9 July 2021 Free to View Asia COVID-19 & Vaccine Tracker Economics - Asia Tougher restrictions As COVID-19 cases continue to surge across Asia, more Yun Liu authorities have re-imposed restrictions or even lockdowns Economist The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited But this has increased the urgency to ramp up vaccine Frederic Neumann procurement and roll-out in the region Co-Head of Asian Economics Research The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited Some economies have started pilot programmes to revive tourism, but a full re-opening may take a long time Maitreyi Das Associate Bangalore Déjà vu No end in sight just yet. The Delta variant is causing daily new COVID-19 cases to surge to new record highs across Asia, prompting more governments to re-impose tougher restrictions. This is particularly evident in ASEAN, where cases in Indonesia and Vietnam have been rising sharply. The former has extended its tightening measures throughout the country until 20 July, while the latter will impose a strict lockdown in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) from 9 July for 15 days. Meanwhile, just two weeks before the Tokyo Olympics, Japan is set to declare its fourth state of emergency in Tokyo from 12 July to 20 August, raising the possibility of no spectators attending the games. Meanwhile, Singapore is the only country that has decided to ease its social restrictions from 12 July, as new cases remain low. Urgency on vaccination The recent outbreaks in the region has alerted the authorities that the key to exiting the pandemic is to accelerate vaccine procurement and roll-out. Singapore tops the region, as close to 40% of its population has been fully vaccinated, on track to achieve “herd immunity” by 3Q21. Mainland China has administered over 1.3bn vaccine doses as of 6 July, which means that almost 70% of its population has been vaccinated with at least one dose, according to our estimates. Meanwhile, ASEAN countries that are lagging behind are also tapping all available resources and, encouragingly, progress has been made recently. Vietnam will likely receive more than 60m vaccine doses, enough to inoculate around 30% of its population by the end of 2021. Malaysia (1m) and Thailand (1m) have received more vaccine doses from the US and China, respectively, while Indonesia is expected to receive an additional 4m vaccine doses from the US. Pilot island tourism Despite surging cases, some tourism-dependent countries have kick-started pilot programmes. Thailand has launched its no-quarantine “sandbox” pilot programme in Phuket from 1 July and has welcomed over 2,000 visitors in the first week. Meanwhile, Vietnam also announced an easing of restrictions for fully vaccinated travellers in Quang Ninh province from 1 July. However, low vaccination rates raise questions on how quickly the pilot programmes can be turned into a full and sustained border re- opening. We believe the earlier countries can reach “herd immunity”, the quicker a meaningful recovery in tourism can be achieved. This is an abridged version of a report of the same title published on 9 July 2021. Please contact your HSBC representative or email [email protected] for more information. Disclosures & Disclaimer Issuer of report: The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Research at: https://www.research.hsbc.com Free to View ● Economics - Asia 9 July 2021 Asia COVID-19 and Vaccine Tracker Chart 1: Total confirmed vaccine doses by country and territory (% of population) Most economies have % of population secured enough vaccine 400 doses to reach “herd immunity” 300 200 100 0 AU NZ HK SK JN MA SG TH PH ID VN **IN TA *CH BA Oxford University Pfizer Janssen (J &J) Moderna Sinovac Novavax Gamaleya Research CanSino Biologics Bharat Biotech Sinopharm Corbevax Others Note: *CH – Mainland China. Duke University’s data do not include domestic supply for mainland China (not made publicly available). **Does not include domestic production. Source: Duke University Health Innovation Center, HSBC Chart 2: Percentage of people who received at least one dose and were fully vaccinated Almost 40% of Singapore’s 80.0 68.46 population has been fully 70.0 62.75 vaccinated 60.0 50.0 40.0 32.56 30.12 30.0 26.49 25.33 20.98 20.93 15.94 20.0 13.88 12.13 11.81 11.3 8.26 10.0 3.79 3.54 0.0 *CH SI HK KR JN AU MA IN NZ SL ID TH TA PH VN BA People vaccinated per 100 Fully vaccinated per 100 Note: *CH – Mainland China data are our estimated share of people vaccinated from the total number of doses given. As of 10 June, 16% of the population is fully vaccinated. Source: Our World in Data, HSBC Chart 3: Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases per one million population Number of confirmed COVID- No of confirmed