ORSAM Policy Brief No: 80 / December 2018 2018 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS AND THE FUTURE OF THE KRG BİLGAY DUMAN ORSAM Copyright Ankara - TURKEY ORSAM © 2018 Content of this publication is copyrighted to ORSAM. Except reasonable and partial quotation and use under the Act No. 5846, Law on Intellectual and Artistic Works, via proper citation, the content may not be used or re-published without prior permission by ORSAM. The views ex - pressed in this publication reflect only the opinions of its authors and do not represent the institu - tional opinion of ORSAM. Center for Middle Eastern Studies Adress : Mustafa Kemal Mah. 2128 Sk. No: 3 Çankaya, ANKARA Phone: +90 (312) 430 26 09 Faks: +90 (312) 430 39 48 Email: [email protected] Photos: Associated Press Policy Brief No:80 ORSAM POLICY BRIEF 2018 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS AND THE FUTURE OF THE KRG About the Author Bilgay Duman Bilgay Duman has been carrying on his doctoral study at Abant İzzet Baysal University, Department of International Relations Ph.D Program. He has frequently carried out field studies in the Middle East. He took part in international observer teams and served as UN electoral observer during the elections in Iraq and Afghanistan. He continues to serve as Iraq Studies Coordinator in ORSAM. December 2018 orsam.org.tr 2 2018 Parliamentary Elections and the Future of the KRG Introduction litical problems, the security situation, the threat of ISIS and financial difficulties. Following long-lasting debates and a one- year delay in the Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Gov - On May 8, 2018, the KRG’s Prime Minister ernment (KRG), regional parliamentary elections Nechirvan Barzani announced a rescheduled were held on September 30, 2018. KRG’s dy - parliamentary elections for September 30, 2018. namics in the last 5 years seem to influence the The majority of the political groups outside the consequences that are drawn from the 2018 Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) took a stand elections. The most important concrete outcome for a re-postponement of the elections arguing of the last 5 years was that, unlike the 2009 and that the KRG was not ready. The most significant 2013 elections, the KRG presidential elections party among the political groups that wanted to were not carried out with the parliamentary elec - postpone the elections was the Patriotic Union tions. In the post-election period, the presidential of Kurdistan (PUK). Nevertheless, the PUK post of the KRG was abolished and its duties made preparations for the elections. After the were transferred to the Prime Ministry and to elections had been held in the KRG Parliament the Parliament. On the other hand, one of the on September 30, 2018, the IHERC announced most substantial changes that the 2018 elections its timetable for elections. According to the brought was the voter turnout. The rate of par - timetable, the 20-day propaganda period was to ticipation in the elections fell to 58 percent with start on September 11 and end on 30 September a 15 percent loss compared to the last parlia - 2018. mentary elections in the KRG. This rate remained below the participation compared to the Iraqi Despite the expectation for the elections to parliamentary elections held on May 12, 2018. be postponed, special ballot boxes were set up In this sense, it is concurred on that the Kurdish on September 28-29, 2018 in order for the people in Iraq lost hope and abandoned their ex - security forces to be able to vote. On September pectations over about the political process. For 30, the elections were held with the participation what took place before and after the elections of voters. Unlike the Iraqi parliamentary elections, revealed the situation of the political process in the whole of the KRG is considered the con - the KRG. stituency. In this sense, the voters were able to vote for any candidate in any province. The Iraqi Constitution rules that the parlia - mentary elections are held every four years. In KRG’s independence referendum and Iraqi this regard, the Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Gov - Parliamentary Elections following the military ernment (KRG) conducts the elections in its intervention of the federal government in the own parliament consisting of 111 seats every “controversial regions” reveals the stance of four years as well. Hence, although the KRG constituency towards politics. The withdrawal parliamentary elections were scheduled to be of political participation can be observed from a held in 2017, it was postponed due to the inde - comparison of 2013 and 2018 KRG Parliamentary pendence referendum in the KRG. Then, the In - Elections. dependent High Elections and Referendum Com - mission (IHERC) announced that the election is Elections Turnout (%) scheduled for October 24, 2017. However, the elections were postponed indefinitely on the grounds of political parties have failed to nominate 2013 KRG Parliamentary Elections 73 