(MPCBM*OUFSOBUJPOBM 8BUFST"TTFTTNFOU &65301)*$"5*0/*/ 5)&#-"$,4&"3&(*0/ *.1"$5"44&44.&/5"/%$"64"-$)"*/"/"-:4*4 0MFOB#PSZTPWB "OESFZ,POEBLPW 4VTBOOB1BMFBSJ &MJOB3BVUBMBIUJ.JFUUJOFO 'FMJY4UPMCFSHBOE%BH%BMFS Eutrophication in the Black Sea region Impact assessment and Causal chain analysis Leading authors: Olena Borysova Kharkiv National Academy of Municipal Economy, Ukraine Andrey Kondakov Southern Centre of Russian National Academy of Science, Russia Susanna Paleari National Research Council of Italy, Italy Elina Rautalahti-Miettinen Global International Waters Assessment, Sweden Felix Stolberg Black Sea Ecosystem Recovery Project, Ukraine Dag Daler Global International Waters Assessment, Sweden Global International Waters Assessment Eutrophication in the Black Sea region; Impact assessment and Causal chain analysis. Published by the University of Kalmar with an agreement with the GEF-UNDP Black Sea Ecosystem Recovery Project. © 2005 University of Kalmar ISBN: 91-89584-50-3 University of Kalmar SE-391 82 Kalmar Sweden This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part and in any form for educational or non-profi t purposes without special permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgement of the source is made. No use of this publication may be made for resale or for any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in writing from the University of Kalmar. CITATIONS When citing this report, please use: Borysova, O., Kondakov, A., Paleari, S., Rautalahti-Miettinen, E., Stolberg, F. and D. Daler, 2005. Eutrophication in the Black Sea region; Impact assessment and Causal chain analysis. University of Kalmar, Kalmar, Sweden. DISCLAIMER This publication has been peer-reviewed and the information herein is believed to be reliable, but the publisher does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Printed and bound in Kalmar, Sweden, by Sunds Tryck Öland AB. Contents Preface 7 Executive summary 8 Regional defi nition 9 Geographical boundaries 9 Physical characteristics of the region 10 Political and socio-economic characteristics 16 Impact assessment, eutrophication 27 Environmental impacts 27 Scoring and list with justifi cation of the priority impacts for the Black Sea Basin 37 Causal chain analysis 40 Introduction to methodology 40 Conceptual model of the CCA 40 Immediate causes 41 Sector analysis 42 Root causes 44 Conclusion 46 Sources 48 Annexes 49 Annex I Contact information on the authors and the contributors of the report 49 Annex II Socio-economic indicators of the countries of the Black Sea catchment area 50 Annex III Water resources in the Black Sea countries 53 Annex IV Economic estimation for the damage of eutrophication for 5 Southern regions of Ukraine 56 Annex V Classifi cation tables for eutrophication levels of marine and fresh waters 60 CONTENTS List of figures Figure 1 General map of the region, elevations are based on USGS 2002 . 9 Figure 2 Sub-basin map of the Black Sea.. 10 Figure 3 Land use in the Dnipro Basin . 13 Figure 4 Heavy industry in the Black Sea area. 17 Figure 5 Population density in the Black Sea catchment area. 18 Figure 6 Dams in the Black Sea region. 19 Figure 7 Total national water abstraction from the Danube River Basin . 21 Figure 8 National demand for water (%) from the Dnipro Basin in Ukraine (by sector). Agricultural sector demand supplies 85% of water for irrigation.. 22 Figure 9 Algae bloom in the Black Sea. 27 Figure 10 The process of eutrophication in the Black Sea. 27 Figure 11 Development of plant life in coastal waters with increased level of nutrients. 28 Figure 12 Eutrophication levels in the Black Sea (hypertrophic – red, eutrophic – orange, mesotrophic – yellow and blue).. 28 Figure 13 Expansion of hypoxia and anoxia zones in the northwest of the Black Sea. 29 Figure 14 Linkages between eutrophication and other transboundary issues . 34 Figure 15 Mineral nitrogen (N) fertilizers consumption – E.U.15 Member States, from 1930 to 1999. 41 Figure 16 The agricultural nitrogen air/soil/water exchanges and possible impacts. 42 Figure 17 Flow Chart Diagram of the CCA for the Black Sea region . 44 List of tables Table 1 Water balance of the Azov Sea (1953-1985), km3/year (average) . 11 Table 2 Environmental protection areas in the Danube River Basin countries . 13 Table 3 Annual precipitation in selected Danube River Basin countries . 13 Table 4 The major Dnipro tributaries . 13 Table 5 Economic characteristics of the countries in the Dnipro Basin (1998-2000). 14 Table 6 Industrial production output of the Ukrainian part of the Dnipro Basin . 14 Table 7 Surface waters. 14 Table 8 Groundwater (usable reserves) . 15 Table 9 Population characteristics. 15 Table 10 River network of the Don Basin . 15 Table 11 Dominant industries in the littoral countries. ..