The Food Poverty Atlas SMALL AREA FOOD POVERTY ESTIMATION Statistics for addressing food and nutrition insecurity in Zimbabwe SEPTEMBER, 2016 2 The Food Poverty Atlas SMALL AREA FOOD POVERTY ESTIMATION Statistics for addressing food and nutrition insecurity in Zimbabwe SEPTEMBER, 2016 i © UNICEF Zimbabwe, The World Bank and Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency All rights reserved. No part of this report may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or by any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency 20th Floor, Kaguvi Building, Cnr 4th Street and Central Avenue, Harare, Zimbabwe P.O. Box CY342, Causeway, Harare, Zimbabwe. Tel: (+263-4) 706681/8 or (+263-4) 703971/7 Fax: (+263-4) 762494 E-mail: [email protected] This publication is available on the following websites: www.unicef.org/zimbabwe www.worldbank.org/ www.zimstat.co.zw/ ISBN: 978-92-806-4824-9 The Food Poverty Atlas was produced by the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (ZIMSTAT). Technical and financial support was provided by the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) and the World Bank Design and layout: K. Moodie Photographs by: © UNICEF/2015/T. Mukwazhi ii Food poverty prevalence at a glance Map 1: Food poverty prevalence by district* Figure 1 Number of food poor 400,000 350,000 and non poor households 300,000 by province* 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 N.B 1. No. of food poor hholds is the Harare Central Midlands number of households living in Masvingo Bulawayo Mash East Mash MatSouth MatNorth Mash West Mash extreme poverty Manicaland Mash 2. No. of non-poor hholds is the number of households deemed not poor and above the Total Con- No. of food poor hhs No. of non poor hhs sumption Poverty Line (TCPL) iii Map 2: Food poverty population density by province* iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Food poverty prevalence at a glance............................................................................................iii Acronyms .......................................................................................................................................vii Glossary of Terms.........................................................................................................................viii Foreword .........................................................................................................................................ix Executive Summary........................................................................................................................xi Chapter 1: Introduction ...................................................................................................................1 Chapter 2: Methodology for Food Poverty Measures ..................................................................3 Small Area Poverty Estimation......................................................................................................3 Finding a good imputation model ..................................................................................................4 Chapter 3: Results for the Food Poverty Measures and Living Conditions ..............................9 Comparison between PICES and Small Area Estimates (SAE)....................................................9 Food poverty mapping analysis by province and district.............................................................10 Bulawayo Province: food poverty prevalence by district .............................................................11 Manicaland Province: food poverty prevalence by district ..........................................................12 Mashonaland Central Province: food poverty prevalence by district ..........................................14 Mashonaland East Province: food poverty prevalence by district...............................................16 Mashonaland West Province: food poverty prevalence by district.............................................18 Matabeleland North Province: food poverty prevalence by district .............................................20 Matabeleland South Province: food poverty prevalence by district.............................................22 Midlands Province: food poverty prevalence by district ..............................................................24 Masvingo Province: food poverty prevalence by district .............................................................26 Harare Province: food poverty prevalence by district..................................................................31 Chapter 4: Conclusions ................................................................................................................31 Appendix 1.0: Small Area Estimation results..............................................................................33 v vi ACRONYMS CBD Central Business District FPL Food poverty line (the lower line) Hhold Household No. Number NR Natural Region (agro-ecological region) PDL Poverty Datum Line PICES Poverty, Income, Consumption and Expenditure Survey Po Poverty Prevalence SAE Small Area Estimation Se Standard Error TCPL Total Consumption Poverty Line (the upper line) UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund UMP Uzumba-Maramba-Pfungwe USD United States Dollar ZIMSTAT Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency vii GLOSSARY OF TERMS Poverty means not having an income or consumption sufficient to support specific normative functioning. It is generally defined as a state of being poor. Food Poverty Line (FPL) or Lower Line represents the minimum consumption expenditure necessary to ensure that each household member can (if all expenditures were devoted to food) consume a minimum food basket representing 2100 calories per day. Extreme poverty represents households whose per capita consumption expenditure falls below the FPL or the lower poverty line. Total Consumption Poverty Line (TCPL) or Upper Line represents the cost of a given standard of living that must be attained if a person is deemed not to be poor. Final Consumption Expenditures are actual and imputed household costs incurred on individual goods and services for the benefit of the household. Actual costs include spending on food, beverages, tobacco, etc. and imputed costs include consumption of own produced goods, rentals of owner occupiers, income in kind, etc. Dependency Ratio is a ratio of those typically not in the labour force to those typically in the labour force. It is defined as the total of all persons less than 15 years of age and over 64 years of age divided by the number of persons aged 15-64 years, multiplied by 100. No. of food poor hholds is the number of households living in extreme poverty No. of non-poor hholds is the number of households deemed not poor and above the Total Consumption Poverty Line (TCPL) Prevalence (or incidence) of poverty (also known as the headcount index) represents the total population (either people or households) whose consumption expenditures fall below the poverty line as a proportion of the total population. Poverty gap (index) is specific information that can be generated about the size of the transfer to the poor necessary to eliminate poverty. The index is a measure of the concentration of poverty. The Poverty gap index estimates the depth of poverty by considering how far, on average, the poor are from the poverty line. The greater the gap the more severe the poverty is. Poverty severity index sometimes referred to as the squared poverty gap index, takes into account not only the distance separating the poor from the poverty line (the poverty gap), but also the variation in poverty among the poor. Poverty Datum Line represents the cost of a given level of living which must be attained if a person is deemed not to be poor viii FOREWORD The Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (ZIMSTAT) conducted the 2011/12 Poverty, Income, Consumption and Expenditure Survey (PICES) from June 2011 to May 2012. The Agency also conducted a Population Census in August 2012. The Food Poverty Atlas provides statistics for dealing with food and nutrition insecurity issues. It is based on data derived from the PICES 2011/12 survey results and the 2012 Population Census results. The Food Poverty Atlas covers prevalence of food poverty and other analytical issues at ward and district levels. Poverty is a multi-disciplinary subject and as such ZIMSTAT worked closely with the World Bank and the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF). The ZIMSTAT PICES Technical team produced this Food Poverty Atlas while the World Bank and UNICEF provided technical and financial assistance. The completion of this Atlas follows extensive consultation and collaboration between the ZIMSTAT poverty analysis team, the World Bank and UNICEF. The Food Poverty Atlas results will be of use by Government ministries and departments and the private sector, academia, researchers and many others. I wish to express my profound gratitude to UNICEF and the World Bank and the Government of Zimbabwe for their support throughout the exercise. This project owes its success to the collaborative and concerted efforts of these parties. I would also like to thank the respondents who provided information during the 2012 Population Census and the PICES 2011/12 Survey and many others who were involved in making the computation of the small area estimation in Zimbabwe a success. Furthermore, my sincere gratitude also goes to the members of the PICES Analysis Team for successfully implementing