Madagascar 2012 www.africaneconomicoutlook.org Madagascar The political crisis continued to affect Madagascar economically and socially in 2011 and gross domestic product (GDP) grew by a weak 0.6%. It should grow faster in 2012, by 2.4%, and in 2013, by 4.5%. The political crisis also slowed (and in some cases stopped) most public sector reforms. However, the budget deficit was contained at 1.3% of GDP in 2011 thanks to continuing spending austerity and should remain steady in 2012. Youth employment remains a big problem, with 5.9% of under-25s out of work, compared with an overall rate of 3.8%. Urban youths were more affected (8.9%) than those in the countryside (3.9%) but these low figures hide a rate of under-employment which is more explosive. The country has a national job support programme but the current political and institutional instability has prevented it from achieving its goals. Overview The political crisis continued in 2011, affecting the economy and society. Higher oil and food prices and poor rainfall also played their part and real GDP rose by only 0.6%, barely more than the 0.5% in 2010. The economy should expand, however, by 2.4% in 2012 and 4.5% in 2013, owing to hopes of a solution to the crisis after agreement on a road-map on 17 September 2011 and the strength of the mining sector. But the ongoing economic crisis in the euro area could undermine this momentum with a fall in demand for Madagascan goods and high unemployment in Europe that could reduce exports and affect the tourist industry. Continuing austerity kept the budget deficit to 1.3% of GDP in 2011 and it should be about the same in 2012. Consumer price inflation was high at 9.5% in 2011 because of increases in oil and food prices. The current account deficit shrank from 9.7% of GDP in 2010 to 3.4% in 2011 because of revived goods exports and a drop in imports arising from less economic activity. The deficit is expected to widen slightly to 4.4% in 2012 and 4.7% in 2013 with the gradual resumption of imports of goods as the political situation normalises. The weakness of the economy since the start of the political crisis has greatly affected living conditions and a 2010 household survey showed 76% of Madagascans were considered poor, up from 68% in 2005. The only Millennium Development Goal (MDG) the country will achieve is that for reducing the rate of HIV/AIDS. The household survey showed unemployment was fairly low (3.8%) but under-employment very high (67.2%) because of unsuitable jobs or the number of hours worked. Young people are most affected by this joblessness pattern. The government has a national employment policy PNE (Politique nationale d'emploi) being implemented through a national employment support programme PNSE (Programme national de soutien à l'emploi), but the current political and institutional uncertainty has prevented it from achieving its goals. So practical steps to help young people enter the jobs market are little known about and, in any case, assessment of their results is difficult for lack of data. The mismatch between training and employers’ needs, especially in the private sector, is a big problem and the process for seeking work is inefficient. With so many young people, getting them into jobs should be a major government concern and special programmes to do this should be launched when the political crisis is over. African Economic Outlook 2012 2 | © AfDB, OECD, UNDP, UNECA Figure 1: Real GDP growth (Southern) 12.5% 10% 7.5% 5% 2.5% Real Real GDP Growth (%) 0% -2.5% -5% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Real GDP growth (%) Southern Africa - Real GDP growth (%) Africa - Real GDP growth (%) Figures for 2010 are estimates; for 2011 and later are projections. http://dx.doi.org10.1787/888932619032 Table 1: Macroeconomic Indicators 2010 2011 2012 2013 Real GDP growth 0.5 0.6 2.4 4.5 Real GDP per capita growth -2.4 -2.3 -0.5 1.7 CPI inflation 9.2 9.5 8.3 8.2 Budget balance % GDP -0.9 -1.3 -1.3 -1.2 Current account % GDP -9.7 -3.4 -4.4 -4.7 Figures for 2010 are estimates; for 2011 and later are projections. