Aalborg Universitet Copenhagen Energy Vision A sustainable vision for bringing a Capital to 100% renewable energy Mathiesen, Brian Vad; Lund, Rasmus Søgaard; Connolly, David; Ridjan, Iva; Nielsen, Steffen Publication date: 2015 Document Version Early version, also known as pre-print Link to publication from Aalborg University Citation for published version (APA): Mathiesen, B. V., Lund, R. S., Connolly, D., Ridjan, I., & Nielsen, S. (2015). Copenhagen Energy Vision: A sustainable vision for bringing a Capital to 100% renewable energy. Department of Development and Planning, Aalborg University. General rights Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. ? Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research. ? You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain ? You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal ? Take down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us at [email protected] providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. Downloaded from vbn.aau.dk on: October 07, 2021 COPENHAGEN ENERGY VISION 2050 A sustainable vision for bringing a capital to 100% renewable energy Abstract The short-term goal for The City of COPENHAGEN ENERGY VISION 2050 Copenhagen is a CO2 neutral energy supply by A sustainable vision for bringing a capital the year 2025, and the long-term vision for to 100% renewable energy Denmark is a 100% renewable energy (RE) supply by the year 2050. In this project, it is March, 2015 concluded that Copenhagen plays a key role in this transition. The long-term vision of 100% © The Authors RE can be achieved in a socio-economic and resource efficient way in Denmark, but local Aalborg University, Department of involvement is required to ensure the Development and Planning implementation of a Smart Energy System Brian Vad Mathiesen approach. A Smart Energy System perspective, which Rasmus Lund considers electricity, heating and transport, is David Connolly applied in this study using the EnergyPLAN model. The model simulates the electricity, Iva Ridjan heating, cooling, industrial, and transport sectors on an hourly basis and enables the Steffen Nielsen identification of new synergies between the Aalborg University sectors to 1) improve the efficiency of the energy system and 2) accommodate the short- Department of Development and term fluctuations in renewable energy Planning production. Based on results at the national level, some key recommendations can be made for Copenhagen, the Greater Copenhagen Area Publisher: and national policymakers. For example, key technologies that will be necessary in Department of Development and Planning Copenhagen in the coming years are heat Aalborg University savings in buildings, large-scale heat pumps, Vestre Havnepromenade 5 9000 Aalborg flexible fuel efficient power plants, low- Denmark temperature district heating, more public transport, and the electrification of the ISBN 978-87-91404-67-2 transport sector. Recommendations such as these will support the development towards 100% RE in 2050, thus avoiding potential pitfalls associated with the short-term goals. Acknowledgement This project was partially financed by The City of Copenhagen and 4DH – an International Research Centre of 4th Generation District Heating (www.4dh.dk) supported by Innovation Fund Denmark. The Smart Energy System concept presented in this study has been continuously developed by the Sustainable Energy Planning Research Group at Aalborg University over the past 20 years under numerous projects, and is still being further developed (www.smartenergysystems.eu). Contents Preface ................................................................................................................................................... i List of abbreviations ............................................................................................................................... ii 1 Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................... iii 1.1 Copenhagen in a National 100% Renewable Energy Context ............................................................ v 1.1.1 Implementation of Renewable Energy Technology for heating and electricity supplies ......... vii 1.1.2 Integration of Energy Sectors .................................................................................................... xi 1.1.3 Transport in a renewable energy context in Copenhagen ...................................................... xiii 1.2 Strategic Energy Planning in Copenhagen ........................................................................................ xv 1.3 Roadmap for The City of Copenhagen ............................................................................................ xvi 1.3.1 Initiatives that can begin today .............................................................................................. xvii 1.3.2 Initiatives between 2020 and 2030 ....................................................................................... xviii 1.3.3 Initiatives between 2030 and 2050 ....................................................................................... xviii 2 Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 1 2.1 Local Energy Systems in a National Perspective ............................................................................... 1 2.2 Methodology ..................................................................................................................................... 1 2.2.1 Energy Systems Analyses Using EnergyPLAN ............................................................................ 3 2.2.2 Application of The Heat Atlas to The City of Copenhagen ........................................................ 5 2.2.3 Technological development and renewable energy scenarios in CEESA .................................. 6 3 Profiling the Copenhagen System .................................................................................................... 9 3.1 Current Status on Energy Supply and Demand ................................................................................. 9 3.1.1 Energy Consumption ................................................................................................................. 9 3.1.2 Electricity and Heat Production ............................................................................................... 10 3.1.3 Transport ................................................................................................................................. 12 3.2 CPH 2025 Climate Plan .................................................................................................................... 13 3.2.1 Background of the CPH 2025 Climate Plan.............................................................................. 13 3.2.2 Initiatives for CO2 Emission Reductions ................................................................................... 13 3.3 Key Focus Areas for Copenhagen Towards 100% Renewable Energy ............................................. 15 3.3.1 The Type of Power Plant in Renewable Energy Systems ......................................................... 15 3.3.2 Heat Demand Reductions in the Building Stock ...................................................................... 15 3.3.3 Transport Pathways towards Renewable Energy .................................................................... 15 4 CEESA: A 100% Renewable Scenario for Denmark – A National Perspective .................................... 16 4.1 The Role of Power Plants in Future Energy Systems ....................................................................... 20 4.1.1 Importance to the Energy System in the Greater Copenhagen Area ...................................... 26 4.2 Heat Supply in Future Energy Systems ............................................................................................ 27 4.2.1 Importance to the Energy System in the Greater Copenhagen Area ...................................... 29 4.3 Biomass, Electricity and Gas for Transport in Renewable Energy Systems ..................................... 30 4.3.1 Importance to the Energy System in the Greater Copenhagen Area ...................................... 36 5 The Role of Copenhagen in a 100% Renewable Energy System ....................................................... 37 5.1 A Reference Scenario for The Greater Copenhagen Area in 2025 .................................................. 37 5.2 Level of ambition for renewable energy production capacities ..................................................... 40 5.3 Power Plants in The Greater Copenhagen Area in a 100% renewable energy system ................... 41 5.4 Heat saving potential in The City of Copenhagen ........................................................................... 43 5.4.1 The building stock .................................................................................................................... 43 5.4.2 The