DISSERTATION THE SYSTEMS ENGINEERING CASUALTY ANALYSIS SIMULATION (SE-CAS) Submitted by Andron Kirk Creary Department of Systems Engineering In partial fulfilment of the requirements For the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Colorado State University Fort Collins, Colorado Spring 2019 Doctoral Committee: Advisor: Ron Sega Brad Reisfeld Peter Young Thomas Bradley Copyright by Andron Kirk Creary 2019 All Rights Reserved ABSTRACT THE SYSTEMS ENGINEERING CASUALTY ANALYSIS SIMULATION (SE-CAS) In this dissertation, we illustrate the use of the systems engineering casualty analysis simulation (SE-CAS). SE-CAS, inspired by the Army’s need to detect, identify and operate in areas contaminated by Chemical Warfare Agent (CWA), is a framework for creating chemical warfare simulations. As opposed to existing simulations which emulate simple cause-and-effect relationships, SE-CAS is developed using a systems thinking approach to dynamically represent interconnected elements during weaponized release of CWA. Through use of monte-carlo simulation methods, integrated dynamic analytic models, and NASA WorldWind® global display, SE-CAS provides the capability to visualize areas of chemical warfare agent dispersion, symptomology and exposure effects, and prescription of optimal survival factors within a common constructive environment. Supported by Colorado State University’s Walter Scott Jr. School of Engineering and industry affiliates, SE-CAS is part of a larger research & development effort to expand industry modeling, simulation and analysis capabilities within Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear and Explosives (CBRN-E) discipline. SE-CAS is an open, parameterized simulation allowing the user to set initial conditions, simulation mode, parameters, and randomized inputs through a scenario editor. Inputs are passed through the simulation components and service layers. This includes: processor logic, ii simulation management, visualization and observer services. Data output is handled within the simulation display, as well as in text format for easy back-end analysis. The contributions of this dissertation: advanced the state of the systems engineering practice in modeling, simulation and analysis of chemical warfare agents during simulated military operations, created a robust systems engineering framework for creating chemical warfare simulations that is modular and customizable, developed a practical software solution to fill gaps in CBRN-E M&S tool offerings, integration of newly created dynamic models compatible with CBRN-E platforms, and formulated a roadmap for the application of Live, Virtual and Constructive training and operational planning for joint warfare integrated systems assessments. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS “Don’t let someone else’s opinion of you become your reality.” Les Brown A snot-nosed immigrant with majestic imagination overlooked and overshadowed told time and again, “you’re not supposed to be here.” This was my reality. I am forever indebted to those who contributed immensely to the culmination of this body of work, and others providing support and reassurance, which helped me weather the storm. To my mother, Peturia, for instilling values and a moral compass that has helped me become a productive member of society, and for teaching me how to use my individual gifts to further contribute to the advancement of our culture and people. For my grandmother, Hyacinth, for long standing support to her daughter, allowing her an opportunity to make better of her circumstances as a young single mother. The ideas presented here exist as a result of the trailblazing vision and persistence of my advisor, Dr. Ron Sega. Unconditional intellectual support provided by Dr. Peter Young, Dr. Thomas Bradley, and Dr. Brad Reisfeld. I am grateful for the support from colleagues who have helped take my vision, from its most fundamental state, into the simulation framework it is today. Specifically, Mashfique Hassan from Northrop Grumman Mission Systems who served as a catalyst for the acceptance of SE-CAS amongst practitioners. This research has also received visibility, notoriety, and acceptance from: The Military Operations Research Society (MORS), Casualty Estimation and Force Health Protection Working Group 15, and iv Northrop Grumman Mission Systems. Special thanks to Dulce Castro for thoroughly reviewing this manuscript, and those listed in Appendix L for additional levels of support. v DEDICATION This dissertation is dedicated to my mother and grandmother, Peturia and Hyacinth. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ...................................................................................................................... ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................... iv DEDICATION .................................................................................................................. vi LIST OF TABLES ........................................................................................................... xii LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................ xiii LIST OF SYMBOLS ...................................................................................................... xvi Chapter 1. Introduction .. ...................................................................................................1 1.1 Motivation for a Systems Engineering Casualty Analysis Simulation .. .....................1 Chapter 2. Objective and Research Questions .. ..............................................................4 2.1 Research Question 1 ..................................................................................................... 4 2.2 Research Question 2 ..................................................................................................... 4 Chapter 3. Application of Systems Engineering (SE) ...................................................... 6 3.1 What is Systems Engineering? ..................................................................................... 6 3.1.1 What is the Value of Systems Engineering? ............................................................ 7 3.2 Application of Systems Engineering in the Defense Industry .................................... 8 3.2.1 Systems Engineering Lifecycle Model .. ...................................................................11 3.2.2 Systems Engineering Technical and Management Processes ............................ 11 3.2.2.1 Mission & Requirements Definition .. .....................................................................16 3.2.2.2 Modeling, Simulation & Analysis .. .........................................................................17 3.2.2.3 Architectural Design & Synthesis ......................................................................... 20 3.2.2.4 Development & Implementation ........................................................................... 22 3.2.2.5 System Integration ................................................................................................. 24 3.2.2.6 Verification & Validation ........................................................................................ 25 3.2.2.7 Operations, Maintenance & Sustainment ............................................................ 27 3.2.3 SE in Modeling, Simulation, Analysis & Experimentation ..................................... 29 vii 3.2.3.1 Hierarchy of Simulations ....................................................................................... 31 3.2.3.2 Hierarchy of Analytical Models ............................................................................. 33 3.2.3.3 Modeling, Simulation, Analysis & Experimentation Process ............................. 36 3.2.3.3.1 MSA&E Process: Phase 0 – Capability Identification ..................................... 38 3.2.3.3.2 MSA&E Process: Phase 1 – Problem Formulation ......................................... 39 3.2.3.3.3 MSA&E Process: Phase 2 – Design................................................................. 42 3.2.3.3.4 MSA&E Process: Phase 3 – Development ...................................................... 45 3.2.3.3.5 MSA&E Process: Phase 4 – Experiment Execution ....................................... 48 3.2.3.4 Requirements of MSA&E Experiment Execution ............................................... 50 3.2.3.4.1 Cause-and-Effect Relationship in Experiment Execution ............................... 51 3.2.3.4.2 Validity in MSA&E Experiment Execution ........................................................ 52 3.2.4 Data Collection & Analysis ....................................................................................... 55 3.2.4.1 Metrics: Hard versus Soft: Answers versus Insights .......................................... 56 Chapter 4. Chemical Warfare: Weapons of Mass Destruction ...................................... 59 4.1 Chemical Weapons: Technology in the Modern Era ................................................ 62 4.1.1 CBRN-E: U.S Army’s Evolving Need ...................................................................... 67 4.1.2 Chemical Warfare Agents: Chemical, Physical & Biological Properties .............. 80 4.1.3 Chemical Warfare Agents: Sulfur Mustard (HD) .................................................... 82 4.1.3.1 Sulfur Mustard (HD): Injury Progression ............................................................. 84 Chapter 5. Systems Engineering Casualty Analysis Simulation (SE-CAS)