2|2012 2|2012 FARMERS IN FAIRYTALE LAND Marcin Król V4 LEADERSHIP 9 9 IN EASTERN 772084 772084 ISSN 2084-8250 ISSN 2084-8250 PARTNERSHIP 825404 825404 Jana Kobzová 02 02 RENEWED TRUST IN STATE AND ITS INSTITUTIONS WWW.VISEGRADINSIGHT.EU WWW.VISEGRADREVUE.EU László Csaba RISE AND Special report by FALL STRATFOR OF THE Global Intelligence MIDDLE CLASS Iveta Radičová, Anna Giza-Poleszczuk, Roman Joch, Vladimír Špidla, Ondřej Liška, Gabor Takacs, Péter Nádas, Tomasz Zarycki INTERVIEW: Timothy Garton Ash on the Future of Europe Read more at www.visegradrevue.euRead more at www.visegradrevue.eu Every week new essays, interviews and reflections on V4 politics and society Every week new essays, interviews and reflections on V4 politics and society 2|2012 CIRCULATION: 4000 FREQUENCY: twice a year EDITOR-IN-CHIEF Wojciech Przybylski (Res Publica Nowa, PL) ECONOMY Martin Ehl (Hospodářské noviny, CZ) INTELLIGENT MIND Éva Karádi (Magyar Lettre Internationale, HU) and Marta Šimečková (www.salon.eu.sk, SK) BOOKS Marek Sečkař (Host, CZ) INTERVIEW AND COMMUNITIES Máté Zombory (HU) VISEGRAD ABROAD AND LOOKING BACK/ARTS in cooperation with Europeum (CZ) ARTS SECTION GUEST EDITOR Miklós Székely (HU) LANGUAGE EDITORS C. Cain Elliot (Res Publica Nowa, USA) Matthew Chambers (Res Publica Nowa, USA) PROOF READING Adrianna Stansbury (Res Publica Nowa, PL/USA) ASSISTANT TO THE EDITOR Anna Wójcik (Res Publica Nowa, PL) GRAPHIC DESIGN PUBLISHED BY Fundacja Res Publica im. H. Krzeczkowskiego ul. Gałczyńskiego 5, 00-362 Warsaw, Poland tel.: +48 22 826 05 66 ORDERS AND INQUIRIES: [email protected] This issue is free of charge. Postage charge may apply WEBPAGE www.visegradinsight.eu WEBZINE UPDATED WEEKLY, EDITED BY EUROPEUM www.visegradrevue.eu ON THE COVER: "Gorilla protest" in Slovakia 2012 We kindly thank researchers working for this issue: Agata Brzozowska, Jędrzej Burszta, Justyna Janowska, Krzysztof Mroczkowski, Dorota Piotrowska, Natalia Sawicka, and Izabela Wasilewska. Visegrad Insight is published by Res Publica Foundation with the kind support of the International Visegrad Fund. The magazine maintains full editorial independence and opinions expressed in the articles are those of the authors and do not necessarily have to reflect or represent official position of the International Visegrad Fund, the Visegrad Group or the publisher. EDITORIAL MASKS AND MARCHES IN NYC AND MADRID THAT HAVE CAPTURED OUR ATTEN- Rise TION SINCE 2011 WERE FORMED BY THOSE AMBITIOUS, HOPEFUL AND GOOD PEOPLE WHO DEMONSTRATED THEIR PROTEST AGAINST A FATEFUL FUTURE. !e welfare-state is in decline and the free mensely in number. Moreover, the propor- market economy is ruthless to societies in tion of middle class versus the two other of the times of crisis. ends of the societal status spectrum in the !ose protests had their counter- developing world has become higher than Middle parts in V4 countries. Here posters have in the developed world. called for free, equal, and universal ac- !e same year a report prepared by cess to global information in Warsaw, for the Social Situation Observatory a Euro- moral standards in politics in Slovakia and pean Commission research unit, published Class in Prague, or for the welfare state in Buda- interesting data worth juxtaposing against pest, outmoded in a time of austerity. !ey !e Economist's findings. It is rather obvi- mirrored middle-class protests worldwide. ous that what the weekly calls the global WOJCIECH PRZYBYLSKI !is class, however defined, always refers middle class remains unevenly distributed Editor-in-chief to social status and lifestyle. !erefore, between old and new member states of the average income, educational aspirations, EU. However, the developing middle class sensitive morality, and stability are its dis- is proportionally the biggest in the Czech tinctive features. But what else do we know Republic, Slovakia and Hungary. Both about them? Who is behind the mask of studies show that emerging markets can middle class in Central Europe? be far better of in terms of relative equality. Normality has been a twin brother Should we stay happy with those results? of the middle class during the democratic After all, it is not the economy that defines transformation in Central Europe. It was the middle class, or at least it does not de- a common belief that capitalism, democ- fine it to such a degree as !e Economist racy, and the spontaneous social order of would prefer it. ordinary people are essential to peace and Let's start with a simple question put prosperity, which everyone considered to forward by a renowned Hungarian writer be a normal state. We have inherited this in respect to his society. Is the middle WOJCIECH PRZYBYLSKI belief and we have chased it like a dream class equivalent to democrats, people of Editor-in-chief in the region. Alas, the dream has been democratic convictions and standards? No fulfilled by emerging