ISSN 2637-0239 9 772637 023004 COVER ECONOMIC OUTLOOK.indd All Pages 27/10/2018 12:50 AM ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2019 T.PAGE/PREFACE NEW.indd 1 10/27/18 12:53 AM Copyright Reserved All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording and/or otherwise without the prior permission of: Undersecretary, Fiscal and Economics Division, Ministry of Finance Malaysia, Level 9, Centre Block, Kompleks Kementerian Kewangan, No. 5, Persiaran Perdana, Precint 2, Federal Government Administrative Centre, 62592 Putrajaya. Fax: 03-88823881 E-mail: [email protected] The Economic Outlook is an annual publication released on the same day as the Annual Budget. The 2019 edition is released on 2 November 2018. Sale copies are obtainable from: Percetakan Nasional Malaysia Berhad, Jalan Chan Sow Lin, 50554 Kuala Lumpur. Tel.: 03-92366888/92366894 Fax: 03-92011008/92224773 E-mail: [email protected] This publication is also available for download at: www.treasury.gov.my Cover Design by Fiscal and Economics Division PRINTED BY PERCETAKAN NASIONAL MALAYSIA BERHAD KUALA LUMPUR, 2018 www.printnasional.com.my email: [email protected] Tel.: 03-92366895 Fax: 03-92224773 ii Economic Outlook 2019 T.PAGE/PREFACE NEW.indd 2 10/27/18 12:53 AM FOREWORD PRIME MINISTER MALAYSIA Support of a majority of Malaysians that determined the success of Pakatan Harapan in the general election of 9 May 2018 is a remarkable achievement that will be part of the nation’s history. This marks the first change of a ruling party 61-years since independence. Such an achievement certainly come with a big responsibility and high expectation. This responsibility is even more challenging with the scale of wrongdoings of the past kleptocratic Government that needs to be addressed immediately. Nevertheless, the new Government does not see this as a burden but accepts it as responsibility that is entrusted upon. Towards this end, the Government will adopt changes in policies, strategies and way of implementation to fulfil the people’s expectations and to rebuild and restore the nation’s glory. The Government is confident of its ability to transform the country towards a New Malaysia based on principles of justice, good governance, integrity and the rule of law. In attaining a developed and inclusive nation status, the Government has implemented various reforms to enhance economic growth and the wellbeing of the people. In this regard, the Government through the Ministry of Finance is promoting efforts to create an entrepreneurial state and promote cooperation among the 4Ps, namely, People, Professionals, Private and Public to spearhead various national development initiatives. Furthermore, to enhance prudent fiscal management, the Ministry of Finance will accelerate zero-based budgeting system, rationalise assistance programmes, improve procurement processes and broaden the revenue base. Meanwhile, Malaysia aspires to re-position its status internationally through active participation in the global community. Towards this end, Malaysia will continue to strengthen trade ties with major and potential trading partners through a conducive and business -friendly environment in line with the principles of Zone of Peace, Freedom and Neutrality (ZOPFAN). By upholding the principle of prosper-thy-neighbour, Malaysia will continue to emphasise on strengthening cooperation with ASEAN members as well as other regional trade blocs. In addition, greater focus will be given to strengthening bilateral ties with China and Japan in line with the Look East Policy. Economic Outlook 2019 iii T.PAGE/PREFACE NEW.indd 3 10/27/18 12:53 AM In achieving the objectives outlined in Vision 2020, the Government will ensure the Malaysian economy continues to be on a sustainable growth trajectory by providing a conducive and favourable environment to attract investors and businesses. Hence, the industries should leverage these opportunities by embracing advanced technology to enhance productivity and competitiveness. The Government also recognises the importance of the role of the young generation in driving future growth. In tandem with Industrial Revolution 4.0, efforts will be undertaken to equip this generation to become a highly- and digitally-skilled workforce. We believe this is the responsibility entrusted upon us. The Government is confident, with cooperation and support of the people, this responsibility will be carried out successfully to attain hopes of building a New Malaysia with dignity and integrity. Thank You. DR MAHATHIR BIN MOHAMAD 2 November 2018 iv Economic Outlook 2019 T.PAGE/PREFACE NEW.indd 4 10/27/18 12:53 AM PREFACE MINISTER OF FINANCE MALAYSIA A Revered Malaysia, A Dynamic Economy, A Prosperous Society On 9 