UIC-Study Night Trains 2.0 New opportunities by HSR? Executive summary Night Trains 2.0 – New opportunities by HSR? UIC-Study DB International GmbH on behalf of the INTERNATIONAL UNION OF RAILWAYS (UIC) Berlin, 30 April 2013 Agenda First general results and recommendations Background and purpose of the study Analysis of the current situation Survey of infrastructure and operation conditions Identification of opportunities for Night Trains in 2025 Backup DB International | Night Trains 2.0 | 30/04/2013 2 Agenda First general results and recommendations Background and purpose of the study Analysis of the current situation Survey of infrastructure and operation conditions Identification of opportunities for Night Trains in 2025 Backup DB International | Night Trains 2.0 | 30/04/2013 3 Very Long Distance Night Trains (VLDNT) can compete traditional air routes in the near future if rail infrastructure costs fall significantly Recommendations Assets & challenges KEY FINDINGS RECOMMENDATIONS New HS infrastructure and rolling stock Continuing significantly extends overnight travel ranges and construction makes numerous long distance city connections possible PAX traffic volume Detail ASSETS on reviewed connections offers a substantial base for studies planning new Very Long Distance Night Train services High energy efficiency and environmental advantages Intensified will improve VLDNT competitiveness vs. air transport in communication view of rising oil prices and stronger regulations Infrastructure and operation limitations DAILY Detail require different maintenance procedures and modified BUSINESS studies freight operations in some network areas Infrastructure costs Political CHALLENGE are by far the biggest cost driver and prohibit competitive lobbying 1) VLDNT offers at the moment DB International | Night Trains 2.0 | 30/04/2013 4 Using HS infrastructure and rolling stock, Night Train service enters a different competitive arena: Very Long Distance segment Assets Competition area Range ~1,200 km Range ~2,200 km HS day train Comfortable, fast Whole day trip, today < 5 % market share Car Cheap, one day trip > 24 h, overnight stay spending Coach Cheap, one day trip > 24 h, uncomfortable Plane Fast, affordable Fast, affordable 2) Night Train Overnight, affordable Overnight, affordable DB International | Night Trains 2.0 | 31/01/2013 5 In order to achieve successful load factors VLDNT just have to acquire a fraction of modal shifts – e.g. HS market entry Assets Market Achieved shift from air to HS... Required shift from air to VLDNT…. 10 % 40 % 2000/02 | 2008/12 2012 2025 Barcelona - Madrid 10 % 50 % China South East 0 % 2 % Paris - London 60 % 80 % Europe West 0 % 4 % Paris - Marseille 45 % 80 % Japan Link 0 % 7 % Sources: http://ebookbrowse.com/sdg-2009-potential-for-modal-shift-from-air-to-rail-for-uk-aviation-pdf-d214312717 http://ec.europa.eu/transport/rail/studies/doc/2006_08_study_air_rail_competition_en.pdf http://www.invensysrail.com/whitepapers/hsh-research-report.pdf http://www.publicsectortravel.org.uk/chart-of-the-week-railair-market-share/ DB International | Night Trains 2.0 | 30/04/2013 6 VLDNT benefits from electric mobility on the long run because of rising oil prices and state-run climate protection regulations Assets Environment Very Long Distance Night Train Medium haul flight − Electric powered train − No serious alternatives OIL to fossil fuels so far INDEPENDENCY − 100 % renewable energy − Forecast: long-term 3) supply feasible dependency from Oil − High energy efficiency − High climate effects ENVIRONMENTAL based on RFI SUSTAINABILITY − Use of renewable 4) energies ROOM FOR TECHNICAL − Potential of energy − Potential of energy IMPROVEMENT savings until 2025: 50 % savings until 2025: 40 % 5) FUTURE VIABILITY DB International | Night Trains 2.0 | 30/04/2013 7 At the moment there are some infrastructure and operation limitations for NT using HS infrastructure – but no insuperable obstacles Daily business Infrastructure and operation limitations Intersection capacity – traffic bottlenecks due to capacity deficits in rush hour times) OPERATIONS Rolling stock requirements – maximum gradient of HSL requires special rolling stock parameters Maintenance – Overnight maintenance could lead to HSL closures NIGHT OPERATIONS Freight train operations – conflict of VLDNT with slower freight trains on infrastructure shared by passenger and freight trains Border control – operational stops due to process passenger controls 6) SECURITY Check-In facilities – absence of security check-in facilities at stations served by trains using exposed HSL 7) INTER- Interoperability – obstacles for nonstop operations due to OPERABILITY technical incompatibilities 8) DB International | Night Trains 2.0 | 30/04/2013 8 Track access