NORTH KOREA CHRONOLOGY 2008 Northeast Asia Cooperative Security Project Social Science Research Council This work carries a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 License. This license permits you to copy, distribute, and display this work as long as you mention and link back to the Social Science Research Council, attribute the work appropriately (including both author and title), and do not adapt the content or use it commercially. For details, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc- nd/3.0/us/. 12/31//07 No North Korean declaration of its nuclear programs by year’s end. According to Kyodo, the North has also told the United States it is reducing the shifts of workers carrying out disabling. “There has been no last-minute change,” DoS spokesman Tom Casey told reporters. “It's unfortunate but we are going to keep on working on this.” North Korea now risks losing out on diplomatic and economic incentives promised in return for a full nuclear declaration, White House spokesman Scott Stanzel said. “This is an action-for-action process,” he told reporters in Texas, where US President George W. Bush was to ring in 2008 on his ranch. “In order to have action on one side, we have to have action on the other side as well.” “While the disablement is a technical issue, the declaration is a politically strategic one which requires lots of thought,” Kim Sung- Han, an international politics professor at Korea University, told AFP. “The declaration is seen as a litmus test of whether Pyongyang is really willing to be a nuclear-free state. Given the current stalemate, it must have made no strategic decision yet.” (AFP, “N. Korea Fails to Meet Year-End Deadline,” December 31, 2007) Russia’s HFO delivery delayed. 1/1/08 North failed to fulfill its October 3, 2007 promise to declare all its nuclear programs by the end of 2007 -- and the United States did not make a big deal out of it. “I'm not going to put a deadline on it,” said White House spokesman Scott Stanzel. “We think there is an opportunity to move forward.” While saying that North Korea cannot “pretend to give a complete declaration” of its weapons program, Stanzel noted that the United States itself is responsible for some of the delays in the disabling of the 1 Yongbyon nuclear reactor -- for safety and security reasons. “The United States slowed down part of the disablement process,” Stanzel said. “We wanted it to be done in a safe and secure manner.” After the deadline passed, the North issued a New Year's message Tuesday calling on Washington to scrap what it calls “hostile” policies toward the regime, although it made no mention of the missed deadline. “The source of war should be removed and lasting peace be ensured,” the North said in the message carried by KCNA. “An end should be put to the U.S. policy hostile towards (North Korea).” The North also said the armistice signed at the close of the 1950-53 Korean War should be replaced by a peace treaty. The lack of a formal treaty ending the conflict means the Korean peninsula still remains technically at war. It also said the North would “make earnest efforts for stability on the Korean peninsula and peace in the world” and that the country is ready to develop “relations of friendship and cooperation with all the countries that are friendly toward it.” The message, published in the form of a joint editorial by three major North Korean newspapers, also called for strengthening the country's military force, but stopped short of calling for boosting nuclear capabilities. It mentioned “nuclear weapons” only once when it said the “mental power” of the people “is more powerful than nuclear weapons.” (Jaesoon Chang, “North Korea Misses Deadline for Nuclear Declaration,” January 1, 2008) “An end should be put to the U.S. policy hostile toward the DPRK and the Armistice Agreement be replaced with a peace pact.” (KCNA, “Joint New Year Editorial of Leading Newspapers in DPRK,” January 1, 2008) “It’s a rare New Year joint editorial in the face of the incoming conservative administration in South Korea,” said Professor Nam Sung-wook of Korea University who advises Lee's transition team on North Korea policy. “The editorial showed both the North's recognition of the Lee administration and its demands for the incoming administration to honor the summit accords.” Lee's spokesman Joo Ho-yeong said the North's low-key attitude was a positive sign for inter-Korean relations. “We express strong sympathy with the North's flexible position (on inter-Korean affairs),” said Joo. “At the same time, we express hope that Pyongyang will honor the multinational agreement to disable its nuclear programs in a sincere manner to further develop inter-Korean relations under the new South Korean government.” (Jung Sung-ki, “Pyongyang