candidates within the identified period of time. Upon delaying elections, the KRG extended the 2018 KRG Parliamentary Elections 58 mandate of the parliament based on current po - Policy Brief No:80 2018 Parliamentary Elections and the Future of the KRG 3 Number of ing the elections. It’s possible to say that, final Party name Candidates results of voted parties will therefore no longer reflect the public opinion due to the assumption Kurdistan Democratic Party 100 that the elections were fraudulent. Patriotic Union of Kurdistan 100 The results of the 2018 KRG Parliamentary Gorran (Change) 100 Elections were officially announced by the IHERC on October 20, 2018. The tables below Coalition of Democracy and Justice 100 reveal the number of seats won by the parties. Serdem (Modern) Coalition 100 The dynamics experienced by the KRG in Alliance towards Reforms 61 the last 5 years seem to be effective and its New Generation Movement 50 repercussions can be observed in the 2018 elec - tions. The most crucial concrete outcome of the Kurdistan Islamic Movement 45 last 5 years, unlike the 2009 and 2013 elections, Kurdistan Communist Party (Azadi) 43 is that the KRG presidential elections were not carried out with the parliamentary elections. In Other 74 the post-election period in KRG, the presidential Total 773 post in the KRG was abolished and its duties In particular, during the special voting where the security forces are elected, the situation regarding the quota chairs prevailed. Because, the quota chairs are assigned by the votes passed through the peshmerga and public security forces under the KDP control. The intervention of the security forces in the were transferred to the Prime Ministry and to election centers was shared in the media. Again, the Parliament. On the other hand, one of the according to the photos and video footages on most substantial changes regarding the 2018 social media, while voting was continuing, it elections was the voter turnout. The rates of was seen that the ballot officers and party repre - participation in the elections in Erbil, Duhok, sentatives were battered by the security forces. and Sulaymaniyah were respectively 58, 61 and Besides, photos of those who forge multiple 51 percent. Hence, with the Iraqi presidential identity cards were spread all over in social elections held on May 12, 2018, the rate of par - media platforms. ticipation in the KRG elections is declining. However, these figures should be taken into ac - The number of votes cast is explained in the count by taking into account false and invalid table below. However, the province-based par - voting. As a matter of fact, almost all parties ac - ticipation rates have been increased by 10 percent cused the other parties of fraud immediately compared to the statement made upon the closure after the elections. Moreover, the New Generation of ballots. Then, the political parties joining the and Gorran announced that they would not elections asserted that elections were compromised accept the election results if the IHERC does due to the false identity cards. Gorran and the not correct the fraudulent situation in the election New Generation Movement announced that they results. However, this is not very different from would not accept the election results unless the the previous elections. Apart from the KDP, the IHERC compensates for the inconveniences dur - PUK and Islamist parties did not raise a big ob - orsam.org.tr 4 2018 Parliamentary Elections and the Future of the KRG Province Number of votes Number Number of # List List of Seats Erbil 755,577 (Turkmen) Number Votes Obtained Duhok 487,429 Turkmen Sulaymaniyah 886,840 1 Development 215 3.318 2 Party Total 2,129,846 Turkmen 2 Reform Party 258 3.125 1 List Number Number of # List Iraqi Turkmen Number of votes seats 3 Front 272 1.545 1 Kurdistan 4 National List 224 885 1 1 Democratic 183 688.070 45 Party 5 We Turkmen 246 846 0 Patriotic Union 6 Erbil Turkmen 239 760 0 2 105 319.912 21 Coalition of Kurdistan Erbil Turkmen 7 List 267 695 0 3 Gorran 148 186.903 12 Turkmen New Generation 8 Democratic 203 298 0 4 134 127.115 8 Movement Movement Total - 11.472 5 5 Komal 194 109.494 7 Azadi List 6 164 86.063 1 Number Number of (Communist) # List List of Seats (Christian) Number Votes Obtained 7 Reform List 119 79.912 5 National Unity 1 368 8.088 3 Coalition Serdem List 8 127 15.434 1 (Socialist) Chaldean, Syriac, 2 Assyrian, 344 2.963 1 Popular Council Kurdistan 9 156 3.628 0 Lawyers’ Party 3 Rafidain List 306 2.626 1 Christian 4 384 238 0 Coalition of Democratic List 10 Democracy and 172 2.983 0 Children of 5 317 108 0 Justice Nahrain Total - 1.619.514 100 Total - 14.023 5 N umber of # C andidate(Armenian) L ist Number N umber of Seats Obtained V otes 1 Aram Bozo Hamo 542 611 0 2 Yervent Nisan Marcos 489 590 0 3 Fahik Kamal Seranian 497 590 1 4 Adkar Hakob 423 439 0 5 Morad Mardros Wartan 476 425 0 6 Nobar Sypar Qarib 408 290 0 Total - 2.945 1 Policy Brief No:80 2018 Parliamentary Elections and the Future of the KRG 5 jection.