The Logic of Drug-Related Violence A Case Study of Mexico from 2006 to 2011 a Parte. Edición Especial, Edición No.18. 24, p. a Parte. Photo of Luis Gutiérrez / Procesofoto; in Proceso (2009): El México Narco. (2009): México El Photo / of Procesofoto; in LuisProceso Gutiérrez Primer Miriam Eberle The Logic of Drug-Related Violence A Case Study of Mexico from 2006 to 2011 Miriam Eberle Student number: 3056082 [email protected] Nijmegen school of management Centre for International Conflict Analysis and Management (CICAM) Human Geography Master Specialization: Conflicts, Territories and Identities‖ Supervisor: Dr. Gearoid Millar Second reader: Dr. Mathijs van Leeuwen November 15, 2011 Table of content ii Table of content Table of content ......................................................................................................................... iii Acknowledgement ..................................................................................................................... vi Dedication ................................................................................................................................ vii Abstract ................................................................................................................................... viii List of abbreviations ................................................................................................................... x List of tables and figures .......................................................................................................... xii Terminology ............................................................................................................................ xiii 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Scope conditions .......................................................................................................... 3 1.2 Research Question ....................................................................................................... 5 1.3 Scientific & Social/Societal Relevance ....................................................................... 6 1.4 Mexico’s “nameless conflict” ...................................................................................... 7 1.5 Methodology ................................................................................................................ 9 1.5.1 Research strategy .................................................................................................. 9 1.5.2 Data collection and analysis ............................................................................... 10 1.6 Structure ..................................................................................................................... 13 2. Background information .................................................................................................... 15 2.1 Illicit drug market ...................................................................................................... 15 2.1.1 Global drug trafficking ....................................................................................... 15 2.1.2 Mexican drug trafficking .................................................................................... 16 2.2 Historical and structural preconditions ...................................................................... 18 2.2.1 Historical development of Mexican drug trafficking ......................................... 18 2.2.2 Structural preconditions ..................................................................................... 19 2.3 Causes of drug-related violence ................................................................................ 19 2.3.1 Violence - an intrinsic feature of illicit markets? ............................................... 19 2.3.2 The context matters: Contributing factors .......................................................... 20 2.3.3 Regime change ................................................................................................... 21 2.3.4 Enforcement-and-suppression strategy .............................................................. 22 2.4 The Mexican drug trafficking organizations ............................................................. 23 2.4.1 Tijuana DTO ...................................................................................................... 24 2.4.2 Sinaloa DTO ....................................................................................................... 25 2.4.3 Beltrán Leyva Organisation ............................................................................... 26 2.4.4 Juárez DTO ........................................................................................................ 27 2.4.5 La Familia Michoacana ...................................................................................... 28 2.4.6 Gulf DTO ........................................................................................................... 29 2.4.7 Los Zetas ............................................................................................................ 30 Table of content iii 3. Theoretical framework ....................................................................................................... 32 3.1 Conceptual Issues ..................................................................................................... 32 3.1.1 Civil war ............................................................................................................. 32 3.1.2 Violence ............................................................................................................. 33 3.1.3 Scope conditions ................................................................................................ 34 3.2 Barbarism and civil war ............................................................................................. 35 3.3 Warfare ...................................................................................................................... 36 3.4 The logic of civil war ................................................................................................. 38 3.4.1 Five zones of control .......................................................................................... 39 3.4.2 Civilian support matters ..................................................................................... 39 3.4.3 It’s about control ................................................................................................ 40 3.5 Selective versus indiscriminate violence ................................................................... 43 3.5.1 The logic of indiscriminate violence .................................................................. 43 3.5.2 A theory of selective violence ............................................................................ 45 3.6 Five zones of control & violence ............................................................................... 47 3.7 Summary .................................................................................................................... 48 4. Drug-related violence: Disaggregation of data .................................................................. 50 4.1 Pathologies and biases in research on violence ......................................................... 50 4.2 Disaggregation of data on drug-related violence ....................................................... 52 4.2.1 Temporal & geographical trends in drug-related violence ................................. 53 4.2.2 The relational & motivational dimension ........................................................... 65 4.2.3 Drug-related violence by actor and type of violence ........................................ 71 5. Kalyvas’ theory of selective violence on the case of Michoacán: An Analysis............... 74 5.1 Civilian support matters ............................................................................................. 74 5.2 It’s about control ........................................................................................................ 77 5.2.1 The distribution of control .................................................................................. 78 5.2.2 Control & Collaboration .................................................................................... 78 5.2.3 The role of violence ............................................................................................ 81 5.3 Selective versus indiscriminate violence ................................................................... 85 5.3.1 Selective violence .............................................................................................. 85 5.3.2 Indiscriminate violence ..................................................................................... 86 5.5 Measuring control ...................................................................................................... 90 5.4.1 Total incumbent control & total insurgent control (zone 1 & 5)........................ 90 5.4.2 Dominant incumbent control & dominant insurgent control (zone 2 & 4) ........ 93 5.4.3 Contested control (zone 3) ................................................................................. 95 6. Conclusion ........................................................................................................................... 97 6.1 Constraints ................................................................................................................