→ THE INTERNATIONAL FORUM ON SATELLITE EO AND GEOHAZARDS The Santorini Conference Santorini, Greece, 21–23 May 2012 Ph. BALLY (Editor) ESA/ESRIN → THE INTERNATIONAL FORUM ON SATELLITE EO AND GEOHAZARDS The Santorini Conference Santorini, Greece, 21–23 May 2012 Ph. BALLY (Editor) ESA/ESRIN How to cite this document: Ph. Bally Ed. (2012), Scientific and Technical Memorandum of The International Forum on Satellite EO and Geohazards, 21-23 May 2012, Santorini Greece. doi:10.5270/esa-geo-hzrd-2012 http://esamultimedia.esa.int/docs/EarthObservation/Geohazards/esa-geo-hz- rd-2012.pdf Publication The International Forum on Satellite EO and Geohazards (Draft) Layout ESA EO Graphics Bureau ISBN 978-92-9092-097-7 Date October 2012 Copyright © 2012 European Space Agency Preface Preface The European Space Agency (ESA) and the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) have worked together for several years on the specific topic of disasters and share, in particular, a deep interest in geohazards. This became more evident with the joint collaboration to host the International Forum on Satellite Earth Observations for Geohazards (the Santorini Conference) from 21-23 May, 2012 in Santorini, Greece. Agence France Presse has reported that, in 2010, disaster events caused the death of almost 300 000 people, affected another 220 million and resulted in more than $120 billion of economic damages. While 2011 saw a drop in fatalities, the economic damages tripled to over $366 billion. The Japanese earthquake and tsunami of March 2011 alone accounted for over half of these damages. By 2050, the number of people exposed to storms and earthquakes in large cities could double, underlining the need for better geohazard-related information for improved disaster risk management (DRM). Earth observation (EO) satellites have a major role to play in contributing to the understanding, mitigation, preparedness and management of geophysical risks. Working together with the research community and industry, ESA has a long history of science and application development using EO to support geohazard risk management. ESA is one of the founders of the International Charter Space and Major Disasters (the Charter) which since its inception in 2000 has been activated in response to over 330 major disasters in more than 120 countries. At the other end of the risk management cycle, ESA initiated a range of mitigation precursor projects looking at risk assessment to better characterize hazards and risks. These include supporting the development of sustainable services via nationally mandated organisations in Europe, such as the Terrafirma and Risk EOS actions of the Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) Service Element (GSE) programme. Such services contribute to the realisation of a GMES portfolio that the European Commission (EC) manages today. In Europe, GMES will provide the foundation for further development of geohazard services using satellite-based Earth observation. The new Sentinel missions, especially Sentinel-1 and 2, will form the backbone of GMES operational services to the geohazard community. The full implementation of the Sentinel programme, when used together with the capacities of existing national missions such as COSMO-SkyMed, TerraSAR-X, Pleiades, Radarsat-2 and the planned Radarsat Constellation Mission (RCM), will offer European and global users huge improvements in both temporal and spatial resolution, as well as geographic coverage. On a global basis, ESA is collaborating with both the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS), the space coordination arm of GEO, and GEO itself, to examine activities of member Agencies across a broad range of hydro- meteorological and geophysical hazards, covering the entire disaster cycle. The aim is to ensure more effective and balanced efforts among the agencies by assessing gaps and overlaps. In 2007, ESA and GEO convened the 3rd International Workshop on Geohazards in Frascati, Italy, which addressed geophysical risks and the contribution of EO to geohazard research. As a result, the Geohazard Supersites and Natural Laboratories (GSNL) were created and remain the premier contribution of satellite EO to geohazard research. The GSNL are an initiative of the international geohazard scientific community, providing access to space- borne and in-situ geophysical data over selected sites prone to geohazards. In Europe, more than 50 geological surveys are committed to becoming users of EO-based terrain deformation services. In Italy, the government has purchased continuous InSAR coverage for the complete territory; the Swiss authorities have adopted EO as a method for monitoring landslide risks. Examples like this 3 STM draft demonstrate that geohazards are also an area with a