Issued January 14 2004 HIGHLIGHTS · Sool Plateau Update : Rains of low intensity and limited spatial coverage fell in the first week of December but did little to alleviate the current humanitarian crisis in Sool Plateau. Nutritional status surveys reflect the deteriorating food security situation of residents. An acute malnutrition rate of 18.9% (W/H<2 z-score or oedema) was found during the first round of Sool Plateau sentinel site surveil- lance exercise in November/December 2003. A UNICEF led mission in mid-December 2003 also recorded an equally high malnutri- tion rate in Sool Plateau of Sanaag (4,841 children screened). The rate was significantly higher in Sool Plateau of Sool Region (2,049 children were screened). Civil insecurity in the area is now threatening to disrupt humanitarian relief operations in the region. · Drought in Hawd of Todgheer : An inter-agency rapid assessment led by the FSAU found that the poor and lower levles of the middle wealth pastoral group are facing a high risk of food shortage, largely as a result of poor Gu 2003 and failed Deyr 2003 rains. Affected households will need to be closely monitored during the harsh, dry Jilaal season. For more information on the drought stricken region, see page 2. · Galgadud Region : UN-OCHA Somalia and FSAU carried out a low level mission to Galagdud (13-20 December 2003) to districts where people had been displaced following civil insecurity in the region. This diplacement, combined with a two month delay in the onset of the Deyr rains has undermined agricultural and livestock activities, increasing the risk of food insecurity. A Humanitarian Response Group (HRG) meeting to discuss the current crisis was held on 8 January 2004. For more information contact : calum. [email protected] · Civil Insecurity : Civil Insecurity continues to present a challenge to the people of Somalia and humanitarian organizations attempting to strengthen the livelihoods of the Somali people. As reported by IRIN at the end of December, militia from Puntland occupied Las Anod and other parts of Sanag region. The government of Somaliland has deployed troops to positions outside Aynabo. Also various incidents in Kismayo and Lower Juba suggest a worsening of civil insecurity, as does militia activity in El Wak town, Gedo Region, during December. · Somaliland Gu/Karan 2003 Crop Production : The total Gu/Karan 2003 crop production is very good and the highest recorded figure in post-war years. The Gu/Karan season produced 24,915 Mt of sorghum and 3,289 Mt of maize. Some of the reasons for this good production are very good Karan rains, improved and dressed seeds provided by CINS, land preparation on time which was enhanced by IFAD providing tractors on credit. For a copy of this report please contact the FSAU Field Team Manager : [email protected] · A series of FSAU field workshops in Galkayo and Garowe from January 13 –16 2004 are being held to assess the severity of reported pastoral stress in the areas of Western Mudug and south of Sool and implications on food security. The results will be presented at the HRG meeting on North Somalia (20 Jan) and the SACB FSRDC meeting (21 Jan). Summary of December Rainfall and Vegetation Performance · Figure 1 shows that moderate to heavy rain fell in most parts of southern and central Somalia during the first ten days of December (1st dekad). There was insignificant rainfall in the second and third dekads of December throughout Somalia so these images have not been shown. · In Figure 2 the NDVI satellite imagery (21-30 Dec 03) shows dense vegetation in Juba Valley, Gedo and Bay Regions. · Figure 3 shows that vegetation conditions in southern Somalia are very good compared to the long term average (going back to 1981). · However, vegetation and fodder conditions in the north and parts of central regions remain poor, compared to the long term average. The situation of pastoralists living in these areas remains of great concern. · The early December rains also improved vegetation conditions in Hiran and parts of Galgadud region where Deyr rainfall were initially poor. However, insecurity in Galgadud may keep pastoralists from taking Fig 1 : Rainfall Estimate in mm Fig 2 : Normalized Difference Fig 3 : Normalized Difference 1st Dekad (1-10 Dec 03) Vegetation Index. 21-30 Dec 03 Vegetation Index. 