Vetenskaplig osäkerhet i policyprocessen En studie av svensk klimatpolitik Knaggård, Åsa 2009 Link to publication Citation for published version (APA): Knaggård, Å. (2009). Vetenskaplig osäkerhet i policyprocessen: En studie av svensk klimatpolitik. Lund University. 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LUND UNIVERSITY PO Box 117 221 00 Lund +46 46-222 00 00 Vetenskaplig osäkerhet i policyprocessen 2 VETENSKAPLIG OSÄKERHET I POLICYPROCESSEN En studie av svensk klimatpolitik ÅSA KNAGGÅRD Lund Political Studies 156 Statsvetenskapliga institutionen Lunds universitet 3 © Åsa Knaggård, 2009 Layout: Åsa Knaggård Omslag: Johan Albertén Tryck: Media-Tryck, Lund, 2009 ISBN-10: 91-88306-75-5 ISBN-13: 978-91-88306-75-3 ISSN: 0460-0037 Distribution: Statsvetenskapliga institutionen Lunds universitet Box 52, 221 00 Lund http://www.svet.lu.se 4 Innehåll Författarens tack ...................................................................................................7 Förkortningar........................................................................................................8 Figurförteckning ................................................................................................. 10 1. Inledning ......................................................................................................... 13 Spänningsfältet mellan vetenskap och politik ...............................................................................13 Syfte och frågeställningar .................................................................................................................16 Från vetenskap till politik.................................................................................................................20 Fallet den svenska policyprocessen i klimatfrågan .......................................................................25 Material ...............................................................................................................................................34 Disposition.........................................................................................................................................40 2. Vetenskaplig osäkerhet...................................................................................43 En distinktion ....................................................................................................................................43 En operationalisering av vetenskaplig osäkerhet..........................................................................52 Till den empiriska analysen..............................................................................................................60 3. Vetenskap och politik ..................................................................................... 61 Relationen vetenskap–politik...........................................................................................................62 En teoretisk förståelse av relationen...............................................................................................71 Till den empiriska analysen..............................................................................................................82 4. Ett ramverk för policyprocessen i vetenskapligt osäkra frågor......................84 Policyprocesser ..................................................................................................................................84 John Kingdons flödesramverk ........................................................................................................96 Flöden i spänningsfältet mellan vetenskap och politik..............................................................101 Till den empiriska analysen............................................................................................................104 5. Ett relativt okänt problem............................................................................. 108 Problemflödet ..................................................................................................................................108 Policyflödet.......................................................................................................................................119 Politikflödet......................................................................................................................................127 Avslutande diskussion ....................................................................................................................131 6. Ökad uppmärksamhet .................................................................................. 136 Problemflödet ..................................................................................................................................137 5 Policyflödet.......................................................................................................................................148 Politikflödet......................................................................................................................................157 Avslutande diskussion ....................................................................................................................164 7. Mellanspel – frågan neutraliseras ................................................................. 170 Problemflödet ..................................................................................................................................171 Policyflödet.......................................................................................................................................183 Politikflödet......................................................................................................................................191 Avslutande diskussion ....................................................................................................................197 8. Nya förutsättningar....................................................................................... 203 Problemflödet ..................................................................................................................................204 Policyflödet.......................................................................................................................................209 Politikflödet......................................................................................................................................222 Avslutande diskussion ....................................................................................................................229 9. Vår tids ödesfråga?........................................................................................ 233 Problemflödet ..................................................................................................................................233 Policyflödet.......................................................................................................................................244 Politikflödet......................................................................................................................................258 Avslutande diskussion ....................................................................................................................263 10. Slutsatser...................................................................................................... 268 Övergripande slutsatser..................................................................................................................268 Den vetenskapliga osäkerhetens karaktär....................................................................................272 Roller och aktörer............................................................................................................................279 Flöden, dagordningar och policyprocessen.................................................................................288 Reflektioner kring avhandlingens ramverk..................................................................................290 Summary ........................................................................................................... 293 Bilaga 1. Kronologi............................................................................................ 297 Bilaga 2. Intervjuguide ..................................................................................... 302 Referenser ......................................................................................................... 303 Litteratur...........................................................................................................................................303