AN ANALYSIS OF REAL ESTATE TRANSACTIONS AND SOCIOECONOMIC VARIABLES ON AGRICULTURAL LANDS IN POLK COUNTY, FLORIDA By EDWARD DRANNBAUER A DISSERTATION PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA 2010 1 © 2010 Edward Drannbauer 2 To my fiancée, Carissa 3 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Over the course of my program and this work, I have been fortunate to receive guidance from a multitude of people. I would like to thank my committee chair Dr. Carol Lehtola for her encouragement and support through my doctorial studies. I would also like to thank Dr. Grant Thrall for introducing me to the fascinating field of Business Geography. Dr. Wendal Porter has provided me with much practical and sound advice throughout my program. Stanley Latimer has been invaluable in his help and assistance with GPS and GIS applications. I would also like to thank Dr. WonSuk “Daniel” Lee for his time and support. I would also like to thank my fellow grad students, Bill Todd, Dr. Brian Peddie, and Jodi Modica for their wonderful support and friendship over the years. Last but not least, I would like to thank my lovely fiancée, Carissa, whose understanding and support has helped make completing this work possible. 4 TABLE OF CONTENTS page ACKNOWLEDGMENTS .................................................................................................. 4 LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................ 7 LIST OF FIGURES .......................................................................................................... 8 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ........................................................................................... 10 ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................... 11 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 13 Overview ................................................................................................................. 13 Objectives ............................................................................................................... 18 2 LITERATURE REVIEW .......................................................................................... 20 Florida History from a Land Use/Land Development Prospective ........................... 20 Early History ..................................................................................................... 20 The British and Second Spanish Periods ......................................................... 22 Florida in the United States .............................................................................. 22 Post-Civil War Development ............................................................................. 24 Railroads and Florida Land Development ........................................................ 25 Florida’s 1920s Land Boom and Bust ............................................................... 26 Florida in World War II ...................................................................................... 28 Post World War II Florida ................................................................................. 29 Florida from 1950 to 1970 ................................................................................ 31 The 1980s and the Savings and Loan Crisis .................................................... 32 Recovery and Stabilization in the 1990s .......................................................... 33 The 2000 to 2010 Boom and Bust ................................................................... 34 Theories of Agricultural Land Use Change ............................................................. 35 Von Thünen and David Ricardo ....................................................................... 37 Sinclair.............................................................................................................. 37 Bryant ............................................................................................................... 38 Bowler and Ilbery .............................................................................................. 38 Johnston and Bryant ........................................................................................ 38 Hart .................................................................................................................. 39 Bryant and Johnston ........................................................................................ 39 Beauchesne and Bryant ................................................................................... 40 Agriculture at the Rural Urban Interface.................................................................. 41 Defining the Rural Urban Interface ................................................................... 41 Locating the Rural-Urban Interface .................................................................. 42 5 3 METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................... 50 Data Preparation ..................................................................................................... 52 Construction of Dependent and Independent Variables ......................................... 53 The Dependent Variable................................................................................... 53 Independent Variables ..................................................................................... 55 Logistic Regression ................................................................................................ 59 4 RESULTS ............................................................................................................... 69 Descriptive Statistics ............................................................................................... 69 Model Formulation .................................................................................................. 71 5 SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FUTURE RESEARCH .................. 95 Summary ................................................................................................................ 95 Recommendations for Future Research ................................................................. 96 FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF REVENUE CODES ....................................................... 98 LIST OF REFERENCES ............................................................................................. 100 BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH .......................................................................................... 106 6 LIST OF TABLES Table page 2-1 Urban Influence Codes (USDA ERS 2003) ........................................................ 45 3-1 List of variables. .................................................................................................. 61 4-1 Results of regression variables. .......................................................................... 74 4-2 Model Predicted versus Observed. ..................................................................... 75 4-3 Descriptive Statistics for Socio-Economic Variables in Non-Agricultural PLSS Grids ................................................................................................................... 91 4-4 Descriptive Statistics for Socio-Economic Variables in Agricultural PLSS Grids ................................................................................................................... 92 7 LIST OF FIGURES Figure page 1-1 Sign posted on farm that borders a housing development. (Photo by author.) ... 19 2-1 Rural-Urban Interface Counties (Clark 2008) ..................................................... 46 2-2 Farm Numbers in Florida 1910 – 2008 (USDA NASS 2009) .............................. 47 2-3 Number of Farms in Acres in Florida 1950 – 2008 (USDA NASS 2009) ............ 48 2-4 Average Farm Size in Acres in Florida 1993 – 2008. (USDA NASS 2009) ........ 49 3-1 Study Area .......................................................................................................... 62 3-2 Polk County PLSS Sections (Polk County Property Appraiser) .......................... 63 3-3 PLSS grids used for analysis. ............................................................................. 64 3-4 Agricultural Lands in Polk County (Polk County Property Appraiser 2009) ........ 65 3-5 Agriculturally Dominant PLSS Grids. .................................................................. 66 3-6 Polk County parcels with total transactions. ....................................................... 67 3-7 Shapefile of census blocks. (US Census 2008) .................................................. 68 4-1 Average Transactions by PLSS grid. .................................................................. 76 4-2 Total Transactions by PLSS grid. ....................................................................... 77 4-3 Population by PLSS grid. .................................................................................... 78 4-4 Median Age by PLSS grid. ................................................................................. 79 4-5 Male Median Age by PLSS grid. ......................................................................... 80 4-6 Female Median Age by PLSS grid. ....................................................................