GREATER ESSEX GROWTH AND INFRASTRUCTURE FRAMEWORK 2016-2036 February 2017 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Greater Essex is a place of opportunity. Currently home to KEY FINDINGS FROM THE GIF INFRASTRUCTURE ASSESSMENT 1.8 million people, with a further 300,000 forecast to live in the area within 20 years. The following key findings have been established: The study has examined a comprehensive scope of infrastructure topics and has highlighted a number of key Expected growth on such a substantial scale is testament Greater Essex authorities are required to accommodate infrastructure issues facing Greater Essex including: to the economic strength and quality of life offered housing and economic growth over the 20 year period by the towns and villages within Greater Essex. But to 2036 delivering on average 8,980 dwellings per Growth in Greater Essex over recent decades has to be successful, growth requires infrastructure, and annum, or 179,660 dwellings over the 20 year period. created a deficit in existing infrastructure. infrastructure needs investment. This compares to average annual completions of 4,630 dwellings per year across Essex from 2004 to 2015. In particular the growth in journeys by road and rail has To better understand the scale of the infrastructure not been matched by sufficient government investment challenge, all of the local authorities in Essex ONS Population projections forecast a population to enhance the network. The framework has identified commissioned AECOM to prepare a Growth and increase of 298,700 people (an increase of 17%). that major transport projects need to secure £26.5 Infrastructure Framework (GIF) for the county and two billion (regional) and £5.5 billion (cross-boundary) 79,000 additional jobs are forecast by the East of unitary authorities. The framework presents an overview funding. These projects currently have a funding gap England Forecasting model (2016 run), an increase of of growth patterns to 2036, evidences the infrastructure of around £11 billion. 10%. required, and estimates likely costs and funding gaps. Infrastructure capacity within Greater Essex will Local authorities across Greater Essex have identified This report presents an overview of growth patterns and also be affected by housing and economic growth housing supply trajectories for approximately 137,660 the infrastructure projects needed to support such growth, in neighbouring areas. In particular the influence homes between 2016 and 2036. their costs, how much funding has already been secured and reach of the London City Region, and the over- heating Cambridge economy will impact in different or is expected toward their delivery and the funding Delivering the necessary infrastructure to support ways on localities within Essex. The emergence of gap for the period up to 2036. The framework has been that growth from now to 2036 is estimated to cost at the new London Plan is expected to displace housing produced by AECOM based upon an analysis of available least £10.4 billion in 2016 terms. This represents an and employment from London along strategic growth evidence provided by local authorities throughout Essex estimate of capital delivery costs only and does not corridors into Essex. Equally, major developments and augmented by a desk based assessment of additional include the additional annual revenue requirements and planned outside Essex but within the region including published information. The framework was then verified maintenance costs. through further engagement with all the Essex local the Gilston area north of Harlow, Ebbsfleet Garden City authorities and with other infrastructure providers. The study has reviewed the potential costs of delivery Kent, Northstowe New Town and the expansion of new alongside currently identified secured funding, potential Garden Settlements surrounding Cambridge will all have It provides a “snap-shot” reflecting the position in October funding from public, private and developer contributions an impact. 2016. It is not intended to supersede or replace local highlighting a remaining funding gap estimate of over Infrastructure planning in Greater Essex must take studies, some of which use different metrics that may £4.4 billion at 2016 prices. better reflect local circumstances. Findings are based on into consideration the demands and capacities of common funding and cost assumptions and modelling infrastructure across the region as a whole, including work that may differ from those used in individual local for example major development in East Herts and in the infrastructure delivery plans and documents. Thames Gateway. Major infrastructure investment is 2 | Greater Essex Growth and Infrastructure Framework Contains Ordnance Survey data Crown copyright