Urges Seoul to Honor Summit Accords,” Korea Times, January 1, 2008) In Japan's relations with its most important ally, the United States, are drifting apart and trans-Pacific tensions could run high in 2008, especially over U.S. diplomacy with North Korea. A key test will come when Washington moves to take North Korea off its list of state sponsors of terrorism. In fact, many Japanese officials and experts wonder how much concern ordinary Japanese have about the abduction issue and what impact taking North Korea off the blacklist would have on bilateral relations. (Kajita Takehiko, “U.S. Policy toward Pyongyang Looks to Test Japan Relations,” Kyodo, January 1, 2008) 1/4/08 During a New Year ceremony on Wednesday, Foreign Minister Song Min-soon put his own spin on the words of Pyongyang regime: “The most important task that we must solve ‘by the people and of our people’ is the nuclear problem, in order to have healthy inter-Korean relations.” It was one of the strongest messages he has sent to North Korea, which habitually invokes “by the people and of our people” in its 2 attempts to get more economic cooperation; the comradeship-of-the-two-Koreas mantra is a favorite in Pyongyang. But when it comes to the nuclear negotiations, the regime prioritizes the role of Washington. Song’s comments reflect the elevating hope in the Foreign Ministry that, with the incoming Lee Myung-bak administration, foreign policy will come before inter-Korean relations. This is indeed a stark contrast to the mood at the Unification Ministry, which has been feeling increasingly anxious about its expected downsizing. Lee vows to put nuclear dismantlement at the top of the agenda. His transition committee has openly stated that the new administration may seek to defer many economic agreements reached with the North, depending on their feasibility and relative importance. Rumors also have it that the Unification Ministry’s role in economic cooperation between the Koreas may be passed on to the Finance and Economy Ministry and the analysis department within the National Intelligence Service; also, various negotiations tasks may be delegated to the Foreign Ministry. The Foreign Ministry, on the other hand, is cautiously welcoming this planned change that is being led by Rep. Park Jin, Lee’s point man on North Korean and other foreign policies. Park has argued for expanding the Foreign Ministry. “When we talk about an effective government, one of the most imminent tasks is to adjust the administrative roles among the ministries related to foreign policy,” Park Jin said during a roundtable hosted by the Korea Economic Daily last week. “The Foreign Ministry only uses 0.7 percent of the government budget. For the world’s tenth largest economy and a nation that has provided a U.N. secretary general, foreign policy must be liberated from the frame of inter-Korean relations, and we need to fortify international cooperation which could eventually enhance inter-Korean relations,” he was quoted as saying. (Lee Jo- hee, “Foreign, Unification Ministries at Odds,” January 4, 2008) “So far, the Foreign Ministry did not have enough say concerning the foreign policy by being sandwiched between Cheong Wa Dae, the Unification Ministry and the National Intelligence Service. We will seek for ways for it to appropriately function as the main administrator,” a source from the transition team said. The Ministry also underscored a need to beef up energy diplomacy to nations in Central Asia, the Middle East and Africa in order to become an advanced economic country. Also on the agenda was the expansion of peace-keeping operations and overseas development assistance, which is also dubbed as one of Lee Myung-bak's keen interests. Through fortified Overseas Development Assistance, Korea will enjoy heightened status in the international community as well as securing a better place to expand energy cooperation with the countries in need, it explained. Regarding relations with Russia, the ministry said it has enjoyed closer cooperation especially in the six-party talks, and cooperation in science, technology and aerospace engineering. A source from the ministry said that the report also included a vision to construct an oil pipeline from Siberia depending on the progress in the six-party talks and consequent inter-Korean relations. (Lee Jo-hee, “Lee to Bolster the Role of Ministry on Foreign Affairs,” Korea Herald, January 5, 2008) “We pointed out the need to consolidate and strengthen the government's foreign policy functions, which are scattered around the Blue House [ROK presidential offices] and the Unification Ministry,” said Lee Dong-gwan, the transition team spokesman. He said it was too early to say whether the Unification Ministry will be merged into the Foreign Ministry.