cases % 19 cases (per one million 120,000 6.0 people) in Asia remains far below those in Western 100,000 5.0 economies 80,000 4.0 60,000 3.0 40,000 2.0 20,000 1.0 0 0.0 US UK MA IN PH SL SG ID JN BA TH SK HK AU TA NZ VN *CH Cases per m Mortality rate Note: *CH – Mainland China. Source: CEIC, HSBC 2 Free to View ● Economics - Asia 9 July 2021 Asia COVID-19 and Vaccine Tracker Chart 4: Daily vaccination rate per economy (7-day moving average) 7 dma 7 dma Vaccination rates in Malaysia 25,000,000 300,000 and the Philippines continue to pick up as the number of 20,000,000 250,000 new cases remains elevated 200,000 15,000,000 150,000 10,000,000 100,000 5,000,000 50,000 0 0 CH* IN JN ID MA PH TH AU TA SL SK SG HK VN NZ BA Latest daily doses per m of population 1 week ago Latest daily doses per m of population 1 week ago Source: Our World in Data, HSBC. Note: *CH – Mainland China. Chart 5: Daily vaccine rate per million of population Per m Singapore now tops the 18,000 region in daily doses per 16,000 million population 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 SG CH* MA HK JN AU SL TA NZ TH ID IN PH SK VN BA Latest daily doses per m of population 1 week ago Source: Our World in Data, HSBC. Note: *CH – Mainland China. Chart 6: Projected timeline for “herd immunity” (75% of the population), given the pace of daily vaccinations The timeline to reach “herd SG immunity” is moving closer *CH for many economies HK JN MA AU SL TA NZ TH IN ID SK PH VN BA Jan-21 Jul-21 Feb-22 Aug-22 Mar-23 Sep-23 Apr-24 Nov-24 May-25 Dec-25 Source: Our World in Data, HSBC. Note: *CH – Mainland China. Grey bar indicates economy with “herd immunity” timelines beyond December 2025. 3 Free to View ● Economics - Asia 9 July 2021 COVID-19 in Asia Chart 7: Indonesia Chart 8: Malaysia Confirmed cases Malay sia Daily change Daily new cases in Indonesia Confirmed cases Indonesia Daily change 2,500,000 36,000 900,000 10,000 are at new historic highs; 800,000 9,000 30,000 Malaysia’s new cases are 2,000,000 700,000 8,000 rising after being on a 24,000 600,000 7,000 1,500,000 6,000 downward trend 500,000 18,000 5,000 400,000 1,000,000 4,000 12,000 300,000 3,000 200,000 500,000 6,000 2,000 100,000 1,000 0 0 0 0 Feb-20 May-20 Aug-18 Nov-16 Feb-14 May-15 Feb-20 May-20 Aug-18 Nov-16 Feb-14 May-15 Daily change (RHS) Number of confirmed cases Daily change (RHS) Number of confirmed cases Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: CEIC, HSBC Chart 9: Philippines Chart 10: Singapore Confirmed cases Philippines Daily change Confirmed cases Singapore Daily change Daily new cases in the 1,600,000 18,000 70,000 1,600 Philippines remain elevated; 1,400,000 16,000 60,000 1,400 new cases in Singapore 14,000 1,200,000 50,000 1,200 remain contained 12,000 1,000,000 1,000 10,000 40,000 800,000 800 8,000 30,000 600,000 6,000 600 20,000 400,000 4,000 400 200,000 2,000 10,000 200 0 0 0 0 Feb-20 May-20 Aug-18 Nov-16 Feb-14 May-15 Feb-20 May-20 Aug-18 Nov-16 Feb-14 May-15 Daily change (RHS) Number of confirmed cases Daily change (RHS) Number of confirmed cases Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: CEIC, HSBC Chart 11: Thailand Chart 12: Vietnam Confirmed cases Vietnam Daily change Thailand’s daily new cases Confirmed cases Thailand Daily change 350,000 12,000 25,000 1,200 are on an upward trend; 300,000 Vietnam’s new cases have 10,000 20,000 1,000 risen to historic highs 250,000 8,000 800 200,000 15,000 6,000 600 150,000 10,000 4,000 100,000 400 50,000 2,000 5,000 200 0 0 0 0 Feb-20 Jun-20 Oct-20 Feb-20 Jun-20 Feb-20 Jun-20 Oct-20 Feb-20 Jun-20 Daily change (RHS) Number of confirmed cases Daily change (RHS) Number of confirmed cases Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: CEIC, HSBC 4 Free to View ● Economics - Asia 9 July 2021 COVID-19 in Asia Taiwan’s daily new cases Chart 13: Mainland China Chart 14: Taiwan have moderated significantly after a recent wave Confirmed cases Mainland China Daily change Confirmed cases Taiwan Daily change 120,000 18,000 18,000 1000 100,000 15,000 15,000 800 80,000 12,000 12,000 600 60,000 9,000 9,000 400 40,000 6,000 6,000 20,000 3,000 3,000 200 0 0 0 0 Feb-20 May-20 Aug-20 Nov-20 Feb-21 May-21 Jan 20 Apr 20 Jul 20 Oct 20 Jan 21 Apr 21 Daily change (RHS) No of confirmed cases Daily change (RHS) No of confirmed cases Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: CEIC, HSBC Chart 15: India Chart 16: Sri Lanka Confirmed cases India Daily change Confirmed cases Sri Lanka Daily change India’s daily new cases 36,000,000 480,000 300,000 4,000 continue to decline, but 32,000,000 420,000 250,000 3,500 remain elevated; Sri Lanka’s 28,000,000 360,000 3,000 200,000 new cases are on a 24,000,000 300,000 2,500 20,000,000 downtrend trend 240,000 150,000 2,000 16,000,000 12,000,000 180,000 100,000 1,500 8,000,000