Airfinance Journal July/August 2019 Airfinance Journal July/August July/August 2019 July/August Building BUILDING MUSCLE muscle China Aircraft Leasing aims to be a top-five lessor by 2025, CEO Mike Poon explains ISSUE no. 406 ISSUE no. 2019 LEGAL GUIDE | PARIS AIR SHOW REVIEW AIRFINANCE JOURNAL AWARDS 2018 Real Assets: Korea 24 September 2019 Seoul, South Korea Real Assets: Korea is designed to explore and explain infrastructure and aircraft role as high-yielding assets in the portfolios of Korean investors, whether LPs, GPs or direct/equity investors. Organised and informed by the market-leading news and data sources Airfinance Journal and IJGlobal, this event aims to arm Korean investors with the knowledge and relationships they need to seize opportunity and avoid pitfalls of these alternatives. Get more info: http://bit.ly/realassetskorea Sponsorship opportunities Contact Kenneth Yu at kenneth.yu@airfinancejournal.com or +852 2842 6960 airfinancejournal.com anews @AirfinanceNews Airfinance Journal Editor’s letter Fightback starts for 737 Max IAG’s commitment stole the Paris air show, but concerns remain, including those about the Boeing aircraft’s residual values, writes Olivier Bonnassies. n many ways the 53rd Paris air show was similar to adding: “Willie Walsh [IAG chief executive officer] Iprevious years: it featured orders and launches of has been a loyal Boeing partner and is not afraid new models, including the Airbus A321XLR and the to go against the grain. And he felt for the good ATR42-600S. A few days earlier, Mitsubishi Aircraft of the industry and for his airlines, it was worth had officially announced its SpaceJet family of announcing now, when people are doubting the aircraft, which features the M90 (previously known Max.” by the developmental designation of MRJ90) and a Financiers, recently briefed by Boeing over an new member, the M100. update on the 737 Max programme, have growing However, two things stood out this time: fewer concerns on two points: this year’s budget capacity firm orders and the increasingly complicated (short term) and residual values (long term). Real Assets: and confusing terminology used by the original One banking source says it has a pipeline of equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and their more than 10 aircraft, which had been mandated for customers. Keen to demonstrate as strong a deal 2019. According to the banker, the Max deliveries Korea as possible, OEM PR departments are wielding the were part of different structures. Because of the term “commitment” very loosely. grounding and no deliveries since March, the bank This is probably because there have been fewer is now “under budget” for the year. firm order announcements at air shows over the Another banking source is in the same position. past three years. In the past it was reasonably Both banking sources agree that the situation is 24 September 2019 clear what was an order and what was something serious but have confidence in the US manufacturer else, be it a memorandum of understanding, letter to come up with a solution. Seoul, South Korea of intent or options and purchase options – terms Assuming the Max returns to service this year we are used to. But this year’s announcements or early next year, the main question is now on have featured new constructions, such as “plan to residual values. extend… by adding”, “commitment to purchase”, “Risk is an issue for bankers,” says another Real Assets: Korea is designed to explore and explain “intent to acquire” and “memorandum of source. “Managing the risk of an aircraft whose agreement”, leaving the community mystified as to future is potentially uncertain could be problematic,” infrastructure and aircraft role as high-yielding assets in the what has actually been agreed. he says. The A321XLR may have recorded lots of “The banks have financed the 737 product line portfolios of Korean investors, whether LPs, GPs or direct/equity commitments in Paris but the talk of the show was over the years. This has led to a high degree of investors. Organised and informed by the market-leading news the meaning of the International Airline Group (IAG) comfort because of the market acceptance and commitment for up to 200 Boeing Max aircraft, a orderbook of the programme,” he says. “It also led and data sources Airfinance Journal and IJGlobal, this event aims mix of 737 Max 8 and Max 10 aircraft delivering to higher loan-to-values,” he adds. to arm Korean investors with the knowledge and relationships they between 2023 and 2027. The banker has exposure through a lessor’s In fairness, no one saw this coming. There portfolio, but is more concerned about residual need to seize opportunity and avoid pitfalls of these alternatives. were rumours, before the air show, that one values, especially if a new Boeing product comes to announcement could feature the Max model. market by 2035. Boeing’s top priority is to “fix” the Max problems