UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE www.usip.org SPECIAL REPORT 1200 17th Street NW • Washington, DC 20036 • 202.457.1700 • fax 202.429.6063 ABOUT THE REPORT Mona Yacoubian Since the end of the Cold War, European security concerns have focused increasingly on the potential for instability on Europe’s southern flank. In 1995, the European Union developed a framework Promoting Middle East Democracy for cooperation with the southern Mediterranean nations. These efforts have included some relatively ineffective programs to promote democracy in European Initiatives the region. In the aftermath of 9/11, the goal of encouraging the development of Middle East democracy has acquired greater urgency, not least in the eyes of the United States, which has bolstered its own efforts to spur democratic reform. Summary As the United States moves forward in its quest to promote reform in the Middle East, it will be • With the end of the Cold War, major geopolitical shifts prompted southern Europe to important to assess the effectiveness of other reorient its strategic landscape toward the southern Mediterranean. From a European democracy-promotion activities, including those vantage point, the Mediterranean’s strategic importance centers on migration, energy undertaken by European counterparts. This report seeks to inform discussion in U.S. policymaking dependence, security/counterterrorism, and trade. circles by offering an assessment of multilateral • Established in November 1995, the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership (EMP), also known European democracy-promotion efforts in the as the Barcelona Process, was intended to be Europe’s answer to growing concerns Middle East. A forthcoming companion paper will about instability on its southern flank. The EMP has provided a framework for coopera- illuminate major reform initiatives originating tion between EU members and their twelve Mediterranean partners. The partnership from within the Arab world. consists of a series of bilateral association agreements that cover trade, development, This report was written by Mona and reform issues. To date, all of the Mediterranean partners except Syria have signed Yacoubian, a special adviser to the United States association agreements. Institute of Peace’s Special Initiative on the Muslim World, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, • Aside from their primary goal of promoting economic reform and trade, the European and an adjunct fellow at the Center for Strategic and Union’s association agreements seek to encourage political reform. However, the effort International Studies. to spur political reform has yielded only limited results, not least because the Euro- The views expressed in this report do not necessarily pean Union has adopted a long-term, cautious approach in the name of preserving reflect views of the United States Institute of Peace, which short-term stability. does not advocate specific policy positions. • By and large, the European Union (like the United States) has not translated its calls SPECIAL REPORT 127 OCTOBER 2004 for the promotion of democracy and human rights into concrete action. A variety of reasons explain this failure, including differing interests among EU members, the great CONTENTS reluctance of EU members to use conditionality, and the fact that the original intent of the Barcelona Process was not to promote political reform. Introduction 2 • Beginning in 2000, efforts have focused on reinvigorating the Barcelona Process The Evolution of the Barcelona Process 3 by providing for a more vigorous and coherent democracy-promotion strategy. Other European Democracy-Promotion Initiatives 5 European strategists have sought to link European policy in the Mediterranean Assessing the Impact of the Barcelona Process 7 to the wider Middle East as well as to post-enlargement Wider Europe. Looking beyond Barcelona 8 • Still, a successful European democracy-promotion policy in the Middle East is far from The Transatlantic Dimension: assured. Several obstacles could impede effective implementation. First, neither the Complementarities and Frictions 12 European Union nor its individual member states have demonstrated sustained com- Whither Transatlantic Cooperation? 13 mitment to using conditionality as an instrument for reform. Second, governments in the region have not signaled their willingness to pursue genuine reform. Third, European democracy-promotion efforts risk being drowned in a sea of bureaucracy. ABOUT THE INSTITUTE Success depends on the European Union and its regional partners overcoming all The United States Institute of Peace is an three of these obstacles. independent, nonpartisan federal institution • Sustained transatlantic cooperation could contribute significantly to efforts to pro- created by Congress to promote the prevention, mote democratic reform in the Middle East. While direct cooperation in the region management, and peaceful resolution of interna- remains a distant prospect, enhanced consultation, via a variety of venues, would tional conflicts. Established in 1984, the Institute make a significant contribution toward democracy promotion in the Middle East. meets its congressional mandate through an array of programs, including research grants, fellow- ships, professional training, education programs from high school through graduate school, Introduction conferences and workshops, library services, and publications. The Institute’s Board of Directors is In the wake of the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the United States, calls for appointed by the President of the United States reform in the Arab world have reverberated across the globe. Less than a year after the and confirmed by the Senate. attacks, in July 2002, a group of Arab intellectuals, under the auspices of the United Nations, issued the first Arab Human Development Report. In sobering detail, the study BOARD OF DIRECTORS chronicled the Arab world’s long-standing political, economic, and social ills. Spe- • J. Robinson West (Chairman), Chairman, PFC Energy, cifically, it identified three critical deficits facing all Arab countries: freedom, women’s Washington, D.C. • María Otero (Vice Chairman), President, empowerment, and knowledge. The study made an impassioned plea for transforming ACCION International, Boston, Mass. • Betty F. Bumpers, the region through reform. Founder and former President, Peace Links, Washington, The United States and Europe responded with their own calls for promoting reform in the D.C. • Holly J. Burkhalter, Advocacy Director, Physicians region. In December 2002 U.S. secretary of state Colin Powell announced the Middle East for Human Rights, Washington, D.C. • Chester A. Crocker, Partnership Initiative, which centers on the promotion of reform in the Middle East. More James R. Schlesinger Professor of Strategic Studies, School recently, the G-8 unveiled the “Partnership for Progress and a Common Future” with the of Foreign Service, Georgetown University • Laurie S. broader Middle East and North Africa. The G-8 initiative underscores the need for multilateral Fulton, Williams and Connolly, Washington, D.C. • Charles cooperation as well as the importance of reform efforts emanating from the region. Horner, Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute, Washington, The June 2004 G-8 summit demonstrated transatlantic consensus on the overarching D.C. • Stephen D. Krasner, Graham H. Stuart Professor goals of democracy promotion and reform in the broader Middle East and North Africa. of International Relations, Stanford University • Seymour Both sides of the Atlantic view the promotion of reform as crucial for their security Martin Lipset, Hazel Professor of Public Policy, George as well as for the long-term stability of the region, where both have vital interests at Mason University • Mora L. McLean, Esq., President, stake. However, key differences exist between U.S. and European thinking on how best Africa-America Institute, New York, N.Y. • Daniel Pipes, to achieve this goal. At the same time, important convergences of interest underscore Director, Middle East Forum, Philadelphia, Pa. the unexploited potential for greater transatlantic cooperation. To date, transatlantic • Barbara W. Snelling, former State Senator and former cooperation has been minimal and largely ad hoc in nature; concrete progress remains Lieutenant Governor, Shelburne, Vt. limited. Given the long-term challenge ahead, the transatlantic community will need to resolve these differences in order to work together effectively toward the common goal MEMBERS EX OFFICIO of Middle East reform. • Arthur E. Dewey, Assistant Secretary of State for It is important, therefore, to understand the nature of European policies and programs Population, Refugees, and Migration • Michael M. Dunn, geared toward democracy promotion in the Middle East to determine areas of comple- Lieutenant General, U.S. Air Force; President, National mentarity as well as areas of friction. Surprisingly little is known of European efforts on Defense University • Peter W. Rodman, Assistant this side of the Atlantic outside of a very small and specialized community. Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs This report examines the European Union’s multilateral engagement with the Arab • Richard H. Solomon, President, United States world in the area of democracy promotion. It reviews the European Union’s most sig- Institute of Peace (nonvoting) nificant reform-promotion efforts in both the Mediterranean and the wider Middle East. After assessing these efforts, the report concludes