1 UNIVERSIDADE DE SÃO PAULO INSTITUTO DE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS Fernanda Mena Actors and incentives in cannabis policy change: an interdisciplinary approach to legalization processes in the United States and in Uruguay São Paulo 2020 FERNANDA MELLO MENA 2 Actors and incentives in cannabis policy change: an interdisciplinary approach to legalization processes in the United States and in Uruguay Original Version Ph.D. Thesis presented to the Graduate Program in International Relations at the International Relations Institute, Universidade de São Paulo, Brazil, to obtain the degree of Doctor in Science. Advisor: Prof. Dr. Leandro Piquet Carneiro São Paulo 2020 Autorizo a reprodução e divulgação total ou parcial deste trabalho, por qualquer meio convencional ou eletrônico, para fins de estudo e pesquisa, desde que citada a fonte. 3 Catalogação na Publicação* Instituto de Relações Internacionais da Universidade de São Paulo Mena, Fernanda Actors and incentives in cannabis policy change: an interdisciplinary approach to legalization processes in the United States and in Uruguay / Fernanda Mello Mena -- Orientador Leandro Piquet Carneiro. São Paulo: 2020. 195p. Tese (doutorado). Universidade de São Paulo. Instituto de Relações Internacionais. 1. Relações exteriores (História) – Brasil 2. Relações internacionais (História) - Brasil 3. Política externa – Brasil I. Mena, Fernanda II. Actors and incentives in cannabis policy change: an interdisciplinary approach to legalization processes in the United States and in Uruguay CDD 327.81 4 MENA, Fernanda Actors and incentives in cannabis policy change: an interdisciplinary approach to legalization processes in the United States and in Uruguay Ph. D. Thesis presented to the International Relations Institute, at the University of São Paulo, Brazil, to obtain the degree of Doctor in Science. Aprovado em: BANCA EXAMINADORA Prof. Dr. _ _ Instituição: _ _ _ Julgamento: _ _ Prof. Dr. _ _ Instituição: _ _ _ Julgamento: _ _ Prof. Dr. _ _ Instituição: _ _ _ Julgamento: _ _ 5 a Marcos, Flora e Cecília, por estarem tão próximos durante um processo em que eu deles tive de estar tão distante 6 ABSTRACT Mena, Fernanda (2020). Actors and incentives in cannabis policy change: an interdisciplinary approach to legalization processes in the United States and in Uruguay (Ph. D. Thesis). Institute of International Relations, University of São Paulo, Brazil In 2012, three different territories in the Americas –Uruguay and the states of Colorado and Washington in the United States– took the unprecedented step of legalizing and regulating adult-use cannabis markets, permitting the production, trade, and consumption of non-medical cannabis, a psychotropic substance prohibited under international treaties ratified by the governments of these territories. This paradigm shift has raised challenges to the power institutionalized by the so called international drug control regime (IDCR). Such conflict between domestic drug policy change and international drug control paradigm has been eroding the regime's integrity while undermining respect for international law. This thesis analyzes the three pioneer cannabis legalization experiments through its actors and incentives. It employs process tracing methods and historical descriptive analysis, proposing a causal model for drug policy change starting with externalities and grievances generated by national implementation of IDCR norms and rules. The study draws on John Kingdon‘s multiple streams model of policy cycle to identify a constellation of players and forces operating as impetus or constraints for the advent of new legal cannabis markets. Among them, it focuses on the role of three non-state actors: local social movements organizations, epistemic communities and transnational advocacy networks. It evidences how these actors furthered the recognition of drug-related political problems, the proposition of alternative policies and the identification of political opportunities for change. In the US, a bottom-up process led to market-friendly regulatory frameworks focused on tax revenue while the Uruguayan top-down decision-making process have resulted in model strictly controlled by the state and focused on health and prevention. Keywords: Cannabis. Drug Policy. International regime theory. Social movements. Epistemic communities. Policy cycle. 