“Paradigms to Pragmatism: Epidemiology and Biostatistics for the Changing World” Conference Program 2015 CSEB Conference June 1-4, 2015 Hilton Meadowvale Hotel 6750 Mississauga Rd, Mississauga, ON CSEB wishes to thank the conference sponsors for their generous support! 2 Table of Contents WELCOME FEATURED SUPPLEMENTS Sponsor Acknowledgments 2 Concurrent Sessions At-A-Glance 14 Acknowledgements 3 Concurrent Sessions Guide 22 Floorplan 4 Session A 23 Session B 28 Session C 33 PROGRAM Session D 38 Conference At-A-Glance 5 Session E 43 Conference Agenda 6 Session F 48 Keynote Speakers 11 Session G 53 Poster Presentations At-A-Glance 58 GENERAL INFORMATION Poster Presentations Guide 65 Publicity 102 Day 1 66 Day 2 84 Acknowledgements EXECUTIVE PLANNING COMMITTEE LOCAL ORGANIZING COMMITTEE Susan Jaglal (Conference co-chair) Laura Rosella (Chair) Paul Arora (Conference co-chair) Jason Pole Eduardo Franco (Scientific chair) Edwin Khoo James Gomes Tiffany Fitzpatrick Laura Rosella Brendan Smith Sue Bondy Man Wah Yeung Thy Dinh Michael Lebenbaum James Valcour Amalia Plotogea Mark Oremus Kathryn McIsaac Parth Patel Elisa Candido Laura Bogaert Christopher Tait Wendy Lou Felicia Leung Andrew Lam Anja Bilandzic Sue Bondy Lauren Della Mora Aleksandra Zuk Ananya Banerjee Felicia Leung Debeka Navaranjan Deepit Bhatia Audrey Wong Linda Dodds Susan Bondy Audrey Wong ABSTRACT REVIEWERS Kelly Anderson Carmen Chan Jian Liu Paul Arora Christy Costanian Wendy Lou Bonnie Au Thy Dinh Rachel MacKenzie Janak Bajgai Eduardo Franco Colleen Maxwell John Baser Sandra Gawad Gad John Moraros Deepit Bhatia James Gomes Brandy Pratt Anja Bilandzic Steven Hanna Laura Rosella Melissa Billard Anne Holbrook Afshin Vafaei Laura Bogaert Susan Jaglal James Valcour Terry Boyle Philip Jones Audrey Wong Hilary Brown Conrad Kabali Jason (Jian-Yi) Xu Dianne Bryant Derrick Lee Farzana Yasmin Sarah Buchan Yvonne Lee Aleksandra Zuk Kelly Butt Felicia Leung 3 Detailed Program Agenda Monday, June 1, 2015 (Pre-Conference Day) 9:00am – 12:00pm BEST PRACTICES IN GRANT PREPARATION South Studio 3 Presented by Eduardo Franco, McGill University 9:00am – 12:00pm TOWARD A COMPETENCIES FOR EPIDEMIOLOGISTS IN CANADA FRAMEWORK Brittania Presented by Susan Bondy, University of Toronto; Thy Dinh, President, Canadian Society of Epidemiology and Biostatistics 11:00am – 6:30pm PRE-REGISTRATION FOR CONFERENCE Foyer, Graydon Ballroom 1:00pm – 4:00pm CONTINUING EDUCATION TO ENHANCE THE PRACTICE OF PROFESSIONAL AND APPLIED EPIDEMIOLOGY: A NEEDS ASSESSMENT WORKSHOP (Invitation only) 1:00pm – 4:00pm BEST PRACTICES IN PUBLISHING EPIDEMIOLOGIC RESEARCH Brittania Presented by Eduardo Franco, Editor-in-Chief, Preventive Medicine 1:00pm – 4:00pm LONGITUDINAL ANALYSIS USING MIXED MODELS + PROC GLIMMIX Presented by Lorne Rothman, SAS Canada South Studio 3 *Student-only Event - Sponsored by SAS Canada Tuesday, June 2, 2015 (Conference Day 1) 7:30am – 8:30am NETWORKING BREAKFAST & POSTER VIEWING (View Poster Presentations Guide on pages 59 & 66) Graydon Ballroom 7:30am – 8:30am STUDENT CAREERS WORKSHOP (& BREAKFAST) Greenwich Room 8:30am – 8:35am OPENING REMARKS Graydon Ballroom Presented by Paul Arora & Susan Jaglal, Conference Chairs, 2015 CSEB Conference 8:35am – 8:45am WELCOME REMARKS Graydon Ballroom Presented by Howard Hu, Dalla Lana School of Public Health 8:45am – 9:45am KEYNOTE PRESENTATION – A HISTORY OF EPIDEMIOLOGY Presented by Alfredo Morabia, Professor of Epidemiology, Queens College, City University of New York and Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health A widespread belief is that the intimately linked epidemiologic research and public health action of the period between 1945 Graydon Ballroom and 1965, harnessed to address health issues of great population significance, such as the causal relation to tobacco to lung cancer, has given way to action-smothering papers more concerned with the mathematical foundations of epidemiological methods and concepts, and with their applications to identify causes than with the consequences of epidemiologic results for the health of the public in general and for the health of the disadvantaged in particular. Is this belief accurate? 