THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036-2188 Tel: 202-797-6000 Fax: 202-797-6004 www.brooking s.edu Iraq Index Tracking Variables of Reconstruction & Security in Post-Saddam Iraq www.brookings.edu/iraqindex Updated December 15, 2004 Michael E. O’Hanlon Adriana Lins de Albuquerque For more information please contact Adriana Lins de Albuquerque at [email protected] TABLE OF CONTENTS Security Indicators Page U.S. Troop Fatalities since May 1, 2003…….…………………………………………..………………………………………………...3 Most Frequent Causes of U.S. Military Fatalities in Iraq since May 1, 2004…………………………………………...............……….3 Locations of Frequent U.S. Military Fatalities Since May 1, 2003………………………………………….…………………………….4 U.S. Troops Wounded in Action since May 1, 2003……………………………..……………………………...…………………...……..4 British Troop Fatalities since May 2003………………………………….……………….…………………..............................................5 Non-U.S. & U.K. Coalition Troop Fatalities since May 1, 2003…….………………………………………………….…………….....5 Non-U.S. & U.K. Coalition Troop Fatalities by Country since May 1, 2003…….………………………………………….....6 Iraqi Police Killed………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….6 Iraqi Interpreters Working for Coalition Forces Killed…………………………………………………………………………………6 Estimates of Iraqi Civilians Killed Since the Start of the War …………………………………………………………….……………7 Iraqi Civilian Killed as a Result of Acts of War since May 2003…………………………………………….…………………………...7 Mass Casualty Bombings in Iraq…………..…………………………………..……………..……………………………...…..………..8 Crime-Related Deaths in Baghdad ………….………………………………………………………………………...……………………9 Total Iraqi Civilians Killed as a Result of Violence from War and Violence from Crime………………………….………….....…..10 Non-Iraqi Civilian Casualties since May 2003…………………..……………………………..................................................................10 Countries with More than 10 Civilians Killed in Iraq since May 2003………………………………………………………………10 Foreign Nationals Kidnapped in Iraq Since May 2003……………………………………………………………………………….….11 Total Number of Insurgents Detained or Killed …………..……………...…….……………………………………..............................11 Iraqi Prison Population……………………………………………………………………………………………….……………………12 Estimated Strength of Iraqi Resistance Nationwide…………………....……………………………………………………………....12 Estimated Number of ForeignFighters………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………12 Coalition Troop Strength in Iraq ………….……………………………………………………………………………………………13 U.S. Troops Engaged in Operation Iraqi Freedom Stationed in the Vicinities of Iraq and at Sea………………………………….13 Top Ten Non-U.S. Coalition Contributors of Military Personnel in Iraq……………………………………………..…………...…..14 “High-Value” Intelligence Reports………………………………………………………………………………….………………….14 Insurgent Attacks on Coalition Forces…………………………………………………………………………………………………..14 American Military Helicopters Downed by Enemy Fire ………………………………………………………………………………...15 Attacks on Iraqi Oil and Gas Pipelines, Installations, & Personnel ………….…………………...…....................................................15 Baathist Leaders Still at Large ………………...………………………………………………….............................................................16 Size of Iraqi Security Forces on Duty ………..…………………………………………………………………………………………..17 Iraqi Police Equipment……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………18 Border Patrol Equipment……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….……………18 Economic & Quality of Life Indicators Iraqi National Debt: Creditors…………………………………………………………………….............................................................19 Pledges Made at the International Donor’s Conference for Iraq in Madrid….………………………………………….…………….20 World Bank estimate of Iraq Reconstruction Needs……………………………………………………………………………….......21 CPA-Estimated Needs for Iraq Reconstruction in Sectors not Covered by the UN/World Bank Assessment..21 Total Funds Available, Obligated, and Disbursed for Iraq Reconstruction, as of April, 2004……………….…………………….....21 Project Allocations and Disbursement by Category, as of May, 2004…………………………………………………………....…...22 USAID Contracts…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………....……22 Fuel……………………………..………………………………………………………………………………………………………….23 Oil Revenue…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….....23 Electricity……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….………………….24 Value of the New Iraqi Dinar………………………………………………………………………………………….…..............……..24 Commercial Aircraft Departments…………………………………………….…..…………………………………………….......……25 Irrigation…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..25 Telecommunications……………………………………………………………………………………………………...........................25 Local Governance Councils…………………………………………………………………………………….