markets, the rule of - answers Péter Nádas. A transformative law, and social standards that have leveled process begun 20 years ago and apparently since 1989, at the same time the source of exhausted has yet another challenge ahead. the fundamental conviction has been fad- It is overall good that people come to ing away. the streets and demand better standards in Sociologists and public intellectuals Central Europe just like in the rest of the have recently presented sets of alarming world. Here no one has removed them by data about rising inequalities in democ- force, unlike in case of Occupy Wall Street, racies and fear that disparity will change and their democratic chatter is spreading. democracies for the worse. Notably, this !ey represent a potential for a further de- refers only to the North, the rich part of the mocratization and perhaps taking the qual- world. Wherever else, be it Brazil or China, ity of decision-making to yet a higher level. but also from Warsaw to Budapest, there is After all, this region has just began experi- a rise of the middle class, just not quite that menting with democracy and it is open to similar to the image of western countries. further innovations. But contrary to such In their 2009 special report Burgeon- hopes stands a long credit of betrayals ing Bourgeoisie, the editors from !e Econ- committed by center-right and center-left omist wrote about two middle classes that parties on the middle class over the last two populate the world. !e first would be the decades. One can hardly imagine that ex- one that is the global middle class whose isting political forces will in fact become its standards of living fall not far from the sta- political representation again. Perhaps this tistical median of countries like Italy. But it is one of the reasons for the number of new also draws attention to a rising number of political parties blossoming and so far with the developing middle class that is relatively quite some electoral success. But after all, in the middle, but yet far from the stand- it is still a question how well do we under- ards of the richest countries. Quoted re- stand the issue at stake, and if the middle search findings show how the middle class class actually has any relevance for the class in China and India has recently grew im- of politicians. 3 CONTENTS EUROPE ECONOMY AND BUSINESS RISE AND FALL OF THE MIDDLE CLASS CHINA AND THE CLASS PROBLEM SURVEY WHAT IS THE 30 Deregulation and New Trust in the State Interview with Csaba László by Martin Ehl CONDITION AND POLITICAL 32 Who Fights for the Middle Class? SIGNIFICANCE OF THE Igor Janke 34 Chinese Middle Class at European Doorsteps MIDDLE CLASS IN THE Marta M. Golonka REGION? INTERVIEW LIFE AND DEBT 38 The Traumatic Symbol of the Middle Class. Interview with Don Kalb by Zoltán Sidó and Dénes Csurgó INTELLIGENT MIND THE END AND THE FUTURE 42 The End of Future Rudolf Chmel 44 Farmers in Fairy-Tale Land. Poland and the European Crisis Marcin Król 48 The Land of Dilemmas Magdalena M. Baran PROSPECTS FOR EUROPE Interview with Timothy Garton Ash Wojciech Przybylski Europe looks shattered, yet PAGE 6 there is hope In recent years, the middle class have for even further demonstrated throughout the world more than enlargement ever. Some have protested about economic and integration. conditions, some about perspectives for higher Wojciech education, others fought for regime change. Przybylski Despite cries for its end, the middle class is interviews Timothy on the rise, including Central Europe. Garton Ash This question is answered by sociologists, analysts and – a renowned politicians from four V4 countries: British historian Iveta Radičová ||, Gábor Takács ||, of Central Europe Anna Giza-Poleszczuk ||, Roman Joch, Vladimír Špidla, Ondřej Liška | | and Professor of European Studies at 17 The Way Things Stand Péter Nádas Oxford University. 23 In Search of a Usable Past: Who Were the Ancestors of !ey discuss the Polish Middle Class? Tomasz Zarycki political condition of the continent THINK TANKS WATCH and perspectives GEOPOLITICS AND MONEY for Turkey and 26 Banking Battlegrounds Maghreb countries PAGE Marc Lanthemann (Stratfor's Europe Analyst) to join EU. 50 4 VISEGRAD INSIGHT 2|2012 CONTENTS VISEGRAD ABROAD IN COOPERATION WITH EUROPEUM URBAN EASTERN AND TRANSATLANTIC ANALYSIS POLITICS OF EUROPEAN CAPITAL OF CULTURE 54 Ukrainian “Stagnarchy” Buries the Eastern Partnership 76 The Chances of Cultural Renewal in Hungary As We Know It Alexander Duleba András Bozóki A VIEW FROM POTENTIAL OF ARTS ARTS/LOOKING BACK THE POTOMAC BOOKS MUSEUMS IN V4 Robert Kron WINNING BOOK AWARDS number of museums 82 When Literature Becomes Politics: Probing the Visegrád number of visitors 2,788,200 Countries' Systems of Literary Awards source: www.stat.gov.lt numberMarek of employees Sečkař 43,974,011,1 LTL source: www.culturalpolicies.net 82 Winged Victory of the Nike.