THE ELECTION OF 2018 CHANGE OR MORE OF THE SAME? Randall E. Adkins, Ph.D. Associate Dean, College of Arts & Sciences Professor, Department of Political Science 402.554.2624 [email protected] 2018: CONTINUITY OR CHANGE? "But if it does happen [impeachment], it's your fault, because you didn't go out to vote. OK? You didn't go out to vote." MIDTERM GAINS/LOSSES BY PRESIDENT -120 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 20 0 1862 1870 1878 1886 1894 1902 1910 1918 ’ 1926 S PARTY IN HOUSE ELECTIONS, 1862 1934 1942 1950 1958 1966 1974 1982 1990 1998 2006 - 2014 MIDTERM GAINS/LOSSES BY PRESIDENT -15 -10 10 15 -5 0 5 1862 1870 1878 1886 1894 1902 1910 1918 ’ 1926 PARTYSENATE IN ELECTIONS,1862 S 1934 1942 1950 1958 1966 1974 1982 1990 1998 2006 - 2014 FIRST TERM MIDTERM ELECTIONS House Seats Gained/Lost Senate Seats Gained/Lost 1954 -18 -1 1962 -5 +3 1970 -12 +3 1978 -15 -3 1982 -26 +1 1990 -7 -1 1994 -54 -10 2002 +8 +1 2010 -63 -6 SECOND TERM MIDTERM ELECTIONS House Seats Gained/Lost Senate Seats Gained/Lost 1958 -47 -13 1966 -47 -4 1974 -48 -5 1986 -5 -8 1998 +4 0 2006 -30 -6 2014 -13 -9 MACRO-LEVEL FACTORS • In 2018, 41.9% approve of the job that President Trump is doing. MACRO-LEVEL FACTORS • In 2018, 41.9% approve of the job that President Trump is doing. • In 2010, 45% approved of the job that President Obama was doing. MACRO-LEVEL FACTORS • In 2018, 41.9% approve of the job that President Trump is doing. • In 2010, 45% approved of the job that President Obama was doing. • In 2002, 63% approved of the job that President Bush was doing. MACRO-LEVEL FACTORS • In 2018, 38.9% said the country was headed in the right direction and 53.7% said the country was off on the wrong track. MACRO-LEVEL FACTORS • In 2018, 38.9% said the country was headed in the right direction and 53.7% said the country was off on the wrong track. • In 2010, 22% said the country was headed in the right direction and 75% said the country was off on the wrong track. MACRO-LEVEL FACTORS • In 2018, 38.9% said the country was headed in the right direction and 53.7% said the country was off on the wrong track. • In 2010, 22% said the country was headed in the right direction and 75% said the country was off on the wrong track. • In 2002, 48% said the country was headed in the right direction and 47% said the country was off on the wrong track. MACRO-LEVEL FACTORS • In 2018,18.8% approve of the job that Congress is doing. MACRO-LEVEL FACTORS • In 2018,18.8% approve of the job that Congress is doing. • In 2010, 17% approved of the job that Congress was doing. MACRO-LEVEL FACTORS • In 2018,18.8% approve of the job that Congress is doing. • In 2010, 17% approved of the job that Congress was doing. • In 2002, 50% approved of the job that Congress was doing. MACRO-LEVEL FACTORS • In 2018, Democrats lead Republicans in the generic congressional ballot 47.3-39.5%. MACRO-LEVEL FACTORS • In 2018, Democrats lead Republicans in the generic congressional ballot 47.3-39.5%. • In 2010, Republicans led Democrats in the generic congressional ballot 50.7-41.3%. MACRO-LEVEL FACTORS • In 2018, Democrats lead Republicans in the generic congressional ballot 47.3-39.5%. • In 2010, Republicans led Democrats in the generic congressional ballot 50.7-41.3%. • In 2002, Republicans led Democrats in the generic congressional ballot 47.7-46.0%. SENATE ELECTIONS Current Democratic Seats Current Republican Seats Prior to the Election 47(+2 Independents) 51 CA, CT, DE, HI, MA, MD, ME, Safe Democratic MN, NM, NY, RI, VA, VT, WA Likely Democratic MI, MT, NJ, PA, WI Leaning Democratic MN, OH Toss Up FL, IN, MO, ND, WV AZ, NV, TN Leaning Republican TX Likely Republican MS, NE Safe Republican MS, UT, WY HOUSE ELECTIONS Democratic Seats Republican Seats Prior to the Election 193 237 Safe Democratic 180 -- Likely Democratic 8 3 Leaning Democratic 2 8 Toss Up 2 28 Leaning Republican 0 27 Likely Republican 1 26 Safe Republican -- 145 After the Election ? ? CHANGE OR MORE OF THE SAME? NEBRASKA 2ND DISTRICT 2018 Funds Raised Outside Money Kara Eastman $782,563 $46,110 Don Bacon $1,818,621 $787,844 Brad Ashford 137,602 (47.7%) $2,502,645 $3,675,598 Don Bacon 141,066 (48.9%) $1,604,219 $,820,416 Brad Ashford 81,720 (48.8%) $1,231,958 $1,522,592 Lee Terry 77,103 (46.0%) $3,106,288 $1,241,249 John Ewing 122,452 (48.8%) $617,755 $265,671 Lee Terry 128,307 (51.2%) $2,036,017 $7,403 www.unomaha.edu/psci .