……............................26 Hospitals Restored to Pre-War Level of Operations…………………………………………………………………………………...26 Hepatitis Outbreaks………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..26 Acute Malnutrition Rate Among Children Under 5……………………………………………………………………………………26 Nationwide Unemployment Rate………………………………………………………………………………………………………...27 Polling 24 September – 4 October, 2004: International Republican Institute……….………………………………………………….………………………....28 10 August-20 August, 2004: International Republican Institute Poll…………………………………………………………………...32 24 July-2 August , 2004: International Republican Institute Poll……………………………………………………………………32 End of June, 2004: Iraq Center for Research and Strategic Studies Poll…………………………………………………………….33 9-19 June, 2004: Coalition Provisional Authority Poll…………………………………………………………………………............33 14-23 May, 2004: Coalition Provisional Authority Poll……………………………………………………………………………….....34 22 March-9 April, 2004: CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll, Nationwide Poll of Iraq………………………………….………………......40 24 March – 2 April, 2004: Coalition Provisional Authority Poll……………………..……………………………….……………....…41 9-28 February, 2004: Oxford Research International Study of Iraqi Public Opinion……………………………….…………….…..41 31 December –7 January, 2004: State Department Study of Iraqi Public Opinion……………………………………………………42 Later Polling: State Department Study &Gallup Poll………………………………………………………………………...………….44 2 SECURITY INDICATORS 1 U.S. TROOPS FATALITIES SINCE MAY 1, 2003 160 140 137 131 126 120 122 100 Fatalities (all kinds) 82 80 Fatalities in hostile incidents 76 74 Fatalities in non-hostile incidents 70 66 68 63 60 59 58 55 55 51 46 46 48 44 43 43 40 40 41 42 37 36 33 33 35 29 30 30 27 25 22 21 20 18 19 18 18 14 15 15 12 12 11 12 12 13 11 11 8 9 9 8 8 5 5 5 0 0 y y t y il t r r a ne l er r ch e er e u Ju us ber b pr July us b M J mber o m ar A May June g mb ob m ug e ct M e ct A O ve January Au O ept o Februa ept S N December S NovemberDece Total through December 14, 2004: Fatalities (all kinds): 1,156 Fatalities in hostile incidents: 907 Fatalities in non-hostile incidents: 249 MOST FREQUENT CAUSES OF U.S. MILITARY FATALITIES IN IRAQ SINCE MAY 1, 20032 30% 28% 28% 25% 22% 20% 15% 10% 9% 5% 5% 4% 4% 0% Hostile fire Improvised Vehicle accident - Rocket Propelled Mortar attack Car bomb Other explosive device non hostile Grenade (RPG) (IED) Through December 5, 2004 NOTE ON U.S. TROOP FATALITIES SINCE MAY TABLE: The daily Department of Defense casualty reports that we use for our monthly estimates on U.S troops killed doesn't make entirely clear when in a 24 hour period casualties were incurred. Since the reports are published 10AM daily, there is the possibility our numbers for each month are slightly off due to uncertainties about when casualties occurred on the first and last of each month. We have chosen to interpret the numbers in the casualty report as representing fatalities that occurred throughout the previous day. NOTE ON U.S. TROOP FATALITIES SINCE MAY TABLE: At least 170 of the 923 American military killed as of October 6., 2004 were in the reserve component (National Guard and Army, Marine, Navy, and Air force reserves.) NOTE ON U.S. TROOP FATALITIES SINCE MAY TABLE: From the start of the war on March 19 until the end of major combat operations on April 30, 2003, Operation Iraqi Freedom caused 138 American troop fatalities. Of those, 109 were the result of hostile action, and 29 the result of non-hostile action. 65 U.S. troops were killed in March 2003. There were a total of 73 American fatalities in April 2003, 22 of which were killed after April 9. Of those 22, 10 were the result of hostile action and 12 the result of non-hostile action. 3 3 LOCATIONS OF FREQUENT U.S. MILITARY FATALITIES SINCE MAY 1, 2003 300 250 240 200 150 126 112 100 67 60 50 38 34 28 19 0 0 Baghdad Greater al- Falluja Mosul Ramadi Balad Samarra Baquba Tikrit Anbar province Through December 5, 2004: 741 4 U.S. TROOPS WOUNDED IN ACTION SINCE MAY, 2003 1400 1,304 1200 1000 1,014 911 824 800 691 641 600 614 512 400 413 337 291 292 247 261 226 200 181 191 147 151 54 0 e r y y e y t ay er r a n er July b a u Jul us M Jun April M J g mb March u ctober ember e August tember ebruary A v c p October Janu F O Se Novem Decembe September No De Total through December 14, 2004: 9,302 NOTE ON U.S TROOPS WOUNDED IN ACTION SINCE MAY 1, 2003 TABLE: 541 American troops were wounded in action between March 19 and April 30, 2003. 4 BRITISH TROOP FATALITI 7 6 5 6 4 ES SINCE MAY, 2003 4 3 5 2 1 5 0 5 May 1 2 Total through JunDecembere 14 NON-U.S. & U.K. COALITIONJuly TROOP FATALITIES SINCE MAY, 2003 August 30 11 September 25 October November December 0 20 : 41 1 Jan-04 4 15 February March 000 10 April 3 11 4 27 May 5 June 2 July 0 August May-03 000 September Total through D October June November NOTE ON BRITISH TROOP FATALITIESJuly