7 RESUMO Mena, Fernanda (2020). Actors and incentives in cannabis policy change: an interdisciplinary approach to legalization processes in the United States and in Uruguay (Tese de Doutorado). Instituto de Relações Internacionais, Universidade de São Paulo Em 2012, três diferentes territórios nas Américas –Uruguai e os estados norte- americanos do Colorado e de Washington– tomaram uma medida inédita: a legalização e regulação de mercados de cânabis para uso adulto, permitindo a produção, o comércio e o consumo de maconha para fins não-medicinais, uma substância psicotrópica proibida pelos tratados internacionais ratificados pelos governos destes mesmos territórios. Essa mudança de paradigma desafiou os poderes institucionalizados pelo chamado regime internacional de controle de drogas (RICD). Esse conflito entre mudanças em políticas de drogas domésticas e o paradigma internacional de controle de drogas vem deteriorando a integridade do regime ao mesmo tempo em que enfraquece o respeito pelo direito internacional. Esta tese analisa os três experimentos pioneiros de legalização da cânabis por meio de seus atores e incentivos. Ela emprega métodos de process-tracing e análise histórica descritiva para propor um modelo causal para mudanças de política de drogas deflagradas por externalidades geradas pela implementação nacional das normas e regras do RICD. O estudo se baseia no modelo de múltiplos fluxos criado por John Kingdon para identificar uma constelação de agentes e forças operando na forma de impulso ou de limitação para o advento de novos mercados legais de maconha. Entre estes agentes, o estudo focaliza o papel de três atores não-estatais: organizações locais de movimentos sociais, comunidades epistêmicas e redes transnacionais de advocacy. A tese evidencia como estes agentes promoveram o reconhecimento de problemas políticos ligados a drogas, a proposição de políticas alternativas e a identificação de oportunidades políticas para a implementação desta mudança. Nos EUA, o processo se articulou de baixo para cima (bottom-up) gerando um modelo regulatório amigável para o mercado com foco na arrecadação de impostos enquanto o processo de decisão uruguaio, articulado de cima para baixo (top-down), resultou em um modelo controlado de maneira estrita pelo Estado com foco em prevenção e saúde. Palavras-chave: Cânabis. Política de drogas. Teoria de regimes internacionais. Movimentos sociais. Comunidades epistêmicas. Ciclo de políticas públicas. 8 SUMMARY 1. INTRODUCTION 10 1.1 A brief overview of the argument 13 1.2. Challenging the international law 16 2. INTERNATIONAL DRUG CONTROL REGIME: HISTORY, INSTITUTIONS AND THEORETICAL APPROACHES 19 2.1 Drugs: from commodities to evildoers 20 2.1.1 Transnational moral entrepreneurs and US foreign policy 24 2.1.2 The Versailles Treaty as a coercive tool for adherence 29 2.1.3 US hegemony and cannabis criminalization 33 2.1.2.1 Cannabis in the US before the IDCR 36 2.2 Treaties, institutions and norms 41 2.2.1 The 1961 Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs 43 2.2.2 The 1971 Convention on Psychotropic Substances 45 2.2.3 The 1988 Convention against Illicit Traffic in Narcotic Drugs and Psychoactive Substances 50 2.3 Quasi-universal ratification: how "vice would pay homage to virtue" 54 2.3.1 The lack of a sanction system and the US unilateral certification 63 3. REGIME’S INTRUSIVENESS AND DOMESTIC IMPACT: EXTERNALITIES COLLECTIVE ACTION AND DEFECTION 69 3.1 Cost-Effectiveness 74 3.2 Epistemic communities, social movements organizations and transnational advocacy networks 82 3.2.1 Social movement organizations and drugs political problems 87 3.2.2 Cannabis legalization movements in the US and legalization and regulation of medical marijuana 94 3.2.2.1 Medical marijuana regulation in the US 99 9 3.2.2 Transnational advocacy networks and the legitimacy of drug policy debate 107 3.3 Collective action, media and public opinion 111 3.2.1 Information framing, acceptance and public support 114 3.4 Flexibility, defection and breach 121 3.4.1 Golden straightjacket or normative flexibility: the issue of interpretation 128 4. CANNABIS LEGALIZATION EXPERIMENTS: HOW POLICY WAS CHANGED? 132 4.1. Policy cycles and local cannabis laws shifts 132 4.2 Driving forces in cannabis legalization agenda-setting 136 4.3 A causal model for the advent of legal adult-use cannabis markets 141 5. CASE STUDIES 146 5.1 The United States: federal dilemma 146 5.1.1 Colorado 151 5.1.2 Washington 154 5.2 Uruguay 157 6. CONCLUSION: DOMESTIC CHOICES OVER INTERNATIONAL RULING167 7. BIBLIOGRAPHY 173 10 1. INTRODUCTION In 2012, three different territories in the Americas – Uruguay and the states of Colorado and Washington in the United States – took the unprecedented step of legalizing and regulating the adult-use cannabis market, permitting the production, trade, and consumption of non-medical cannabis, a psychotropic substance prohibited under international treaties ratified by the governments of these territories. By 2019, a further nine US states (Alaska, California, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, and Vermont), along with Washington DC, had taken the same step. In 2018, Canada has also changed its