charges are by far the biggest cost driver and prohibit competitive VLDNT offers Challenge Infrastructure costs . Round about 60 % of operation costs cannot be influenced by the train operator . Present high track access charges overcompensate advantages of VLDNT VLDNT 60 % in comparison to air travel Operation costs . Particularly utilization of Channel Tunnel is extremely expensive Track Access Access Track Charges Without adjusted charges for Night Train track slots VLDNT services are not competitive DB International | Night Trains 2.0 | 30/04/2013 9 Agenda First general results and recommendations Background and purpose of the study Analysis of the current situation Survey of infrastructure and operation conditions Identification of opportunities for Night Trains in 2025 Backup DB International | Night Trains 2.0 | 30/04/2013 10 Purpose of the study - The study reveals opportunities and challenges of a future night train Background and purpose . What about the opportunities of operating the Night Trains in an economic way in future? . How can the extending / planned HSR support a potential development? . The current challenges of the Night Trains could be characterised as follows: − HSR has negative impact on the Night Trains (demand market) − New High Speed Lines and the network is growing − Extension of HSR day service − Competition of Night Trains with air traffic / low cost airlines is growing − Competition of the railways in respective to capacity on the network / HSL − Extremely expensive track access charges accrued due to the long distances DB International | Night Trains 2.0 | 30/04/2013 11 Basic approach: High Speed Rail (HSR) as an opportunity to create new night train offers and service attributes Background and purpose Chances Challenges Night Trains 2.0 Extension of the network Relation revenue vs. costs – Development of new non-stop offers, – Main cost factors (e.g. track access extended travel range by using HSR charges) increase proportionally to infrastructure/rolling stock the travel distance – Identification of route options / variants – At the same time the willingness to Enhancement of the robustness in pay of the customer does not rise operation linearly to the increasing distance of the route – Later departure on existing lines Infrastructure capacity – Reduction of the travelling times – Conflict potential in regard to the New aspects for a positioning strategy increasing day services and freight – Increasing importance of environmental traffic volumes aspects Competition of Night Trains with air Possibility of multiple utilization of traffic and HSR night train rolling stock – Cut-throat price competition on – Night Trains are suitable for high quality many medium-haul flight routes HSR day traffic caused by low-cost carriers – Reduction of travel times at night frees up time to modify night into day trains DB International | Night Trains 2.0 | 30/04/2013 12 In general, the three categories of Night Trains are conceivable but the study only focuses on the “Classic Night Trains” Background and purpose Night train categorisation model Standard Classic Touristic Journey Day Train Night Train Train Overnight Simple Traditional Hotel Multi-Day Luxury Day Train Night Train Night Train Night Train Night Train (Night)Train . Standard day . Long distance . Long distance . Long distance . Long distance . Long distance train rolling stock train including the train including train including train including train running running opportunity of the opportunity the opportunity the opportunity of partly overnight, overnight couchette of couchette of sleeping sleeping cars special luxury (core night time coaches coaches and cars, in this . Train journey trains or at least 24-05 h) on long sleeping cars class only whole including two or luxury cars Definition distance compartments more night included connections can be booked, times not single beds . IC 2020 . Intercités de . CNL . Elipsos . Trans-Siberian . Eastern&Oriental Frankfurt - nuit . EuroNight Railwav Express Hamburg . Southwest . Rocky Mountaineer Focus of the study to: Chief (coast-to- . Royal Scotsman • Market size – also attractive for business travellers coast USA) . Venice Simplon Examples • Market segment – competing medium-haul flights by Orient Express overnight train trip (max. 12 h) • Product differentiation – train bed vs. plane seat DB International | Night Trains 2.0 | 30/04/2013 13 The use of HS Trains and HS Infrastructure offers a new market for overnight travel: Very Long Distance Night trains (VLDNT) Background and purpose Potential new Night Train market Traditional market New market km/h 9) NIGHT TRAIN VERY LONG DISTANCE HS Trains NIGHT TRAIN HS Infrastructure Maximum speed Maximum speed ~ 200 km/h ~ 300 km/h Travel