and database right © 2016. Legend Essex County Unitary Authority LA Boundary Surrounding County )" )" Waterbody Z" Airport )" )")" ") ! Port ") Motorway ") ")!"))" A Road Braintree ") )"! B Road Railway ")") ! Uttlesford )" Railway Station Employment Site Floorspace (sqm) )" )" )" ") ") ") )" )"")") )" ") Tendring No Data )" ") )" )" )" < 2,500 Z"")") )" )" )" ") 2,501 - 10,000 ") ") )" ") 10,001 - 25,000 ") ") Colchester )" 25,001 - 50,000 )" )" 50,001 - 150,000 ") )" > 150,000 )" ") )" Housing Site Capacity ") )"") 10 - 50 Harlow )" 51 - 100 ") "))" 101 - 250 ") "))" 251 - 499 Maldon 500 - 999 Epping Forest Chelmsford 1000 - 1999 ") > 2000 Brentwood ") ") ")") Total Housing Capacity by Ward ") ") )" 0 Basildon ") )")" Rochford 1 - 100 )" ") 101 - 250 ") )"") ") ") )"") )" ")") ")"))" ") "))"" 251 - 499 )" ") ") ") Z"))" )" ") 500 - 999 )" 1000 - 1999 ") > 2000 ")" Southend-on-Sea ) Castle Point Thurrock ! Z" ! ² 0 3 6 12 FIGURE A - STUDY AREA AND MAJOR HOUSING/EMPLOYMENT SITES Kilometers Proposed* This is based Growth on the most up to date information at the time of publication (October 2016) and could be subject to change, subject to the local plan work Source: Local Authority data Essex Growth and Infrastructure Framework Greater Essex Growth and Infrastructure Framework | 3 proposed on the regional strategic road network (M25, population demographics. This will require a different INFRASTRUCTURE FUNDING M11, A12, A14 in Cambridgeshire and the third Thames approach to facilitate co-location of public services Crossing) and rail network which will have direct impacts and other community facilities. At the time of drafting Existing funding will not deliver the scale of on the sub regional and local network. The long term the Growth and Infrastructure Framework the local infrastructure investment identified in this framework. uncertainty of some of these major infrastructure health economies have been developing Sustainable Developer contributions (whether s106, s278 or CIL), projects, including the third Thames Crossing, makes it Transformation Plans (STP) collaboratively with key local authority capital programmes or current public difficult to plan effectively to support that infrastructure stakeholders through the Clinical Commissioning sector funds and grants will fall short. and accommodate growth. For example the additional Groups. The STP’s will be the key documentation guiding All local authorities in Essex need to work together to Thames Crossing and uncertainty about its route makes strategic planning and change to the healthcare system. devise an integrated package of funding sources and spatial planning particularly difficult in the South of delivery mechanisms that meet the needs of different Essex. Greater Essex is shown to have a diverse, high quality landscape with numerous natural assets. Impacts areas and types of infrastructure. Section 6 of this Education demand will expand considerably over from planned housing and economic growth will need framework document presents a summary of potential the next twenty years driven by the scale of housing to be mitigated through the provision of new strategic options and the benefits and limitations of each. growth planned. A number of new secondary schools sites and also by enhance the quality of existing sites, The challenge will need to be met in part through will need to be built, in addition to those required by improving access and wider landscape management approaches that achieve the demands of residents and population growth and policy changes. The limitations practices. Options for infrastructure provision and businesses through innovative services that require of the Community Infrastructure Levy (CIL) make it delivery may be limited by environmental constraints. less capital investment. This change has already begun impossible to secure sufficient funding from developers, Essex is within an area of acute water stress and across many sectors, through integrated services, particularly to cover the full cost of building new development costs may be considerably higher where technological advances and redirecting service demand, secondary schools. Consequently, for the strategic habitats/species are water dependent. for example to more cost effective solutions such as development sites, the Education Authorities look for a community healthcare and outpatient services to relieve zero CIL rating to ensure the correct level of developer Any future decision to proceed with the potential nuclear pressure on acute hospitals. funding is capable of being secured. This particularly power station, Bradwell B in the Maldon District, would have a significant impact on infrastructure needs locally applies to the strategic development sites and new Given the funding