May 2018, the Pakatan Harapan coalition made history by winning the 14th General Election and forming the new Government. The new administration is focused on raising the economic wellbeing of the people, restoring fi scal health and implementing various institutional reforms to improve accountability and transparency. Such structural changes will ensure sustainable growth, the stability of the capital market and the monetary sector, and will also transform Malaysia from a global kleptocracy into a rules-based democracy. The objective of enhancing the people’s economic wellbeing would only be meaningful if their purchasing power can be increased and their living costs contained. One major people-centric initiative to achieve that goal was the zero-rating of Goods and Services Tax (GST) from June to August 2018. The GST was later abolished on 1 September 2018 and it has since been replaced with the less burdensome Sales Tax and Service Tax (SST). While the Federal Government’s revenue will be reduced by RM17 billion in 2018 as a result, it has helped to lessen the tax burden, reduce price rises and give the money back to the people. Following the zerorisation of GST, the infl ation rate dropped for three consecutive months and hit 0.2% year-on-year by August 2018, among the lowest monthly rates since 2009. This has spurred private consumption growth. To optimise public expenditure and resources, the Government has restructured all of its ministries and agencies. Furthermore, the Government will run on the principle of Competency, Accountability and Transparency (CAT) to safeguard national interests and future-proof the public sector from abuses and corruption. These initiatives, together with various institutional reforms like the separation of roles between the Prime Minister and Finance Minister, will restore public confi dence in the Government. At the global stage, despite headwinds due to trade wars, volatile commodity prices, fi nancial market uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, the IMF forecasts global GDP growth to expand by 3.7% in 2018 and 2019. Amid the trade wars, Malaysia should position ourselves as a safe haven for foreign companies in line with ASEAN as a Zone of Peace, Freedom and Neutrality (ZOPFAN). The Malaysian economy is projected to grow by 4.9% next year, with services and manufacturing driving the expansion. This is an acceleration from the anticipated 4.8% growth in 2018. The expansion of the services sector will be supported by rising demand Economic Outlook 2019 v T.PAGE/PREFACE NEW.indd 5 10/27/18 12:53 AM in the wholesale & retail trade; finance & insurance; information & communication; as well as food & beverages and accommodation subsectors. Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector will be driven by export-oriented industries, particularly with the rising global demand for E&E products. Agriculture and mining sectoral growth will improve after a weak 2018 due to supply shocks and inclement weather, while the construction sector will grow at a moderate pace. On the demand side, private sector expenditure will remain as the key driver of growth following record high consumer and business sentiments. Private consumption expansion will take place on the back of stable employment and wage growth, while private investment growth will be supported by a conducive business environment. Public sector expenditure will be optimised without affecting public service delivery. Despite heightening trade tensions, the external sector is expected to expand, albeit at a slower pace. The Government recognises that as a small and open economy, Malaysia would benefit immensely from greater global integration. Malaysia will continue to adopt an open trade and investment regime to promote high-quality economic growth, attract strategic investment, create skilled jobs and embrace Industrial Revolution 4.0. Malaysia would pursue greater trade integration with ASEAN and other groupings as a way to diversify our trading partners and explore new markets. The Government will also pursue sustainable development goals by accelerating the adoption of green technology while protecting and conserving natural resources for the benefit of future generations. In pursuing sustainable growth that can help Malaysia escape the middle-income trap, the private sector must play a leading role. The Government seeks to forge an entrepreneurial state through a 4P Partnership involving the public sector, the private sector, professionals and people. While the Government will continue to invest in education and public infrastructure, the private sector must spearhead and operate various 4P Partnership initiatives. For Malaysia to wake up from its slumber and