Geopolitical overview of Spanish Institute of conflicts 2017 Strategic Studies MINISTERIO DE DEFENSA Geopolitical overview Spanish Institute of of conflicts 2017 Strategic Studies MINISTERIO DE DEFENSA SPANISH OFFICIAL PUBLICATIONS CATALOGUE http://publicacionesoficiales.boe.es Edita: SECRETARÍA GENERAL TÉCNICA http://publicaciones.defensa.gob.es/ © Author and Publisher, 2018 NIPO: 083-16-308-8 (print on demand) NIPO: 083-16-309-3 (e-book edition) Publication date: july 2018 The authors are solely responsible for the opinions expresed in the articles in this publication. The exploitation righits of this work are protected by the Spanish Intellectual Property Act. No parts of this publication may be produced, stored or transmitted in any way nor by any means, electronic, mechanical or print, including photo- copies or any other means without prior, express, written consent of the © copyright holders. ÍNDICE Page Chapter one Mali: Obstacles and Responses to a Complex Threat ............................................... 11 Jesús Díez Alcalde Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 13 Background ................................................................................................................................... 14 Current status of the conflict ...................................................................................................... 20 The role of external players ...................................................................................................... 26 Conclusions and outlook for the future ................................................................................... 31 Geopolitical indicators ................................................................................................................ 32 Conflict Timeline .......................................................................................................................... 33 Chapter two Ukraine: an entrenched and poisoned conflict ............................................................. 35 José Pardo de Santayana y Gómez de Olea Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 36 The agreement was extended in 2010 until 2047. ................................................................. 38 Immediate background of the conflict ...................................................................................... 39 Russian annexation of Crimea ................................................................................................... 41 The Donbass conflict .................................................................................................................... 42 Minsk Agreements ........................................................................................................................ 44 Current Situation ........................................................................................................................... 45 Role of external players .............................................................................................................. 49 Conclusions and future perspectives ...................................................................................... 50 Geopolitical indicators ................................................................................................................. 51 Cronology ........................................................................................................................................ 52 Chapter three Sinai: a time bomb about to go off? ................................................................................... 53 Emilio Sánchez de Rojas Díez Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 55 Antecedents of the Conflict ......................................................................................................... 56 From Salafism to terrorism: Al-Tawhid wal-Jihad ................................................................ 58 After the fall of Mubarak ............................................................................................................. 60 5 Page Current situation of the conflict ................................................................................................. 67 2016 ................................................................................................................................................. 67 2017 ................................................................................................................................................. 70 External Actors .............................................................................................................................. 75 Conclusions and perspectives for the future .......................................................................... 77 Chronology of the conflict and geopolitical indicators in the Sinai .................................... 78 Chapter four The Caucasus .............................................................................................................................. 81 José Luis Cabello Rodríguez Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 83 Background of the conflict .......................................................................................................... 83 Current situation of the conflict ................................................................................................. 85 The areas of the Caucasus .......................................................................................................... 85 The role of external actors .......................................................................................................... 96 Conclusions and perspective for the future ............................................................................ 100 The Caucasus. Geopolitical indicators ...................................................................................... 102 The Caucasus. Chronology of the conflict ................................................................................ 104 Chapter five Iraqi Kurdistan ........................................................................................................................... 107 Miguel Ángel Ballesteros Martín Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 108 Geopolitical analysis of Kurdistan ............................................................................................. 108 Human factor in Kurdistan .......................................................................................................... 109 Natural resources ......................................................................................................................... 112 Political Kurdistan......................................................................................................................... 114 Iranian Kurdistan .......................................................................................................................... 116 Iraqi Kurdistan ............................................................................................................................... 116 The actors in the Iraqi Kurdish conflict .................................................................................... 119 The Parliament and the Kurdish Regional Government in Iraq ......................................... 120 The Iraqi parliament in Baghdad ............................................................................................... 121 The referendum on the independence of Iraqi Kurdistan .................................................... 123 Conclusions .................................................................................................................................... 126 Iraqi Kurdistan. Geopolitical indicators .................................................................................... 128 Chronology of the conflict ........................................................................................................... 129 Chapter six Iraq after the recovery of Mosul ......................................................................................... 131 Francisco José Berenguer Hernández Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 132 Background to the conflict .......................................................................................................... 132 Current situation of the conflict ................................................................................................. 136 Role of the external actors .......................................................................................................... 144 Geopolitical indicators of Iraq .................................................................................................... 149 6 Page Chapter seven Keys to an understanding of the conflict in Yemen .................................................... 151 Ignacio Fuente Cobo