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888932602407 African Economic Outlook 2012 3 | © AfDB, OECD, UNDP, UNECA Recent Developments & Prospects Table 2: GDP by Sector (percentage of GDP) 2006 2010 Agriculture, forestry, fishing & hunting 27.5 28 Mining and quarrying 0.2 0.2 of which oil -- Manufacturing 14.6 8.7 Electricity, gas and water 3.7 3.9 Construction 1.2 1.3 Wholesale and retail trade, hotels and restaurants 19.5 21 of which hotels and restaurants -- Transport, storage and communication 10.5 11 Finance, real estate and business services 1.1 1.7 Financial intermediation, real estate services, business and other service activities -- General government services 7.2 6.9 Public administration & defence; social security, education, health & social work -- Public administration, education, health -- Public administration, education, health & other social & personal services -- Other community, social & personal service activities -- Other services 14.5 17.3 Gross domestic product at basic prices / factor cost 100 100 Figures for 2010 are estimates; for 2011 and later are projections. http://dx.doi.org10.1787/888932621008 The economy grew an estimated 0.6% in 2011, only slightly more than 2010 (0.5%) and was driven by the secondary sector (up 2.7% over 2010) and the tertiary (up 2.1%). The primary sector shrank by 2.3% because of poor agricultural output resulting from sparse rainfall and several hurricanes. Mining remained one of the economy’s chief strengths and extractive industries grew 25.9%. The secondary sector’s best performers were beverages, paper and food-processing and in the tertiary sector banking, telecommunications and transport, supported by tourism,[1] which recovered in 2011 with a 14.8% rise in visitors (from 196 052 to 225 055). Overall investment fell to 14.9% of GDP in 2011 from 18.8% in 2010 as a result of of less development aid and the end of the building and installation phases of big mining projects. In real terms, the drop was 11.2% and also affected public and private investment (down 8% and 12% respectively). Total consumption by volume was slightly up (1.1%) but private consumption rose more (1.2%) than public (0.7%). Total consumption was 93% of GDP, down 2.7 percentage points from 2010, mainly because of private consumption dropping from 86.3% of GDP to 83.6%. Public consumption was steady at 9.5% of GDP (9.4% in 2010). The signing of the road-map agreement to end the political crisis on 17 September 2011 and the vigorous mining sector should boost growth to 2.4% in 2012 and 4.5% in 2013. Foreign aid (which funds 70% of government investment) will not completely resume in 2012.[2] If planned voting for a new parliament and president in 2012 is clean and not challenged, more aid could return in 2013 and with it an improved business climate for the private sector. Mining will be the chief engine of growth in 2012 and 2013 with production African Economic Outlook 2012 4 | © AfDB, OECD, UNDP, UNECA starting at the country’s biggest mine, at Ambatovy. The tertiary sector will benefit from revived tourism. Agricultural production will remain modest in 2012 and 2013 because of low rainfall and frequent hurricanes. Total investment is expected to grow 2.2% in 2012 (14.5% of GDP), and 8.6% (14.4%) in 2013. With spending on elections in 2012, estimated at MGA 45 billion (Madagascar ariary) or USD 22.5 million (US dollars), and after the economy has returned to normal in 2013, total consumption by volume should grow 1.3% in 2012 and 4.1% in 2013 to reach 93.7% of GDP. [1] Tourism figures are from the Tableau de bord de l’économie de Madagascar, Institut National de la Statistique, January 2012. [2] Aid will be needed however for the holding of elections. African Economic Outlook 2012 5 | © AfDB, OECD, UNDP, UNECA Macroeconomic Policy Fiscal Policy With direct external funding of the government reduced, the government continued budgetary austerity in 2011, but the deficit still widened slightly to 1.3% of GDP (from 0.9% in 2010). Priorities were the ministries of finance, education, health, decentralisation and agriculture, which got about 60% of the budget. Government revenue fell to 12.2% of GDP in 2011 from 13.3% in 2010 because of the drop in foreign aid and slower economic activity. Collection was 93.4% of the budgeted figure at the end of 2011 (96% for tax and 36.3% for non-tax). Total spending was 13.5% of GDP (14.1% in 2010). Budget restraints meant priority went to current spending (10.2% of GDP) over investment spending (3.3%). Average spending commitment in the general budget was 89.3% at the end of 2011, including 70.2% for investment. Higher world oil prices forced the government to subsidise oil companies[3] to the tune of USD 33.7 million (0.4% of GDP) to keep pump prices steady, though not all of it was paid, which weakened the financial situation of many oil firms. The 2011 budget deficit was funded by disbursements from ongoing projects and by recourse to the banking system by auctioning treasury bonds. The 2012 budget continues the policy of rigour, with tax breaks to encourage investment in renewable energy.