strongly developed user community. There is also ample evidence of this through the long-standing work of the Geohazard Community of Practice (GHCP) within GEO and within the more focused communities of the specific geohazards examined at the Santorini Conference: seismic hazards, volcanic hazards, landslide hazards, inactive mine hazards and coastal lowland subsidence hazards. The Santorini Conference provided the geohazard community with the opportunity to forge a vision and concrete objectives that will serve as the basis for agency planning in relation to investment on further use of EO. These objectives are captured in each of the thematic chapters addressed in the report. The publication of this volume on the Santorini Conference marks a milestone in the international effort to apply satellite EO to geohazards, by defining clear objectives for each of the geohazard communities listed above, and charting a vision for the implementation of strategies to achieve these objectives. ESA and GEO are proud to have been the conveners of this important event. We believe the publication of this report will become a landmark in the improved application of satellite-EO to geohazard risk management for many years to come. Volker Liebig Barbara J Ryan Director of Earth Observation, Secretariat Director, European Space Agency (ESA) Group on Earth Observations (GEO) 4 Contents Contents Preface . 3 Executive Summary . 7 Workshop Participants . 17 Methodology . 21 1. Perspectives Concerning Satellite EO and Geohazard Risk Management: seismic hazards . 25 1.1 Scope . 25 1.2 Seismic hazards and global exposure . 26 1.3 Users and their information needs . 28 1.4 The European case . 31 1.5 Current state of satellite-based EO applications & services . 33 1.6 The way forward . 35 2. Volcanic Hazards . 41 2.1 Scope . 41 2.2 Volcanic hazards and global exposure . 41 2.3 Users and their information needs . 43 2.4 The European case . 46 2.5 Current state of satellite-based EO applications and services . 46 2.6 The way forward . 53 3. Landslide Hazards . 59 3.1 Scope . 59 3.2 Landslide hazards and global exposure. 59 3.3 Users and their information needs . 61 3.4 The European case . 64 3.5 Current state of satellite-based EO applications and services . 66 3.6 The way forward . 73 4. Inactive Mine Hazards . 81 4.1 Scope . 81 4.2 Abandoned mining hazards and exposure . 81 4.3 Users and their information needs . 82 4.4 The European case . 83 4.5 Current state of satellite-based EO applications and services . 84 4.6 The way forward . 87 5 STM draft 5. Coastal Lowland Hazards and Flood Defence . 91 5.1 Scope . 91 5.2 Coastal flooding and subsidence . 91 5.3 Users and their information needs . 96 5.4 The European case . 98 5.5 Current state of satellite-based EO applications & services . .100 5.6 The way forward . 105 6. Industrial Perspectives . 111 6.1 Scope and Context . 111 6.2 Overview of Industry Capability and Capacity . 111 6.3 Views and Perspectives of Industry . 124 6.4 Feedback from Users of Industrial Services . 126 6.5 Future Vision for Industrial Services . 129 7. Global Perspectives: GEO, CEOS and other international aspects . 133 7.1 Overview . 133 7.2 Seismic Hazards . 134 7.3 Volcanic Hazards . 135 7.4 Landslide Hazards . 135 7.5 Inactive Mine Hazards . 136 7.6 Coastal Lowland Subsidence and Flood Defence . 136 Annex 1 – Listing of research and development issues . .139 Annex 2 – References . 153 Annex 3 – Acronyms . .163 6 Executive Summary Executive Summary Overview The International Forum on Satellite Earth Observation and Geohazards (the Santorini Conference) was organised and chaired by ESA in association with the Group on Earth Observations (GEO). It gathered over 140 participants from 20 countries including European countries, the US, Canada, Japan and China. Over 70 organisations were represented, ranging from international organisations (e.g. World Bank) to public institutes, space agencies, universities and the private sector. From the private sector, 12 companies attended including non-EO service providers (e.g. Deltares) and sectoral users (e.g. Willis – global insurance broker). The Santorini Conference was an opportunity for users and practitioners of the geohazard community to come together and discuss the state-of-the-art in satellite-based Earth observations (EO) and objectives for the community over the coming 5 to 10 years. Sessions examined community papers drafted before the event covering five critical areas of application: volcanoes; landslides; seismic hazards; coastal subsidence and flood defence; and inactive mine hazards. Another session addressed industrial services presenting the current and immediate future plans for observations and issues and strategies to address emerging market opportunities. This report