21-30 Dec 03 advantage of the improved grazing areas. · In southern Somalia, the improved (Actual Vegetation 21-30 Dec 03) (Compared to long term average) vegetative conditions will help moderate the normally harsh, dry Jilaal season beginning in January and ending in March. · The Deyr Crop Establishment exercise is taking place in southern Somalia. Information from the field suggests crop performance is normal, despite the late VEGETATION SCALE start to the Deyr season. Exceptions include parts of Bakol, Hiran and Cow- pea belt where insufficient rain fell. Deyr crop predictions will be issued in FSAU’s VEGETATION SCALE February Monthly Report. Source : FEWS NET/USGS Source : FEWS NET/USGS Source : FEWS NET/USGS FSAU’s Key Funding Agencies : FSAU’s Key Technical Partners : United States European Agency for Commission International Development FSAU Receives Technical and Managerial Support from FAO. For more Information contact [email protected] FSAU Monthly Food Security Report January 2004 GU AND KARAN 2003 CEREAL PRODUCTION SUMMARY OF INTER-AGENCY RAPID ASSESSEMENT IN SOMALILAND FINDINGS OF THE DROUGHT STRICKEN REGION IN THE HAWD OF TODGHEER PASTORAL ZONE · The average cereal production of Somaliland amounts to During November, Somaliland authorities and relief agencies about 17,000 MT per year (roughly 6% of the annual cereal working in the Hawd of Toghdeer appealed for assistance for the production of Somalia). Togdheer drought stricken pastoral area. This area had suffered · The total Gu/Karan 2003 crop production was very good and poor Gu 2003 rains and failed Deyr 2003 rains. Subsequently, the the highest recorded figure in post-war years. The season SACB FSRDC and an HRG called on the FSAU to take the technical produced 24,915 Mt of sorghum (88%) and 3,289 Mt of lead in an inter-agency assessment to determine how serious the maize (12%). situation was likely to become. As a result, the FSAU, SC-UK, FEWS- · Gabiley made a significant contribution to this total figure. An Net, Oxfam, COOPI, VETAID and relevant Somaliland Ministries par- estimated 20,100 MT (71%). For in depth technical analysis ticipated in a rapid field assessment to the Hawd of Toghdeer pas- on the successful harvest. Please contact : [email protected] toral zone from 24-28 December. for the his Gu/Karan 2003 Somaliland Cereal Production The map below (Figure 5) shows the most affected area of Togh- Report. deer region. It is estimated that up to 10,000 households in this area, mainly the pastoral poor group and lower levels of the middle Figure 4 : Agro-Pastoral Zones in Somaliland pastoral wealth group, will experience food shortages. Two consecu- ZE Y L A C tive seasons of poor rainfall have led to a deterioration in livestock DJIB O UT I # LA S Q O RA # body condition, in turn undermining livestock production (milk and meat) and access to income options (declining livestock prices). LUG H A Y E # B A N H A # CE ER IG A A B O # BE RB E RA # The middle and better off groups had already migrated out of the BA K I # drought area to areas where grazing is better and have managed to B OR A M A S H E I K H CE E L A FW E Y N # # # GA B IL E Y preserve their livestock, but the poorer pastoralists were unable to # HA R G E Y SA # BU R CO # GA R A DA G OW DW E Y N E # pay transport costs to move their animals. During Jilaal these fami- # X UD U N TA L E # # lies are likely to face a food deficit and the situation will require CA Y N A B O # close monitoring. For further details of the three stages of sug- gested interventions and a copy of the inter-agency rapid assess- # LA S CA A N O O D S OMA LI L A N D F O O D E CO N O M Y A R E A S /G R OU P S # G A B U U H O O DL E Agr o- p a st or a l( hig h p o te ntiq a l cr o p p r od u ctio n ) # ment report (to be released at the HRG meeting on 20 Jan), please Agr o- p a st or a l( lo w p ote n tia l c rop p ro du ctio n) contact [email protected]. Pas to ra l Source : FSAU B U R TI N LE # Figure 5 : Map showing Togdheer Region Togdheer Region RESULTS FROM FIRST ROUND OF SOOL PLATEAU SURVEILLANCE Results from the first round of Sool Plateau surveillance are now available. These statistics will be compared with statistics from the second round of surveillance, due to take place in January (security permitting). Trend monitoring and in depth analysis will be provided by the FSAU in February. For information on results from the first Source : FSAU Area of Concern round of surveillance, please contact [email protected] Burao HIGHLIGHTS FROM FSAU NUTRITION UPDATE Terms of Trade in Burao Market - Togdheer Region In Sool Plateau, the ongoing sentinel nutritional surveillance Maintaining good terms of trade between milk and/or livestock and indicates a worrying nutrition situation with an acute malnutrition cereals is critical for the survival of pastoral households, particularly rate of 18.9% (W/H <-2 z-score/oedema) (Dec 2003 Nutrition Up- in drought years and during the harsh, dry Jilaal season.