9:45am – 11:00am CONCURRENT SESSIONS A (View Concurrent Sessions Guides on pages 15 & 23) A1 CANCER I South Studio 3 A2 INFECTIOUS DISEASES I Greenwich Room A3 INJURY PREVENTION I Brittania Room A4 SOCIAL DETERMINANTS I Club Studio 3 A5 METHODS I Graydon D 11:00am – 12:00pm SUB-PLENARY SESSIONS SP1 HORIZONS IN BIOSTATISTICS Could Imperfect Adjudication of Causes of Death Have Affected The Results of a Trial of Prostate Screening? A Statistical Investigation Presented by Stephen Walter, McMaster University A European randomised trial of PSA screening has shown a substantial reduction in prostate cancer mortality. Accurate adjudication of the underlying cause of death is crucial for a conclusive evaluation of the effectiveness of screening, but there is no gold standard, and a major challenge is the potential misattribution of the cause of death in elderly men with multiple comorbidities. In order to determine if misclassification of causes of death might have biased the results, we analysed the variation between the trial adjudicators in six participating countries. Latent class models were formulated to estimate the accuracy of adjudication, and to assess if accuracy might have been differentially favourable to one or other of the randomised study arms. Finally we used the model to evaluate if correcting for variability in adjudication might substantially South Studio 3 modify the main trial results on the effect of screening on the rate of prostate cancer death. Targeted inference: Aligning Statistical Tools with Epidemiologic Goals Presented by Robert Platt, McGill University This session will address the goals of inference in epidemiology, and propose “targeted inference” as a general paradigm for efficient inference. In general, traditional statistical methods and epidemiologic designs, as typically used, do not focus on parameters of interest. Participants will hear about newer methods for epidemiologic inference designed to focus on key, well-defined parameters of interest, and to be efficient and robust to mis-specification of non-essential components of the statistical model. Robert Platt will illustrate the use of these methods through examples in pharmacoepidemiology. 6 SP2 VIOLENCE PREVENTION Violence Reduction, Paradigms and Pragmatism Presented by Peter Donnelly, MD, President and CEO Public Health Ontario Greenwich Room To describe the importance of violence reduction as a Public Health issue. To discuss concepts in violence reduction and share challenges in undertaking pragmatic research in this area. SP3 PUBLIC HEALTH RESPONSE TO EBOLA All Epidemics are the Same, All Epidemics are Different: Lessons Learned from Ebola Presented by David N. Fisman, Professor of Epidemiology, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, Dalla Lana School of Public Health The 2014-14 West African Ebola outbreak has sickened tens of thousands of individuals in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea. Efforts to model and forecast epidemic growth were hampered by limited data, as well as the inability of forecast models to anticipate changes in population attitudes, behaviors and knowledge. At the same time, we know that in general terms, epidemics, and human responses to epidemics, have important commonalities. I will describe our efforts to model and forecast the Ebola epidemic, and show that our current approach was anticipated by epidemiologists dealing with similar challenges in the 19th century. Brittania Room The Owl of Minerva: Are lessons ever truly learned? Presented by Ross Upshur, Professor, Department of Family and Community Medicine and Dalla Lana School of Public Health, Canada Research Chair in Primary Care Research During this session, participants will hear a review of the West Africa Ebola Virus Disease outbreak through the lens of experience gained in the past two decades of involvement in infectious disease outbreaks of global significance. Ross Upshur will raise questions as to how organizations interact both positively and negatively. The expected outcome would be for epidemiologists to be sensitized to the difficulties of institutional memory with the hope that they will not suffer the same lapses in their careers. 12:00pm – 1:00pm NETWORKING LUNCH & POSTER VIEWING (View Poster Presentations Guide on pages 59 & 66) Graydon Ballroom 12:00pm – 1:00pm LUNCH WORKSHOP Epidemiology and Public Policy: The role of the International Joint Policy Committee of the Societies of Epidemiology (IJPC-SE) Presented by Mark Oremus, Communications Officer, IJPC-SE and Vice President, CSEB; and Colin Soskolne, Professor emeritus, University of Alberta; Adjunct Professor, Faculty of Health, University of Canberra; Chair, International Joint Policy Committee of the Societies of Epidemiology The IJPC-SE is a consortium currently including 18 epidemiology societies whose mandate is to facilitate and coordinate Greenwich Room joint policy actions among its member societies. The IJPC-SE is internationally known for having most recently developed a position statement that puts forth, from an epidemiological perspective, clear evidence confirming that all forms of asbestos should be banned. This statement was developed in response to the fact that some countries continue to promote the “safe use” of asbestos. The purpose of the symposium is to highlight the role of the IJPC-SE in public policy and its modus operandi. More broadly, the symposium