Cold War, Turkey’s grand strategic behaviour gradually shifted from isolationism and reluctance to activism. This thesis primarily focuses on the peak period of this activism under the Justice and Development Party governments, covering a period from 2002 (the JDP’s first election victory) up to late 2016. This thesis explores the motivations behind Turkey’s grand strategic activism and why the JDP era witnessed its zenith. I argue that fluctuations in Turkey’s relative power position in response to the changes at the international level stand out as key factors in making sense of this shift, while domestic transformations enabled the country to pursue an activist grand strategy more effectively. The thesis positions itself against primordialist accounts—which attribute this shift to ideological and ethno-religious motivations in the form of “Islamism” or “Neo-Ottomanism”. At the same time, it also rejects strict “third image” theoretical approaches such as Waltzian realism and incorporates the domestic level into its realist analysis. Taking a neoclassical realist approach, international and domestic levels are investigated in terms of their effects on the configuration and implementation of Turkey’s new grand strategy. In order to explore and evaluate the primary catalysts behind the behaviour reflecting Turkey’s grand strategic shift, three case studies will be analysed in this thesis: the Turkish-Iranian, Turkish-Israeli and Turkish-EU relationships. These particular cases, which are more usually analysed through primordialist lenses, act as useful battlefields on which to compare the explanatory powers of primordialism and neoclassical realism (NCR). This thesis is expected to open up a significant area for future research on the concept of grand strategy, theoretical approaches to it and the explanatory power of NCR within the context of rising powers and Turkish foreign policy. In theoretical terms, the thesis not only offers a comprehensive approach to NCR itself (which is currently an amalgam of several different approaches) but also extends NCR’s empirical reach and offers a middle ground between realist analysis and culturalist readings of Turkey and its grand strategy. Acknowledgements I would like to express my special appreciation and thanks to my supervisor, Dr. Fiona Adamson and my examiners Dr. Jonathan Monten and Prof. William Hale. I would also like to thank Dr. Felix Berenskoetter for his invaluable guidance and Dr. Bhavna Dave, Prof. Jack Snyder and Prof. Laleh Khalili for the time they spent in conversations with me and their tremendous support and encouragement. I would like to thank them for encouraging my research at every level with their valuable comments, and for contributing to it—a process which occasionally required quite a bit of patience and time. My thanks go to the Ministry of National Education of the Republic of Turkey for their scholarship, only with which, reaching this point could be possible. I also want to take this opportunity to express gratitude to all faculty members of the Department of Politics and International Studies at SOAS as well as to Prof. Mustafa Kibaroğlu for the priceless and continuous support he gave me in pursuing my academic career from the very beginning. I would like to express my appreciation to Prof. Kimberley Hutchings, Prof. John Sidel and my PhD peers, as well as all of my friends who supported me in writing this thesis and encouraged me to strive towards my goal. My thanks also go to numerous experts, scholars and diplomats who, I would also like to thank the following people who offered their valuable time and helped me make this thesis a much comprehensive research effort providing me with personal interviews for this thesis: Akın Ünver, (Assistant Professor, Department of International Relations, Kadir Has University), Ali Balcı, (Assistant Professor, Faculty of Political Science at the Sakarya University), Amira Oron, (Israeli Chargé d’affaires in Ankara), Arshin Adib-Moghaddam, (Professor, Department of Politics and International Studies SOAS, University of London), Aso Mamand, (politburo member of the PUK), Bayram Sinkaya, Assistant Professor at the Department of International Relations, Yıldırım Beyazıt University), Bill Park (Senior Lecturer in the Defence Studies Department at King’s College and Visiting Lecturer at the Department of International Relations TOBB ETU University, Ankara), Cenk Pala, (Energy expert, ENERJİSA), Daniel Pipes, (President of the Middle East Forum), Daniela Huber, (Senior fellow at the Instituto Affari Internazionali in the Mediterranean and Middle East Programme), David Phinnemore, (Professor, School of Politics, International Studies and Philosophy Queen’s University, Belfast), Davut Turan, (General Coordinator at South Azerbaijan Social-Cultural Studies Center), Erdal Tanas Karagöl, (Professor and Researcher on Economics at SETA, Department of Economics, Yıldırım Beyazıt University), Gareth Winrow, (Tutor at Oxford University and independent analyst on Turkey), Heinz-Jürgen Axt, (Professor and Head of the Jean Monnet Department for European politics at the University of Duisburg, Essen), Hüseyin Bağcı, (Professor, Department of International Relations METU), Ioannais Grigoriadis, (Associate Professor, Department of Political Science and Public Administration, Bilkent University), Ireneusz Fidos (Head of Political Affairs at the European Delegation to Turkey) İlker Aytürk, (Associate Professor, Department of Political Science and Public Administration, Bilkent University), Jonathan Stern, (Director of Gas Research at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies), Michael Bishku, (Professor, Department of History Augusta University), Michael L. Haas, (Professor at the Department of Political Science, McAnulty College and Graduate School of Liberal Arts), Mustafa Kutlay, (Assistant Professor, Department of International Relations, TOBB University), Nathalie Tocci, (Deputy Director of Instituto Affari Internazionali, Editor of The International Spectator and Special Adviser to EU HRVP Federica Mogherini), Nematollah Hamid Mozaffarpour, (Head of the Turkish Policy Section at the Iranian Embassy in Ankara), Özlem Tür, (Professor and Head of the Department of International Relations, METU), Paul Kubicek, (Professor, Department of Political Science Oakland University), Pınar Arıkan, (Assistant Professor, Department of International Relations, Akdeniz University), Rizgar Ali, (politburo member of the PUK), Shoresh Haji, (spokesperson of the Gorran movement), Svante Cornell, (The Director of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program and Associate Professor at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University), Ziya Öniş, (Professor, Department of Political Science, Koç University). Most importantly, a special thanks to my family for their unceasing encouragement, support and attention in the face of numerous hardships. I can certainly say that I am blessed with a loving and supportive family. Without their support by all means as well as their prayers, producing this thesis would be impossible. Words cannot express how grateful I am for all their sacrifices. I am particularly grateful to my beloved wife who supported me wholeheartedly throughout this venture, showing great patience and helping me keep up my morale high even in the most desperate and exhausting of times. A tiny, little, cute but a significant thanks go to my 3-months son whose arrival brought not only more joy and warmth to our home, but also motivation and luck to me. My apologies go to my parents, my wife, and my son for missing numerous valuable and unrepeatable opportunities to spend more time with you. CONTENTS Chapter 1: The Phenomenon of the “New Turkey” and its Grand Strategy .......................... 1 Research Puzzle: Motivations behind Turkey’s New Grand Strategic Behaviour and Theoretical Debate .............................................................................................................. 4 Methodology .............................................................................................................................. 9 Outline of the Thesis ...............................................................................................................