School of Geography South Parks Road CCCCC University of Oxford Lawrence Nicholas Building Oxford, OX1 3QY Belmopan United Kingdom [email protected] Belize www.caribsave.org CARIBSAVE FINAL REPORT Negril ‐ Jamaica November 2009 Caribbean Climate Change, Tourism & Livelihoods: A sectoral approach to vulnerability and resilience Water, Energy, Agriculture, Human Health, Biodiversity, Infrastructure and Settlement, Comprehensive Disaster Management CONTENTS CONTENTS ......................................................................................................................................................... 2 1. INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................................................... 4 2. CLIMATE MODELLING: Observed and Projected Changes in Climate at Negril, Jamaica .......................... 5 2.1 Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................... 5 2.2 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 7 2.3 Temperature ...................................................................................................................................... 8 2.4 Precipitation .................................................................................................................................... 10 2.5 Average Wind Speed ....................................................................................................................... 13 2.6 Relative Humidity ............................................................................................................................ 15 2.7 Sunshine Hours ................................................................................................................................ 16 2.8 Sea Surface Temperatures ............................................................................................................... 18 2.9 Temperature Extremes .................................................................................................................... 19 2.10 Rainfall Extremes ............................................................................................................................. 21 2.11 Hurricanes and Tropical Cyclones .................................................................................................... 23 2.12 Sea Level Rise ................................................................................................................................... 24 2.13 Storm Surge ..................................................................................................................................... 26 2.14 Conclusions and Recommendations................................................................................................ 27 3. VULNERABILITY PROFILE .......................................................................................................................... 29 3.1 Introduction and the Affects of Climate Variability......................................................................... 29 3.2 Water Quality and Availability ......................................................................................................... 29 3.3 Energy Supply and Distribution (Regional, National & Destinational) ............................................ 30 3.4 Agriculture, Fisheries and Food Security ......................................................................................... 34 3.5 Human Health .................................................................................................................................. 34 3.6 Marine and Terrestrial Biodiversity, and Landscape Aesthetics ..................................................... 35 3.7 Infrastructure and Settlements ....................................................................................................... 37 3.8 Comprehensive (Natural) Disaster Management ............................................................................ 44 3.9 Identification of the Most Vulnerable ............................................................................................. 46 3.9.1 Gender ..................................................................................................................................... 47 3.9.2 Poverty ..................................................................................................................................... 51 3.10 International Climate Policy, Transport Costs and Tourism Arrivals ............................................... 52 3.11 Climatic Resources for Tourism ....................................................................................................... 54 3.12 Conclusion ....................................................................................................................................... 57 4. ADAPTIVE CAPACITY PROFILE .................................................................................................................. 58 4.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 58 4.2 Resource Availability ....................................................................................................................... 58 4.3 Institutional and Governance Networks and Competence ............................................................. 59 4.4 Political Leadership and Commitment ............................................................................................ 60 4.5 Social Capital and Equity ................................................................................................................. 61 4.6 Information Technologies and Communication Systems ................................................................ 62 4.7 Health of Environment .................................................................................................................... 62 4.8 Conclusion ....................................................................................................................................... 63 5. CONCLUSION, RECOMMENDATIONS and PLAN FOR ACTION ................................................................. 64 5.1 General Action Points ...................................................................................................................... 64 5.1.1 Completing the Adaptation Cycle ............................................................................................ 66 5.1.2 Climate Data Collection and Collation ..................................................................................... 66 5.1.3 Application of Vulnerability Indices ......................................................................................... 67 5.2 Sea Level Rise ................................................................................................................................... 67 5.3 Water ............................................................................................................................................... 68 5.3.1 Water Assessment ................................................................................................................... 68 2 5.4 Energy .............................................................................................................................................. 68 5.4.1 Implementation of the Mitigation Spiral ................................................................................. 68 5.4.2 Links with Existing and Forthcoming Energy Projects in the Region ....................................... 68 5.4.3 Climate Policy and Carbon Neutrality Research Needs ........................................................... 69 5.5 Agriculture ....................................................................................................................................... 70 5.5.1 Development of Agriculture .................................................................................................... 70 5.6 Biodiversity ...................................................................................................................................... 70 5.7 Human Health .................................................................................................................................. 70 5.8 Infrastructure and Settlements ....................................................................................................... 70 5.8.1 Coastal Erosion in Dune Areas ................................................................................................. 70 5.8.2 Implementation of Sandwatch Projects .................................................................................. 70 5.8.3 Sea Level Rise (SLR) Vulnerability Assessment of Tourism Assets, Infrastructure and Settlements ............................................................................................................................................. 71 5.9 Identification of those Most Vulnerable ......................................................................................... 71 5.9.1 Vulnerabilities, Livelihoods, Gender and Climate Change ....................................................... 71 5.10 Comprehensive (Natural) Disaster Management ...........................................................................