Another banker is also worried about the and make sure it gets recertified soon. Therefore, effect on the residual values. “We have different an order announcement (or commitment, as it scenarios: one, the US authorities recertify the seems to be the fashion these days) at the air aircraft first and only US carriers start to operate the show, if any, had to send a strong message to aircraft, in which case values will be impacted; two, the marketplace: top-tier group of airlines, huge all authorities recertify the aircraft at the same time Get more info: http://bit.ly/realassetskorea number of aircraft. so the impact on values will be less; and three, all Boeing did even better to make sure it will be authorities recertify the aircraft but then a question the “announcement of the air show”: stealing remains on an accelerated transition to a new an Airbus narrowbody customer. Airfinance narrowbody aircraft. In that scenario, values will be Journal understands that Airbus was not aware impacted,” he says. Sponsorship opportunities of this and no request for proposal was sent to The banker adds: “The Boeing Max family has Contact Kenneth Yu at kenneth.yu@airfinancejournal.com or manufacturers. Terms on the pricing and the Boeing sold very well and assuming that deliveries resume commercial service agreement were no doubt soon and Boeing delivers its orderbook, the +852 2842 6960 attractive, but one source was not surprised by the deliveries timeframe will be not before 2030. But announcement. “It was not a desperation move by how about if some customers cancel, or switch part Willie Walsh but a critical move,” says the source, of their orderbook to a new-generation aircraft?” airfinancejournal.com anews @AirfinanceNews Airfinance Journal www.airfinancejournal.com 3 Contents Cover story Features Building Muscle New name, new targets Aircraft comparison: The 70- Mike Poon, chief executive officer of China 8 41 seat market, a crowded niche Aircraft Leasing (CALC), tells Dominic Lalk Embraer is confident it will secure more The market for 70-seat aircraft is modest in that the group aims to be among the top orders in the Asia-Pacific region after size, but there is no shortage of competitors. five lessors by 2025. rebranding as Boeing Brasil, chief executive Geoff Hearn looks at the prospects for the officer John Slattery tells Dominic Lalk. various models on offer. 34 Airfinance Journal Global Data 11 Awards 2018 43 Airfinance Journal reveals the winners of our prestigious annual awards, recognising Pilarski the most innovative deals, individuals and 46 teams in aviation finance. Valued for their independence and transparency, our awards represent the market-leading deals rated on innovation, timing, size, complexity, ability to 47 Guide to Aviation overcome obstacles and setting new industry benchmarks. Lawyers 2019 Legal moves 2018/19 Airfinance Journal China 48 28 Awards 2018 Airfinance Journal reveals the winners of our China awards, recognising the most Legal Survey 2019 innovative deals, individuals and teams in 50 aviation finance. Airfinance Journal Legal Survey is the most comprehensive survey of its type and crucially offers real insight into the aviation CSAL sets sights on mature market. 37 aircraft News analysis As an airline-background lessor, China Rising Stars Southern Air Leasing has a natural 61 Liquidation and consolidation responsibility to serve its parent, its general manager, Feng Xu, tells Elsie Guan. Airfinance Journal recognises seven of the 6 are unavoidable most promising legal associates for 2018. Hopes of a Jet Airways revival are fading after lenders launched bankruptcy and insolvency Airbus focuses on safety and proceedings. Experts are saying flag carrier 39 environment An introduction to the Global Air India could be next. 65 Aircraft Trading System The European manufacturer is prospering, (GATS) but challenges loom. Geoff Hearn reports Paris 2019 round-up on the company’s efforts to future-proof its By David Berkery, partner, A&L Goodbody 9 business. Asia finance editor Managing director, The Airline Analyst Divisional CEO No part of this magazine can be reproduced Dominic Lalk Mike Duff Jeffrey Davis without the written permission of the +852 2842 6941 +44 (0)207 779 8058 Publisher. The Airfinance Journal Ltd. [email protected] [email protected] Production editor Registered in the United Kingdom 1432333 Tim Huxford (ISSN 0143-2257). Greater China reporter Advertisement manager Airfinance Journal (USPS No: 022-554) 管沁雨 (GUAN Qinyu); Elsie Guan Chris Gardner Subscriptions / Conferences Hotline is a full service business website and +852 2842 6918 +44 (0)207 779 8231 +44 (0)207 779 8999 / +1 212 224 3570 e-news facility with printed supplements [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] for $3,565/€2,854/ £2,095* a year by Euromoney Institutional Investor PLC. Consulting editor Head of Sales Customer Services (*£ and € prices are subject to VAT).